updated spoils math

markdown/articles/2023/10/10/spoiling-for-a-fight.md

@@ -193,10 +193,11 @@ The chance of drawing 1 of each in a 7 card hand is 14.5%, computed via a
 multivariate hypergeometric distribution. If you mulligan as low as 4, your
 chance of having 1 of each becomes ~47%. With 4 copies of Spoils of the Vault in
 your deck, your chance of having 1 of each combo piece, or one of either combo
-piece plus a Spoils, rise to 40%, and if you mulligan as low as 4 your chance of
-finding your combo pieces increases to nearly 88%!. Even factoring in that you
-will only survive Spoils around 85% of the time, you still end up with a much
-higher probability of finding those combo pieces.
+piece plus a Spoils, rise to 34%, and if you mulligan as low as 4 your chance of
+finding what you need increases to nearly 82%!. Even factoring in that you
+will only survive Spoils around 85% of the time, you still end up with a nice 69%
+probability of surviving with those 2 combo pieces in hand, over 20% higher than
+Spoils.
 
 ## Spoils of the Vault in Doomsday