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7-member ensemble-based, real-time, operational coastal circulation, wind and wave forecast system

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ptaeb2014/Multi-stage

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Seven-member ensemble, high-resolution estuarine forecast system known as Ensemble-Multistage

(Adjusted one-way nesting technique for coastal estuarine modeling in the ADCIRC model)

MultiStage tool is compiled from developed and existing software components for automating nesting technique in the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model system for high-resolution coastal estuarine modeling. The tool is developed with the aim of reducing expensive computational cost of with high-resolution ADCIRC modeling, and improving the forecast skill by performing ensemble approach and providing probabilistic solutions.

The current version supports conventional one-way nesting technique applied in the ADCIRC model. A large-scale coarse-resolution model communicates to a fine-scale high-resolution model through the specification of the open boundaries of the fine-resolution mesh. Nearshore predictions are made by the large-scale coarse and estuarine predictions are made by the fine-scale high-reosluion mesh runs.

The core model, the ADCIRC+SWAN model, is forced by seven wind forcing per cycle. Wind forcings include deterministic North American Meso-scale Model (NAM), ensemble mean, ensemble mean + 1 standard deviation, and ensemble mean - 1 standard deviation of Short Range Regional Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and ensemble mean, ensemble mean + 1 standard deviation, and ensemble mean - 1 standard deviation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).

In the development of the Multi-stage tool, I take advantage of the existing software infrastructures and methods in the ADCIRC Surge Guidance System (ASGS) (https://github.com/jasonfleming/asgs).