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+++ title = "New Voters" +++

Newly eligible to vote based on age

Children who were 14 to 17-years old at the time of the 2020 election will be of age to vote for the 2024 election if they are citizens.

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Gender</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Arizona</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Georgia</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Michigan</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Nevada</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">North Carolina</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Pennsylvania</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Wisconsin</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">M14</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">49,314</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">76,728</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">64,878</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">20,648</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">69,120</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">80,041</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">38,868</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">M15</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">49,487</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">76,928</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">66,271</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">20,690</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">69,202</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">80,113</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">38,736</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">M16</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">49,613</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">76,829</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">67,403</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">20,669</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">69,441</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">81,130</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">39,287</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">M17</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">48,604</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">75,491</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">66,978</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">20,348</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">68,463</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">80,446</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">38,025</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">F14</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46,967</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">73,160</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62,026</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,669</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">66,133</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">75,657</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">36,904</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">F15</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">47,416</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">73,275</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62,115</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,677</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">66,411</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">76,125</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">36,639</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">F16</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">46,989</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">74,000</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">64,352</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,232</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">66,083</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">77,305</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">37,258</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">F17</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">45,872</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">71,978</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">63,572</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,027</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">65,174</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">75,934</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">35,825</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">New voting age</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">384,262</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">598,389</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">517,595</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">159,960</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">540,027</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">626,751</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">301,542</td>
    </tr>
        <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Estimated eligible</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">353.521</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">556,502</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">486,539</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">155,161</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">523,826</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">595,413</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">295,511</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

[Source: 2020 Census Table P14 | SEX BY AGE FOR THE POPULATION UNDER 20 YEARS ](https://data.census.gov/table/DECENNIALDHC2020.P14?q=P14&g=040XX00US04,13,26,32,37,42,55&d=DEC Demographic and Housing Characteristics)

Some of these new voters also became naturalized citizens between the 2020 and 2024 elections, as shown below. Proportions of citizens to total population of each age cohort was estimated based on the proportion shown for each state in 2022 from the source used for the table below.

Even at turnouts as low as 50% (comparable to 2020) this demographic dwarfs the 2020 margins of victory in the seven swing states. How they break between Harris and Trump has the potential to determine the outcome of the election.

Comparison of First-Time vs. Repeat Voter Turnout

  • First-Time Voters: First-time voters, while showing increased enthusiasm and participation in 2020, often face higher hurdles:
    • Registration Challenges: They must navigate the registration process for the first time, which can be a barrier.
    • Lack of Voting Habit: Without the habit of voting, first-time voters might need more motivation or mobilization to participate.
    • Information Gaps: They might lack information about where, when, and how to vote.
  • Repeat Voters: Typically, repeat voters have higher turnout rates due to several factors:
    • Habitual Voting: Voting behavior can be habitual. Those who have voted in past elections are more likely to vote again.
    • Familiarity with the Process: Repeat voters are generally more familiar with the voting process and less deterred by logistical barriers.
    • Stable Registration: They are more likely to have stable registration status and less likely to encounter registration issues.

Naturalized

Citizens who have became naturalized after the 2020 election will be eligible to vote in 2024.

Those new citizen represent numbers equal to

  • 84% of Trumps winning margin in North Carolina
  • 41% of Harris's winning margin in Michigan
  • 127% of Harris's winning margin in Nevada
  • 132% of Harris's winning margin in Pennsylvania
  • 760% of Harris's winning margin in Arizona
  • 856% of Harris's winning margin in Georgia
<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">State</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">FY21</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">FY22</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">FY23</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">FY24</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Total</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">2020 Margin</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Ratio</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">AZ</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">17,512</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">16,396</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">25,710</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,872</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">79,490</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">10,457</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">7.60</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">GA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">16,476</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">28,440</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">30,696</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">25,204</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">100,816</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">11,779</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">8.56</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">11,716</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">16,077</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,754</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">15,849</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">63,396</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">154,188</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.41</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">8,061</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">10,573</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">13,347</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">10,660</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">42,642</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">33,596</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.27</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NC</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">13,173</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">13,626</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,986</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">15,595</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">62,380</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">-74,483</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.84</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">PA</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">19,693</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">26,747</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">33,066</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">26,502</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">106,008</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">80,555</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.32</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">5,029</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">6,125</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">8,091</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">6,415</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">25,660</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">20,682</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.24</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table

Source: Yearbook of Immigration Statistics 2022: Table 22 Persons Naturalized by State or Territory of Residence: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2022

While turnout of newly naturalized citizens lags the general population, it is still substantial, with turnout running only 9% behind the general levels in the 2020 election. New American Voters: 2022