diff --git a/content/gsi/01-gsi.qmd b/content/gsi/01-gsi.qmd index b4b0ef5..1422632 100644 --- a/content/gsi/01-gsi.qmd +++ b/content/gsi/01-gsi.qmd @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ --- title: "Intro a GSI" +bibliography: references.bib --- ## The GSI assimilation system diff --git a/content/gsi/references.bib b/content/gsi/references.bib new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8e01812 --- /dev/null +++ b/content/gsi/references.bib @@ -0,0 +1,2403 @@ +@article{aksoy2009, + title = {A {{Multicase Comparative Assessment}} of the {{Ensemble Kalman Filter}} for {{Assimilation}} of {{Radar Observations}}. {{Part I}}: {{Storm-Scale Analyses}}}, + shorttitle = {A {{Multicase Comparative Assessment}} of the {{Ensemble Kalman Filter}} for {{Assimilation}} of {{Radar Observations}}. {{Part I}}}, + author = {Aksoy, Altuğ and Dowell, David C. and Snyder, Chris}, + date = {2009-06-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {137}, + number = {6}, + pages = {1805--1824}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/2008MWR2691.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/137/6/1805/70667/A-Multicase-Comparative-Assessment-of-the-Ensemble}, + urldate = {2020-11-16}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Aksoy/aksoy_2009_a_multicase_comparative_assessment_of_the_ensemble_kalman_filter_for.pdf} +} + +@article{aksoy2010, + title = {A {{Multicase Comparative Assessment}} of the {{Ensemble Kalman Filter}} for {{Assimilation}} of {{Radar Observations}}. {{Part II}}: {{Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts}}}, + shorttitle = {A {{Multicase Comparative Assessment}} of the {{Ensemble Kalman Filter}} for {{Assimilation}} of {{Radar Observations}}. {{Part II}}}, + author = {Aksoy, Altuğ and Dowell, David C. and Snyder, Chris}, + date = {2010-04-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {138}, + number = {4}, + pages = {1273--1292}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/2009MWR3086.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/138/4/2009mwr3086.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract The quality of convective-scale ensemble forecasts, initialized from analysis ensembles obtained through the assimilation of radar observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is investigated for cases whose behaviors span supercellular, linear, and multicellular organization. This work is the companion to , which focused on the quality of analyses during the 60-min analysis period. Here, the focus is on 30-min ensemble forecasts initialized at the end of that period. As in , the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a simplified cloud model at 2-km horizontal grid spacing. Various observation-space and state-space verification metrics, computed both for ensemble means and individual ensemble members, are employed to assess the quality of ensemble forecasts comparatively across cases. While the cases exhibit noticeable differences in predictability, the forecast skill in each case, as measured by various metrics, decays on a time scale of tens of minutes. The ensemble spread also increases rapidly but significant outlier members or clustering among members are not encountered. Forecast quality is seen to be influenced to varying degrees by the respective initial soundings. While radar data assimilation is able to partially mitigate some of the negative effects in some situations, the supercell case, in particular, remains difficult to predict even after 60 min of data assimilation.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/6Z9CM44Q/Aksoy et al_2010_A Multicase Comparative Assessment of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for.pdf} +} + +@article{andersson1991, + title = {Global {{Observing System Experiments}} on {{Operational Statistical Retrievals}} of {{Satellite Sounding Data}}}, + author = {Andersson, E. and Hollingsworth, A. and Kelly, G. and Lönnberg, P. and Pailleux, J. and Zhang, Z.}, + date = {1991-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {119}, + number = {8}, + pages = {1851--1865}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<1851:GOSEOO>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/119/8/1520-0493_1991_119_1851_goseoo_2_0_co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract We report an observing system experiment on satellite sounding data during a 15.5-day period in January–February 1987, using the operational European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system as it was in late July 1988. The forecast results show a negative impact of the satellite sounding data (SATEM) in the Northern Hemisphere, and a strong positive impact in the Southern Hemisphere. The model and analysis developments implemented between July 1987 and July 1988 led to forecast improvements whether or not SATEM data were used. Improvements were larger in the NoSATEM context. Consequently, the neutral Northern Hemisphere impact of SATEM data with the 1987 system became a negative impact with the 1988 system. Thus, recent changes in the analysis–forecast system have made the system more sensitive to data, and therefore more vulnerable to bad data. We show that the statistical retrievals have serious errors and biases. The biases are airmass-dependent and so have strong regional variations.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/QC8RUPDA/Andersson et al_1991_Global Observing System Experiments on Operational Statistical Retrievals of.pdf} +} + +@article{arruti2021, + title = {Sistema de Control de Calidad de Datos de Radar en el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Parte I: Descripción del algoritmo}, + shorttitle = {Sistema de Control de Calidad de Datos de Radar en el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Parte I}, + author = {Arruti, Aldana and Maldonado, Paula and Rugna, Martín and Sacco, Maximiliano and Ruiz, Juan José and Vidal, Luciano}, + date = {2021-03}, + publisher = {{Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Dirección Nacional de Ciencia e Innovación en Productos y Servicios. Dirección de Productos de Modelado Ambiental y Sensores Remotos.}}, + url = {http://repositorio.smn.gob.ar/handle/20.500.12160/1537}, + urldate = {2023-04-13}, + abstract = {En la presente Nota Técnica se describe el sistema de control de calidad para datos de radares meteorológicos implementado en el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de Argentina. En particular, se abordan las principales características de los filtros desarrollados para corregir en la variable reflectividad fenómenos asociados a interferencias electromagnéticas, ecos no meteorológicos, bloqueo topográfico, y atenuación de la potencia del haz de radar, entre otros. Asimismo, se realiza un breve análisis del desempeño del algoritmo propuesto a partir de dos casos de estudio.}, + langid = {spanish}, + annotation = {Accepted: 2021-04-07T17:43:56Z}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/I3JASAAH/Arruti et al_2021_Sistema de Control de Calidad de Datos de Radar en el Servicio Meteorológico.pdf} +} + +@article{bae2022, + title = {Forecast {{Characteristics}} of {{Radar Data Assimilation Based}} on the {{Scales}} of {{Precipitation Systems}}}, + author = {Bae, Jeong-Ho and Min, Ki-Hong}, + date = {2022-01}, + journaltitle = {Remote Sensing}, + volume = {14}, + number = {3}, + pages = {605}, + publisher = {{Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute}}, + issn = {2072-4292}, + doi = {10.3390/rs14030605}, + url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/14/3/605}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Radar data with high spatiotemporal resolution and automatic weather station (AWS) data are used in the data assimilation experiment to improve the precipitation forecast of a numerical model. The numerical model considered in this study is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with double-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WDM6). We calculated the radar equivalent reflectivity factor using high resolution WRF and compared it with radar observations in South Korea. To compare the precipitation forecast characteristics of the three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation of radar data, four experiments were performed based on the scales of precipitation systems. Comparison of the 24 h accumulated rainfall with surface observation data, contoured frequency by altitude diagram (CFAD), time–height cross sections (THCS), and vertical hydrometeor profiles was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation of precipitation. The model simulations were performed with and without 3D-VAR radar reflectivity, radial velocity and AWS assimilation for two mesoscale convective cases and two synoptic scale cases. The combined effect of the radar and AWS data assimilation experiment improved the location of the precipitation area and rainfall intensity compared to the control run. There is a noticeable scale dependence in the improvement of precipitation systems. Improvements in simulating mesoscale convective systems were larger compared to synoptically driven precipitation systems.}, + issue = {3}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {3D-Var,data assimilation,precipitation,radar,WRF}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/A88VJFN6/Bae_Min_2022_Forecast Characteristics of Radar Data Assimilation Based on the Scales of.pdf} +} + +@article{banos2019, + title = {Assimilation of {{GPSRO Bending Angle Profiles}} into the {{Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model}}}, + author = {Banos, Ivette H. and Sapucci, Luiz F. and Cucurull, Lidia and Bastarz, Carlos F. and Silveira, Bruna B.}, + date = {2019-01}, + journaltitle = {Remote Sensing}, + volume = {11}, + number = {3}, + pages = {256}, + publisher = {{Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute}}, + doi = {10.3390/rs11030256}, + url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/11/3/256}, + urldate = {2020-09-15}, + abstract = {The Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) technique allows valuable information to be obtained about the state of the atmosphere through vertical profiles obtained at various processing levels. From the point of view of data assimilation, there is a consensus that less processed data are preferable because of their lowest addition of uncertainties in the process. In the GPSRO context, bending angle data are better to assimilate than refractivity or atmospheric profiles; however, these data have not been properly explored by data assimilation at the CPTEC (acronym in Portuguese for Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies). In this study, the benefits and possible deficiencies of the CPTEC modeling system for this data source are investigated. Three numerical experiments were conducted, assimilating bending angles and refractivity profiles in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system coupled with the Brazilian Global Atmospheric Model (BAM). The results highlighted the need for further studies to explore the representation of meteorological systems at the higher levels of the BAM model. Nevertheless, more benefits were achieved using bending angle data compared with the results obtained assimilating refractivity profiles. The highest gain was in the data usage exploring 73.4\% of the potential of the RO technique when bending angles are assimilated. Additionally, gains of 3.5\% and 2.5\% were found in the root mean square error values in the zonal and meridional wind components and geopotencial height at 250 hPa, respectively.}, + issue = {3}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {bending angle,data assimilation,GPSRO,GSI,numerical weather prediction,radio occultation data}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Banos/banos_2019_assimilation_of_gpsro_bending_angle_profiles_into_the_brazilian_global.pdf} +} + +@article{banos2021, + title = {Assessment of the Data Assimilation Framework for the {{Rapid Refresh Forecast System}} v0.1 and Impacts on Forecasts of Convective Storms}, + author = {Banos, Ivette H. and Mayfield, Will D. and Ge, Guoqing and Sapucci, Luiz F. and Carley, Jacob R. and Nance, Louisa}, + date = {2021-10-05}, + journaltitle = {Geoscientific Model Development Discussions}, + pages = {1--36}, + publisher = {{Copernicus GmbH}}, + issn = {1991-959X}, + doi = {10.5194/gmd-2021-289}, + url = {https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2021-289/}, + urldate = {2022-04-21}, + abstract = {{$<$}p{$><$}strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor"{$>$}Abstract.{$<$}/strong{$>$} The Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) is currently under development and aims to replace the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational suite of regional and convective scale modeling systems in the next upgrade. In order to achieve skillful forecasts comparable to the current operational suite, each component of the RRFS needs to be configured through exhaustive testing and evaluation. The current data assimilation component uses the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. In this study, various data assimilation algorithms and configurations in GSI are assessed for their impacts on RRFS analyses and forecasts of a squall line over Oklahoma on 4 May 2020. Results show that a baseline RRFS run without data assimilation is able to represent the observed convection, but with stronger cells and large location errors. With data assimilation, these errors are reduced, especially in the 4 and 6\ h forecasts using 75\ \% of the ensemble background error covariance (BEC) and with the supersaturation removal function activated in GSI. Decreasing the vertical ensemble localization radius in the first 10 layers of the hybrid analysis results in overall less skillful forecasts. Convection and precipitation are overforecast in most forecast hours when using planetary boundary layer pseudo-observations, but the root mean square error and bias of the 2\ h forecast of 2\ m dew point temperature are reduced by 1.6\ K during the afternoon hours. Lighter hourly accumulated precipitation is predicted better when using 100\ \% ensemble BEC in the first 4\ h forecast, but heavier hourly accumulated precipitation is better predicted with 75\ \% ensemble BEC. Our results provide insight into current capabilities of the RRFS data assimilation system and identify configurations that should be considered as candidates for the first version of RRFS.{$<$}/p{$>$}}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/XZXW2YF4/Banos et al_2021_Assessment of the data assimilation framework for the Rapid Refresh Forecast.pdf} +} + +@article{bao2015, + title = {Impacts of {{AMSU-A}}, {{MHS}} and {{IASI}} Data Assimilation on Temperature and Humidity Forecasts with {{GSI}}–{{WRF}} over the Western {{United States}}}, + author = {Bao, Y. and Xu, J. and Powell Jr., A. M. and Shao, M. and Min, J. and Pan, Y.}, + date = {2015-10-14}, + journaltitle = {Atmospheric Measurement Techniques}, + shortjournal = {Atmos. Meas. Tech.}, + volume = {8}, + number = {10}, + pages = {4231--4242}, + issn = {1867-8548}, + doi = {10.5194/amt-8-4231-2015}, + url = {https://www.atmos-meas-tech.net/8/4231/2015/}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + abstract = {Abstract. Using NOAA's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system and NCAR's Advanced Research WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) (ARW-WRF) regional model, six experiments are designed by (1) a control experiment (CTRL) and five data assimilation (DA) experiments with different data sets, including (2) conventional data only (CON); (3) microwave data (AMSU-A + MHS) only (MW); (4) infrared data (IASI) only (IR); (5) a combination of microwave and infrared data (MWIR); and (6) a combination of conventional, microwave and infrared observation data (ALL). One-month experiments in July 2012 and the impacts of the DA on temperature and moisture forecasts at the surface and four vertical layers over the western United States have been investigated. The four layers include lower troposphere (LT) from 800 to 1000 hPa, middle troposphere (MT) from 400 to 800 hPa, upper troposphere (UT) from 200 to 400 hPa, and lower stratosphere (LS) from 50 to 200 hPa. The results show that the regional GSI–WRF system is underestimating the observed temperature in the LT and overestimating in the UT and LS. The MW DA reduced the forecast bias from the MT to the LS within 30 h forecasts, and the CON DA kept a smaller forecast bias in the LT for 2-day forecasts. The largest root mean square error (RMSE) is observed in the LT and at the surface (SFC). Compared to the CTRL, the MW DA produced the most positive contribution in the UT and LS, and the CON DA mainly improved the temperature forecasts at the SFC. However, the IR DA gave a negative contribution in the LT. Most of the observed humidity in the different vertical layers is overestimated in the humidity forecasts except in the UT. The smallest bias in the humidity forecast occurred at the SFC and in the UT. The DA experiments apparently reduced the bias from the LT to UT, especially for the IR DA experiment, but the RMSEs are not reduced in the humidity forecasts. Compared to the CTRL, the IR DA experiment has a larger RMSE in the moisture forecast, although the smallest bias is found in the LT and MT.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Bao/bao_2015_impacts_of_amsu-a,_mhs_and_iasi_data_assimilation_on_temperature_and_humidity.pdf} +} + +@article{barton2021, + title = {The {{Navy}}'s {{Earth System Prediction Capability}}: {{A New Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Sea Ice Prediction System Designed}} for {{Daily}} to {{Subseasonal Forecasting}}}, + shorttitle = {The {{Navy}}'s {{Earth System Prediction Capability}}}, + author = {Barton, Neil and Metzger, E. Joseph and Reynolds, Carolyn A. and Ruston, Benjamin and Rowley, Clark and Smedstad, Ole Martin and Ridout, James A. and Wallcraft, Alan and Frolov, Sergey and Hogan, Patrick and Janiga, Matthew A. and Shriver, Jay F. and McLay, Justin and Thoppil, Prasad and Huang, Andrew and Crawford, William and Whitcomb, Timothy and Bishop, Craig H. and Zamudio, Luis and Phelps, Michael}, + date = {2021}, + journaltitle = {Earth and Space Science}, + volume = {8}, + number = {4}, + pages = {e2020EA001199}, + issn = {2333-5084}, + doi = {10.1029/2020EA001199}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020EA001199}, + urldate = {2023-02-20}, + abstract = {This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy-ESPC) coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice prediction system developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting for timescales of days to the subseasonal. Two configurations of the system are validated: (1) a low-resolution 16-member ensemble system and (2) a high-resolution deterministic system. The Navy-ESPC ensemble system became operational in August 2020, and this is the first time the NRL operational partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, will provide global coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice forecasts, with atmospheric forecasts extending past 16 days, and ocean and sea ice ensemble forecasts. A unique aspect of the Navy-ESPC is that the global ocean model is eddy resolving at 1/12° in the ensemble and at 1/25° in the deterministic configurations. The component models are current Navy operational systems: NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) for the atmosphere, HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the ocean, and Community Ice CodE (CICE) for the sea ice. Physics updates to improve the simulation of equatorial phenomena, particularly the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), were introduced into NAVGEM. The low-resolution ensemble configuration and high-resolution deterministic configuration are evaluated based on analyses and forecasts from January 2017 to January 2018. Navy-ESPC ensemble forecast skill for large-scale atmospheric phenomena, such as the MJO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and other indices, is comparable to that of other numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. Ensemble forecasts of ocean sea surface temperatures perform better than climatology in the tropics and midlatitudes out to 60 days. In addition, the Navy-ESPC Pan-Arctic and Pan-Antarctic sea ice extent predictions perform better than climatology out to about 45 days, although the skill is dependent on season.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {coupled modeling,data assimilation,ensembles,MJO,subseasonal forecasting}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/TFX6WFJA/Barton et al. - 2021 - The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability A N.pdf;/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/WJ9FT298/2020EA001199.html} +} + +@inproceedings{baucemachado2017, + title = {Investigating the Impacts of Convective Scale Hazardous Weather Events in {{Santa Catarina State}} through the {{CPTEC}}/{{INPE}} Local Data Assimilation System}, + author = {Bauce Machado, Vivian and family=goncalves, given=luis, prefix=gustavo, useprefix=true and Vendrasco, Eder and Sinhori, Natalia and Herdies, Dirceu and Sapucci, Luiz and Levien, Clóvis and Quadro, Mario and Rodrigues, Tuanny and Cardoso, Camila and Biscaro, Thiago}, + date = {2017-09}, + url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/320306290_Investigating_the_impacts_of_convective_scale_hazardous_weather_events_in_Santa_Catarina_State_through_the_CPTECINPE_local_data_assimilation_system}, + eventtitle = {Seventh {{International WMO Symposium}} on {{Data Assimilation}}} +} + +@article{bauer2010, + title = {Direct {{4D-Var}} Assimilation of All-Sky Radiances. {{Part I}}: {{Implementation}}}, + shorttitle = {Direct {{4D-Var}} Assimilation of All-Sky Radiances. {{Part I}}}, + author = {Bauer, Peter and Geer, Alan J. and Lopez, Philippe and Salmond, Deborah}, + date = {2010}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {136}, + number = {652}, + pages = {1868--1885}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.659}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.659}, + urldate = {2023-02-20}, + abstract = {This article describes a new radiance-assimilation scheme for microwave-imager observations, which unifies the treatment of clear-sky, cloudy and precipitation-affected situations, giving an all-sky approach. This became operational in the four-dimensional variational assimilation (4D-Var) system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in March 2009, replacing a previous approach that assimilated radiances in clear skies and 1D-Var retrievals of total column water vapour in clouds and precipitation. The new approach employs moist-physics parametrizations and a multiple-scattering radiative-transfer model in the observation operator for all microwave-imager observations. Observation-operator accuracy, observation-error definition and bias correction, basic observational impact, 4D-Var linearity and stability as well as computational cost are described. Because of careful quality control and relatively large observation errors, the all-sky system produces a weaker observational constraint on moisture analysis than the previous system. However, in single-observation experiments in precipitating areas, using the same observation errors as in the previous 1D-Var retrieval approach, the all-sky system is able to produce 4D-Var analyses that are slightly closer to the observations than before. Despite the nonlinearity of rain and cloud processes, 4D-Var minimizes successfully through the use of an incremental technique. Overall, the quality of the 4D-Var minimization, in terms of number of iterations and conditioning, is unaffected by the new approach. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cloud,microwave imagers,rain}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/IR6TKB9J/qj.html} +} + +@article{beck2004, + title = {Impact of Nesting Strategies in Dynamical Downscaling of Reanalysis Data}, + author = {Beck, A. and Ahrens, B. and Stadlbacher, K.}, + date = {2004}, + journaltitle = {Geophysical Research Letters}, + volume = {31}, + number = {19}, + issn = {1944-8007}, + doi = {10.1029/2004GL020115}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2004GL020115}, + urldate = {2022-08-22}, + abstract = {Coarse–grid global numerical weather simulations or analysis data have to be downscaled, e.g., with nested limited–area models (LAMs), for regional interpretation. Here, the impact of different one–way nesting strategies on precipitation simulations over the European Alps with the LAM ALADIN is studied. The LAM is forced by initial and lateral boundary data derived from ERA40 reanalyses with 120 km horizontal gridspacing and 6 h update interval. The nesting strategies considered include relaxation–based techniques with direct nesting of the high–resolution LAM (horizontal gridspacing Δx = 12 km; domain size 2800 × 2500 km2) or double nesting with an intermediate–resolution nest (Δx = 50 km). Additionally, the impact of a spectral initialization technique is investigated. Results indicate that the considered nesting strategies are comparably successful in terms of precipitation simulation, despite the large resolution jump (120 to 12 km) involved. Thus, the cheapest method in terms of computational resources, i.e., direct nesting, seems to be the most adequate for dynamical downscaling of reanalysis data over complex terrain.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/8JZT9DYB/Beck et al_2004_Impact of nesting strategies in dynamical downscaling of reanalysis data.pdf} +} + +@article{berri2012, + title = {Verification of a {{Synthesized Method}} for the {{Calculation}} of {{Low-Level Climatological Wind Fields Using}} a {{Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model}}}, + author = {Berri, Guillermo J. and Nuin, Jorgelina S. Galli and Sraibman, Laura and Bertossa, German}, + date = {2012-02}, + journaltitle = {Boundary-Layer Meteorology}, + shortjournal = {Boundary-Layer Meteorol}, + volume = {142}, + number = {2}, + pages = {329--337}, + issn = {0006-8314, 1573-1472}, + doi = {10.1007/s10546-011-9677-2}, + url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10546-011-9677-2}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Berri/berri_2012_verification_of_a_synthesized_method_for_the_calculation_of_low-level.pdf} +} + +@article{boukabara2011, + title = {{{MiRS}}: {{An All-Weather 1DVAR Satellite Data Assimilation}} and {{Retrieval System}}}, + shorttitle = {{{MiRS}}}, + author = {Boukabara, Sid-Ahmed and Garrett, Kevin and Chen, Wanchun and Iturbide-Sanchez, Flavio and Grassotti, Christopher and Kongoli, Cezar and Chen, Ruiyue and Liu, Quanhua and Yan, Banghua and Weng, Fuzhong and Ferraro, Ralph and Kleespies, Thomas J. and Meng, Huan}, + date = {2011-09}, + journaltitle = {IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing}, + volume = {49}, + number = {9}, + pages = {3249--3272}, + issn = {1558-0644}, + doi = {10.1109/TGRS.2011.2158438}, + abstract = {A 1-D variational system has been developed to process spaceborne measurements. It is an iterative physical inversion system that finds a consistent geophysical solution to fit all radiometric measurements simultaneously. One of the particularities of the system is its applicability in cloudy and precipitating conditions. Although valid, in principle, for all sensors for which the radiative transfer model applies, it has only been tested for passive microwave sensors to date. The Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MiRS) inverts the radiative transfer equation by finding radiometrically appropriate profiles of temperature, moisture, liquid cloud, and hydrometeors, as well as the surface emissivity spectrum and skin temperature. The inclusion of the emissivity spectrum in the state vector makes the system applicable globally, with the only differences between land, ocean, sea ice, and snow backgrounds residing in the covariance matrix chosen to spectrally constrain the emissivity. Similarly, the inclusion of the cloud and hydrometeor parameters within the inverted state vector makes the assimilation/inversion of cloudy and rainy radiances possible, and therefore, it provides an all-weather capability to the system. Furthermore, MiRS is highly flexible, and it could be used as a retrieval tool (independent of numerical weather prediction) or as an assimilation system when combined with a forecast field used as a first guess and/or background. In the MiRS, the fundamental products are inverted first and then are interpreted into secondary or derived products such as sea ice concentration, snow water equivalent (based on the retrieved emissivity) rainfall rate, total precipitable water, integrated cloud liquid amount, and ice water path (based on the retrieved atmospheric and hydrometeor products). The MiRS system was implemented operationally at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2007 for the NOAA-18 satellite. Since then, it has been extended to run for NOAA-19, Metop-A, and DMSP-F16 and F18 SSMI/S. This paper gives an overview of the system and presents brief results of the assessment effort for all fundamental and derived products.}, + eventtitle = {{{IEEE Transactions}} on {{Geoscience}} and {{Remote Sensing}}}, + keywords = {Atmospheric sounding,Clouds,cloudy and rainy data assimilation,Covariance matrix,Geophysical measurements,Ice,microwave retrieval,Ocean temperature,Rain,Sea surface,surface sensing}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ET4JELF6/5958598.html} +} + +@article{bousquet2008, + title = {Using Operationally Synthesized Multiple-{{Doppler}} Winds for High Resolution Horizontal Wind Forecast Verification: {{OPERATIONAL DOPPLER RADAR NETWORKS}}}, + shorttitle = {Using Operationally Synthesized Multiple-{{Doppler}} Winds for High Resolution Horizontal Wind Forecast Verification}, + author = {Bousquet, Olivier and Montmerle, Thibaut and Tabary, Pierre}, + date = {2008-05}, + journaltitle = {Geophysical Research Letters}, + shortjournal = {Geophys. Res. Lett.}, + volume = {35}, + number = {10}, + issn = {00948276}, + doi = {10.1029/2008GL033975}, + url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2008GL033975}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Bousquet/bousquet_2008_using_operationally_synthesized_multiple-doppler_winds_for_high_resolution.pdf} +} + +@article{brier1950, + title = {{{VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY}}}, + author = {Brier, Glenn W.}, + date = {1950-01-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {78}, + number = {1}, + pages = {1--3}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/78/1/1520-0493_1950_078_0001_vofeit_2_0_co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2023-04-28}, + abstract = {Abstract No Abstract Available.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/68TEY7TA/Brier_1950_VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY.pdf} +} + +@article{brooks2003, + title = {The Spatial Distribution of Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Environments from Global Reanalysis Data}, + author = {Brooks, Harold E and Lee, James W and Craven, Jeffrey P}, + date = {2003-07}, + journaltitle = {Atmospheric Research}, + shortjournal = {Atmospheric Research}, + volume = {67--68}, + pages = {73--94}, + issn = {01698095}, + doi = {10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00045-0}, + url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0169809503000450}, + urldate = {2021-05-14}, + abstract = {Proximity sounding analysis has long been a tool to determine environmental conditions associated with different kinds of weather events and to discriminate between them. It has been limited, necessarily, by the spatial and temporal distribution of soundings. The recent development of reanalysis datasets that cover the globe with spatial grid spacing on the order of 200 km and temporal spacing every 6 h allows for the possibility of increasing the number of proximity soundings by creating ‘‘pseudo-soundings.’’ We have used the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis system to create soundings and find environmental conditions associated with significant severe thunderstorms (hail at least 5 cm in diameter, wind gusts at least 120 km hÀ 1, or a tornado of at least F2 damage) and to discriminate between significant tornadic and non-tornadic thunderstorm environments in the eastern United States for the period 1997 – 1999. Applying the relationships from that region to Europe and the rest of the globe, we have made estimates of the frequency of favorable conditions for significant severe thunderstorms. Southern Europe has the greatest frequency of significant severe thunderstorm environments, particularly over the Spanish plateau and the region east of the Adriatic Sea. Favorable significant tornadic environments are found in France and east of the Adriatic. Worldwide, favorable significant thunderstorm environments are concentrated in equatorial Africa, the central United States, southern Brazil and northern Argentina, and near the Himalayas. Tornadic environments are by far the most common in the central United States, with lesser areas in southern Brazil and northern Argentina.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/8L96CXR6/Brooks et al. - 2003 - The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm an.pdf} +} + +@article{candille2007, + title = {Verification of an {{Ensemble Prediction System}} against {{Observations}}}, + author = {Candille, G. and Côté, C. and Houtekamer, P. L. and Pellerin, G.}, + date = {2007-07}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {135}, + number = {7}, + pages = {2688--2699}, + issn = {0027-0644, 1520-0493}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR3414.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR3414.1}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + abstract = {A verification system has been developed for the ensemble prediction system (EPS) at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). This provides objective criteria for comparing two EPSs, necessary when deciding whether or not to implement a new or revised EPS. The proposed verification methodology is based on the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), which provides an evaluation of the global skill of an EPS. Its reliability/resolution partition, proposed by Hersbach, is used to measure the two main attributes of a probabilistic system. Also, the characteristics of the reliability are obtained from the two first moments of the reduced centered random variable (RCRV), which define the bias and the dispersion of an EPS. Resampling bootstrap techniques have been applied to these scores. Confidence intervals are thus defined, expressing the uncertainty due to the finiteness of the number of realizations used to compute the scores. All verifications are performed against observations to provide more independent validations and to avoid any local systematic bias of an analysis. A revised EPS, which has been tested at the CMC in a parallel run during the autumn of 2005, is described in this paper. This EPS has been compared with the previously operational one with the verification system presented above. To illustrate the verification methodology, results are shown for the temperature at 850 hPa. The confidence intervals are computed by taking into account the spatial correlation of the data and the temporal autocorrelation of the forecast error. The revised EPS performs significantly better for all the forecast ranges, except for the resolution component of the CRPS where the improvement is no longer significant from day 7. The significant improvement of the reliability is mainly due to a better dispersion of the ensemble. Finally, the verification system correctly indicates that variations are not significant when two theoretically similar EPSs are compared.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Candille/candille_2007_verification_of_an_ensemble_prediction_system_against_observations.pdf} +} + +@article{carrassi2018, + title = {Data Assimilation in the Geosciences: {{An}} Overview of Methods, Issues, and Perspectives}, + shorttitle = {Data Assimilation in the Geosciences}, + author = {Carrassi, Alberto and Bocquet, Marc and Bertino, Laurent and Evensen, Geir}, + date = {2018}, + journaltitle = {WIREs Climate Change}, + volume = {9}, + number = {5}, + pages = {e535}, + issn = {1757-7799}, + doi = {10.1002/wcc.535}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.535}, + urldate = {2023-01-09}, + abstract = {We commonly refer to state estimation theory in geosciences as data assimilation (DA). This term encompasses the entire sequence of operations that, starting from the observations of a system, and from additional statistical and dynamical information (such as a dynamical evolution model), provides an estimate of its state. DA is standard practice in numerical weather prediction, but its application is becoming widespread in many other areas of climate, atmosphere, ocean, and environment modeling; in all circumstances where one intends to estimate the state of a large dynamical system based on limited information. While the complexity of DA, and of the methods thereof, stands on its interdisciplinary nature across statistics, dynamical systems, and numerical optimization, when applied to geosciences, an additional difficulty arises by the continually increasing sophistication of the environmental models. Thus, in spite of DA being nowadays ubiquitous in geosciences, it has so far remained a topic mostly reserved to experts. We aim this overview article at geoscientists with a background in mathematical and physical modeling, who are interested in the rapid development of DA and its growing domains of application in environmental science, but so far have not delved into its conceptual and methodological complexities. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling {$>$} Knowledge Generation with Models}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {Bayesian methods,data assimilation,ensemble methods,environmental prediction}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/IY5ZN49Z/Carrassi et al_2018_Data assimilation in the geosciences.pdf} +} + +@article{casaretto2022, + title = {High-{{Resolution NWP Forecast Precipitation Comparison}} over {{Complex Terrain}} of the {{Sierras}} de {{Córdoba}} during {{RELAMPAGO-CACTI}}}, + author = {Casaretto, Gimena and Dillon, Maria Eugenia and Salio, Paola and Skabar, Yanina García and Nesbitt, Stephen W. and Schumacher, Russ S. and García, Carlos Marcelo and Catalini, Carlos}, + date = {2022-02-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {37}, + number = {2}, + pages = {241--266}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0434, 0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-21-0006.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/37/2/WAF-D-21-0006.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-07-26}, + abstract = {Abstract Sierras de Córdoba (Argentina) is characterized by the occurrence of extreme precipitation events during the austral warm season. Heavy precipitation in the region has a large societal impact, causing flash floods. This motivates the forecast performance evaluation of 24-h accumulated precipitation and vertical profiles of atmospheric variables from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with the final aim of helping water management in the region. The NWP models evaluated include the Global Forecast System (GFS), which parameterizes convection, and convection-permitting simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model configured by three institutions: University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign (UIUC), Colorado State University (CSU), and National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN). These models were verified with daily accumulated precipitation data from rain gauges and soundings during the RELAMPAGO-CACTI field campaign. Generally all configurations of the higher-resolution WRFs outperformed the lower-resolution GFS based on multiple metrics. Among the convection-permitting WRF Models, results varied with respect to rainfall threshold and forecast lead time, but the WRFUIUC mostly performed the best. However, elevation-dependent biases existed among the models that may impact the use of the data for different applications. There is a dry (moist) bias in lower (upper) pressure levels which is most pronounced in the GFS. For Córdoba an overestimation of the northern flow forecasted by the NWP configurations at lower levels was encountered. These results show the importance of convection-permitting forecasts in this region, which should be complementary to the coarser-resolution global model forecasts to help various users and decision-makers.}, + langid = {english} +} + +@article{cecil2012, + title = {Toward a {{Global Climatology}} of {{Severe Hailstorms}} as {{Estimated}} by {{Satellite Passive Microwave Imagers}}}, + author = {Cecil, Daniel J. and Blankenship, Clay B.}, + date = {2012-01-15}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Climate}, + volume = {25}, + number = {2}, + pages = {687--703}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0894-8755, 1520-0442}, + doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00130.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/25/2/jcli-d-11-00130.1.xml}, + urldate = {2021-05-14}, + abstract = {{$<$}section class="abstract"{$><$}h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d69634688e65"{$>$}Abstract{$<$}/h2{$><$}p{$>$}An 8-yr climatology of storms producing large hail is estimated from satellite measurements using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). This allows a unique, consistent comparison between regions that cannot be consistently compared using ground-based records because of varying data collection standards. Severe hailstorms are indicated most often in a broad region of northern Argentina and southern Paraguay and a smaller region in Bangladesh and eastern India. Numerous hailstorms are also estimated in the central and southeastern United States, northern Pakistan and northwestern India, central and western Africa, and southeastern Africa (and adjacent waters). Fewer hailstorms are estimated for other regions over land and scattered across subtropical oceans. Very few are estimated in the deep tropics other than in Africa. Most continental regions show seasonality with hailstorms peaking in late spring or summer. The South Asian monsoon alters the hailstorm climatology around the Indian subcontinent. About 75\% of the hailstorms on the eastern side (around Bangladesh) occur from April through June, generally before monsoon onset. Activity shifts northwest to northern India in late June and July. An arc along the foothills in northern Pakistan becomes particularly active from mid-June through mid-August. The AMSR-E measurements are limited to early afternoon and late night. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) measurements are used to investigate diurnal variability in the tropics and subtropics. All of the prominent regions have hailstorm peaks in late afternoon and early evening. The United States and central Africa have the fewest overnight and early morning storms, while subtropical South America and Bangladesh have the most.{$<$}/p{$><$}/section{$>$}}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ZY9RZMN3/Cecil_Blankenship_2012_Toward a Global Climatology of Severe Hailstorms as Estimated by Satellite.pdf} +} + +@article{chang2017, + title = {Assimilation of {{Hourly Surface Observations}} with the {{Canadian High-Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter}}}, + author = {Chang, Weiguang and Jacques, Dominik and Fillion, Luc and Baek, Seung-Jong}, + date = {2017-10-20}, + journaltitle = {Atmosphere-Ocean}, + volume = {55}, + number = {4-5}, + pages = {247--263}, + publisher = {{Taylor \& Francis}}, + issn = {0705-5900}, + doi = {10.1080/07055900.2017.1384361}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2017.1384361}, + urldate = {2020-09-14}, + abstract = {An hourly-cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) working at 2.5 km horizontal grid spacing is implemented over southern Ontario (Canada) to assimilate Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METARs) in addition to the observations assimilated operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. This high-resolution EnKF (HREnKF) system employs ensemble land analyses and perturbed roughness length to prevent an ensemble spread that is too small near the surface. The HREnKF then performs continuously for a four-day period, from which twelve-hour ensemble forecasts are launched every six hours. The impact on analyses and short-term forecasts of assimilating METAR data is given special attention.It is shown that using ensemble land surface analyses increases near-surface ensemble spreads for temperature and specific humidity. Perturbing roughness length enlarges the spread for surface wind. Given sufficient ensemble spread, the four-day case study shows that the near-surface model state is brought closer to surface observations during the cycling process. The impact of assimilating surface data can also be seen at higher levels by using aircraft reports for verification. The ensemble forecast verification suggests that METAR data assimilation improves ensemble forecasts of air temperature and dewpoint near the surface up to a lead time of six hours or even longer. However, only minor improvement is found in surface wind forecasts.}, + keywords = {data assimilation,ensemble Kalman Filter,high resolution,METAR data}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Chang/chang_2017_assimilation_of_hourly_surface_observations_with_the_canadian_high-resolution.pdf} +} + +@article{chen2001, + title = {Coupling an {{Advanced Land Surface}}–{{Hydrology Model}} with the {{Penn State}}–{{NCAR MM5 Modeling System}}. {{Part I}}: {{Model Implementation}} and {{Sensitivity}}}, + shorttitle = {Coupling an {{Advanced Land Surface}}–{{Hydrology Model}} with the {{Penn State}}–{{NCAR MM5 Modeling System}}. {{Part I}}}, + author = {Chen, Fei and Dudhia, Jimy}, + date = {2001-04-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {129}, + number = {4}, + pages = {569--585}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<0569:CAALSH>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/129/4/1520-0493_2001_129_0569_caalsh_2.0.co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2021-06-24}, + abstract = {{$<$}section class="abstract"{$><$}h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d61241058e68"{$>$}Abstract{$<$}/h2{$><$}p{$>$}This paper addresses and documents a number of issues related to the implementation of an advanced land surface–hydrology model in the Penn State–NCAR fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The concept adopted here is that the land surface model should be able to provide not only reasonable diurnal variations of surface heat fluxes as surface boundary conditions for coupled models, but also correct seasonal evolutions of soil moisture in the context of a long-term data assimilation system. In a similar way to that in which the modified Oregon State University land surface model (LSM) has been used in the NCEP global and regional forecast models, it is implemented in MM5 to facilitate the initialization of soil moisture. Also, 1-km resolution vegetation and soil texture maps are introduced in the coupled MM5–LSM system to help identify vegetation/water/soil characteristics at fine scales and capture the feedback of these land surface forcings. A monthly varying climatological 0.15° × 0.15° green vegetation fraction is utilized to represent the annual control of vegetation on the surface evaporation. Specification of various vegetation and soil parameters is discussed, and the available water capacity in the LSM is extended to account for subgrid-scale heterogeneity. The coupling of the LSM to MM5 is also sensitive to the treatment of the surface layer, especially the calculation of the roughness length for heat/moisture. Including the effect of the molecular sublayer can improve the simulation of surface heat flux. It is shown that the soil thermal and hydraulic conductivities and the surface energy balance are very sensitive to soil moisture changes. Hence, it is necessary to establish an appropriate soil moisture data assimilation system to improve the soil moisture initialization at fine scales.{$<$}/p{$><$}/section{$>$}}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/XZG8Y2AL/Chen_Dudhia_2001_Coupling an Advanced Land Surface–Hydrology Model with the Penn State–NCAR MM5.pdf} +} + +@article{chen2015, + title = {Roles of Wind Shear at Different Vertical Levels: {{Cloud}} System Organization and Properties}, + shorttitle = {Roles of Wind Shear at Different Vertical Levels}, + author = {Chen, Qian and Fan, Jiwen and Hagos, Samson and Gustafson, William I. and Berg, Larry K.}, + date = {2015}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, + volume = {120}, + number = {13}, + pages = {6551--6574}, + issn = {2169-8996}, + doi = {10.1002/2015JD023253}, + url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2015JD023253}, + urldate = {2021-02-01}, + abstract = {Understanding critical processes that contribute to the organization of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is important for accurate weather forecasts and climate predictions. In this study, we investigate the effects of wind shear at different vertical levels on the organization and properties of convective systems using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with spectral bin microphysics. Based on a control run for a MCS with weak wind shear (Ctrl), we find that increasing wind shear at the lower troposphere (L-shear) leads to a more organized quasi-line convective system. Strong wind shear in the middle troposphere (M-shear) tends to produce large vorticity and form a mesocyclone circulation and an isolated strong storm that leans toward supercellular structure. By increasing wind shear at the upper vertical levels only (U-shear), the organization of the convection is not changed much, but the convective intensity is weakened. Increasing wind shear in the middle troposphere for the selected case results in a significant drying, and the drying is more significant when conserving moisture advection at the lateral boundaries, contributing to the suppressed convective strength and precipitation relative to Ctrl. Precipitation in the L-shear and U-shear does not change much from Ctrl. Evident changes of cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties in the strong wind shear cases are mainly due to large changes in convective organization and water vapor. The insights obtained from this study help us better understand the major factors contributing to convective organization and precipitation.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cloud properties,convection organization,deep convection,wind shear}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Chen/chen_2015_roles_of_wind_shear_at_different_vertical_levels_-_cloud_system_organization_and.pdf} +} + +@article{chen2016, + title = {Assimilating Surface Observations in a Four-Dimensional Variational {{Doppler}} Radar Data Assimilation System to Improve the Analysis and Forecast of a Squall Line Case}, + author = {Chen, Xingchao and Zhao, Kun and Sun, Juanzhen and Zhou, Bowen and Lee, Wen-Chau}, + date = {2016-10}, + journaltitle = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences}, + shortjournal = {Adv. Atmos. Sci.}, + volume = {33}, + number = {10}, + pages = {1106--1119}, + issn = {0256-1530, 1861-9533}, + doi = {10.1007/s00376-016-5290-0}, + url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-016-5290-0}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {This paper examines how assimilating surface observations can improve the analysis and forecast ability of a fourdimensional Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS). Observed surface temperature and winds are assimilated together with radar radial velocity and reflectivity into a convection-permitting model using the VDRAS four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system. A squall-line case observed during a field campaign is selected to investigate the performance of the technique. A single observation experiment shows that assimilating surface observations can influence the analyzed fields in both the horizontal and vertical directions. The surface-based cold pool, divergence and gust front of the squall line are all strengthened through the assimilation of the single surface observation. Three experiments—assimilating radar data only, assimilating radar data with surface data blended in a mesoscale background, and assimilating both radar and surface observations with a 4DVAR cost function—are conducted to examine the impact of the surface data assimilation. Independent surface and wind profiler observations are used for verification. The result shows that the analysis and forecast are improved when surface observations are assimilated in addition to radar observations. It is also shown that the additional surface data can help improve the analysis and forecast at low levels. Surface and low-level features of the squall line—including the surface warm inflow, cold pool, gust front, and low-level wind—are much closer to the observations after assimilating the surface data in VDRAS.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ERUZRSDS/Chen et al. - 2016 - Assimilating surface observations in a four-dimens.pdf} +} + +@article{cherubini2006, + title = {The {{Impact}} of {{Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors}} on {{Mesoscale Forecasts}} over {{Hawaii}}}, + author = {Cherubini, T. and Businger, S. and Velden, C. and Ogasawara, R.}, + date = {2006-07-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {134}, + number = {7}, + pages = {2009--2020}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR3163.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/134/7/mwr3163.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract Tropospheric motions can be inferred from geostationary satellites by tracking clouds and water vapor in sequential imagery. These atmospheric motion vectors (AMV) have been operationally assimilated into global models for the past three decades, with positive forecast impacts. This paper presents results from a study to assess the impact of AMV derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery on mesoscale forecasts over the conventional data-poor central North Pacific region. These AMV are derived using the latest automated processing methodologies by the University of Wisconsin—Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). For a test case, a poorly forecast subtropical cyclone (kona low) that occurred over Hawaii on 23–27 February 1997 was chosen. The Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) was used to assimilate GOES-9 AMV data and to produce fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) initial conditions. The satellite wind assimilation is carried out on the 27-km-resolution domain covering the central Pacific area. The MM5 was run with three two-way nested domains (27, 9, and 3 km), with the innermost domain moving with the kona low. The AMV data are found to influence the cyclone’s development, improving the prediction of the cyclone’s central pressure and the track of the low’s center. Since September 2003, GOES-10 AMV data have been routinely accessed from CIMSS in real time and assimilated into the University of Hawaii (UH) LAPS, providing high-resolution initial conditions for twice-daily runs of MM5 at the Mauna Kea Weather Center collocated at the UH. It is found that the direct assimilation of AMV data into LAPS has a positive impact on the forecast accuracy of the UH LAPS/MM5 operational forecasting system when validated with observations in Hawaii. The implications of the results are discussed.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/7PDIW5NC/Cherubini et al_2006_The Impact of Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Mesoscale.pdf} +} + +@article{Cheyenne2019, + title = {Cheyenne: {{HPE}}/{{SGI ICE XA System}} ({{University Community Computing}})}, + author = {{Computational and Information Systems Laboratory}}, + date = {2019}, + journaltitle = {National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO}, + doi = {doi:10.5065/D6RX99HX} +} + +@article{cisl_rda_ds084.1, + title = {{{NCEP GFS}} 0.25 Degree Global Forecast Grids Historical Archive}, + author = {{National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce}}, + date = {2015}, + publisher = {{Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory}}, + address = {Boulder CO}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.5065/D65D8PWK} +} + +@misc{cisl_rda_ds337.0, + title = {{{NCEP ADP}} Global Upper Air and Surface Weather Observations ({{PREPBUFR}} Format)}, + author = {{National Centers for Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, NOAA, U.S. Department of Commerce}}, + date = {2008}, + location = {{Boulder CO}}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.5065/Z83F-N512}, + organization = {{Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Computational and Information Systems Laboratory}} +} + +@article{clark2009, + title = {A {{Comparison}} of {{Precipitation Forecast Skill}} between {{Small Convection-Allowing}} and {{Large Convection-Parameterizing Ensembles}}}, + author = {Clark, Adam J. and Gallus, William A. and Xue, Ming and Kong, Fanyou}, + date = {2009-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {24}, + number = {4}, + pages = {1121--1140}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0434, 0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/2009WAF2222222.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/24/4/2009waf2222222_1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract An experiment has been designed to evaluate and compare precipitation forecasts from a 5-member, 4-km grid-spacing (ENS4) and a 15-member, 20-km grid-spacing (ENS20) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ensemble, which cover a similar domain over the central United States. The ensemble forecasts are initialized at 2100 UTC on 23 different dates and cover forecast lead times up to 33 h. Previous work has demonstrated that simulations using convection-allowing resolution (CAR; dx ∼ 4 km) have a better representation of the spatial and temporal statistical properties of convective precipitation than coarser models using convective parameterizations. In addition, higher resolution should lead to greater ensemble spread as smaller scales of motion are resolved. Thus, CAR ensembles should provide more accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts than parameterized-convection resolution (PCR) ensembles. Computation of various precipitation skill metrics for probabilistic and deterministic forecasts reveals that ENS4 generally provides more accurate precipitation forecasts than ENS20, with the differences tending to be statistically significant for precipitation thresholds above 0.25 in. at forecast lead times of 9–21 h (0600–1800 UTC) for all accumulation intervals analyzed (1, 3, and 6 h). In addition, an analysis of rank histograms and statistical consistency reveals that faster error growth in ENS4 eventually leads to more reliable precipitation forecasts in ENS4 than in ENS20. For the cases examined, these results imply that the skill gained by increasing to CAR outweighs the skill lost by decreasing the ensemble size. Thus, when computational capabilities become available, it will be highly desirable to increase the ensemble resolution from PCR to CAR, even if the size of the ensemble has to be reduced.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/SE5T7WWF/Clark et al_2009_A Comparison of Precipitation Forecast Skill between Small Convection-Allowing.pdf} +} + +@article{clark2017, + title = {Generation of {{Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts}} from {{Convection-Allowing Ensembles}}}, + author = {Clark, Adam J.}, + date = {2017-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {32}, + number = {4}, + pages = {1569--1583}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0434, 0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-16-0199.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/32/4/waf-d-16-0199_1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-03-10}, + abstract = {Abstract Methods for generating ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles based on a simple average of all members at each grid point can have limited utility because of amplitude reduction and overprediction of light precipitation areas caused by averaging complex spatial fields with strong gradients and high-amplitude features. To combat these issues with the simple ensemble mean, a method known as probability matching is commonly used to replace the ensemble mean amounts with amounts sampled from the distribution of ensemble member forecasts, which results in a field that has a bias approximately equal to the average bias of the ensemble members. Thus, the probability matched mean (PM mean hereafter) is viewed as a better representation of the ensemble members compared to the mean, and previous studies find that it is more skillful than any of the individual members. Herein, using nearly a year’s worth of data from a CAM-based ensemble running in real time at the National Severe Storms Laboratory, evidence is provided that the superior performance of the PM mean is at least partially an artifact of the spatial redistribution of precipitation amounts that occur when the PM mean is computed over a large domain. Specifically, the PM mean enlarges big areas of heavy precipitation and shrinks or even eliminates smaller ones. An alternative approach for the PM mean is developed that restricts the grid points used to those within a specified radius of influence. The new approach has an improved spatial representation of precipitation and is found to perform more skillfully than the PM mean at large scales when using neighborhood-based verification metrics.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/WJ8MLRQ4/Clark_2017_Generation of Ensemble Mean Precipitation Forecasts from Convection-Allowing.pdf} +} + +@article{collard2007, + title = {Selection of {{IASI}} Channels for Use in Numerical Weather Prediction: {{SELECTION OF IASI CHANNELS FOR NWP}}}, + shorttitle = {Selection of {{IASI}} Channels for Use in Numerical Weather Prediction}, + author = {Collard, A. D.}, + date = {2007-10}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + shortjournal = {Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.}, + volume = {133}, + number = {629}, + pages = {1977--1991}, + issn = {00359009}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.178}, + url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.178}, + urldate = {2021-06-24}, + abstract = {IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) is an infrared Fourier transform spectrometer flying on the MetOp satellite series starting in October 2006. It measures the radiance emitted from the Earth in 8461 channels covering the spectral interval from 645–2760cm 1 at a resolution of 0.5cm 1 (apodised). The high volume of data resulting from IASI presents many challenges, particularly in the areas of data transmission, data storage and assimilation.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/GHBXII5Z/Collard - 2007 - Selection of IASI channels for use in numerical we.pdf} +} + +@article{crews2021, + title = {Initial {{Radiance Validation}} of the {{Microsized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite-2A}}}, + author = {Crews, Angela and Blackwell, William J. and Leslie, R. Vincent and Grant, Michael and Osaretin, Idahosa A. and DiLiberto, Michael and Milstein, Adam and Leroy, Stephen and Gagnon, Amelia and Cahoy, Kerri}, + date = {2021-04}, + journaltitle = {IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing}, + volume = {59}, + number = {4}, + pages = {2703--2714}, + issn = {1558-0644}, + doi = {10.1109/TGRS.2020.3011200}, + abstract = {The Microsized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite (MicroMAS-2A) is a 3U CubeSat that was launched in January 2018 as a technology demonstration for future microwave sounding constellation missions, such as the NASA Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission now in development. MicroMAS-2A has a miniaturized 1U ten-channel passive microwave radiometer with channels near 90, 118, 183, and 206 GHz for moisture and temperature profiling and precipitation imaging [4]. MicroMAS-2A provided the first CubeSat atmospheric vertical sounding data from orbit, and to date it is the only CubeSat to provide temperature and moisture sounding and surface imaging. In this article, we analyze six segments of data collected from MicroMAS-2A in April 2018 and compare them to ERA5 reanalysis fields coupled with the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). This initial assessment of CubeSat radiometric accuracy shows biases relative to ERA5 with magnitudes ranging from 0.4 to 2.2 K (with standard deviations ranging from 0.7 to 1.2 K) for the four mid-tropospheric temperature channels and biases of 2.2 and 2.8 K (standard deviations 1.8 and 2.6 K) for the two lower tropospheric water vapor channels.}, + eventtitle = {{{IEEE Transactions}} on {{Geoscience}} and {{Remote Sensing}}}, + keywords = {Atmospheric modeling,Calibration,CubeSats,Microsized Microwave Atmospheric Satellite (MicroMAS-2A),Microwave imaging,microwave radiometers,Microwave radiometry,radiance validation,Satellite broadcasting,Space vehicles}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/XH5VU9YK/Crews et al. - 2021 - Initial Radiance Validation of the Microsized Micr.pdf;/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/VF8LWDX3/9164988.html} +} + +@article{cutraro2021, + title = {Evaluation of Synthetic Satellite Images Computed from Radiative Transfer Models over a Region of {{South America}} Using {{WRF}} and {{GOES-13}}/16 Observations}, + author = {Cutraro, Federico and Galligani, Victoria Sol and Skabar, Yanina García}, + date = {2021}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {147}, + number = {738}, + pages = {2988--3003}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.4111}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.4111}, + urldate = {2021-09-14}, + abstract = {Synthetic infrared GOES-13 observations are generated from a high-resolution (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run over Argentina for a meteorological event of deep moist convection using two different radiative transfer models. The fast operational Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and the physics-based research model Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) are compared with the available observations. CRTM shows good results at a low computational cost, and is a good candidate for operational use in the region. CRTM and ARTS synthetic satellite images show differences due to the treatment of the bulk scattering properties of the frozen hydrometeor species, especially around the cloud shield. With this WRF+CRTM configuration, a long-term evaluation is conducted over 12 hr forecasts from one month of data in a region of the South American autumn with four different initializations at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC, as operational at the National Meteorological Service of Argentina. The simulated and observed GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) brightness temperatures (BTs) in the 6.9 μm channel show good agreement with an averaged bias of −0.1 K (RMSE 21.7 K), whereas the performances in the IR window channels show slightly larger averaged BT differences of 3.5 K (RMSE 15.2 K). BT differences between the 6.9 and 10.3 μm channels indicate that the WRF+CRTM simulations underestimate low to mid-level clouds and to a lesser extent high-level clouds. In the BT (10.3 μm) range between approximately 215 and 230 K, there is an overestimation of clouds with BT differences above 0 K between 6.9 and 10.3 μm. This could be due to the misrepresentation of upper-level clouds.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {ARTS,CRTM,IR synthetic satellite images,radiative transfer model,South America,WRF} +} + +@online{deelia2017, + title = {El SMN y la red argentina de radares meteorológicos}, + author = {family=Elía, given=Ramón, prefix=de, useprefix=true and Vidal, Luciano and Lohigorry, Pedro}, + date = {2017}, + url = {http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12160/625}, + abstract = {This Note describes the weather radar network of Argentina, highlighting in particular its genesis, its history and its technical as well as institutional characteristics today. In addition, the expectation regarding its further development in the next few years is also discussed.}, + langid = {spanish}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/85LLXYUX/de Elía et al. - El SMN y la red argentina de radares meteorológico.pdf} +} + +@article{demoraes2020, + title = {A Multiscale Method for Data Assimilation}, + author = {family=Moraes, given=Rafael J., prefix=de, useprefix=true and Hajibeygi, Hadi and Jansen, Jan Dirk}, + date = {2020-04-01}, + journaltitle = {Computational Geosciences}, + shortjournal = {Comput Geosci}, + volume = {24}, + number = {2}, + pages = {425--442}, + issn = {1573-1499}, + doi = {10.1007/s10596-019-09839-2}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10596-019-09839-2}, + urldate = {2023-05-25}, + abstract = {In data assimilation problems, various types of data are naturally linked to different spatial resolutions (e.g., seismic and electromagnetic data), and these scales are usually not coincident to the subsurface simulation model scale. Alternatives like upscaling/downscaling of the data and/or the simulation model can be used, but with potential loss of important information. Such alternatives introduce additional uncertainties which are not in the nature of the problem description, but the result of the post processing of the data or the geo-model. To address this issue, a novel multiscale (MS) data assimilation method is introduced. The overall idea of the method is to keep uncertain parameters and observed data at their original representation scale, avoiding upscaling/downscaling of any quantity. The method relies on a recently developed mathematical framework to compute adjoint gradients via a MS strategy in an algebraic framework. The fine-scale uncertain parameters are directly updated and the MS grid is constructed in a resolution that meets the observed data resolution. This formulation therefore enables a consistent assimilation of data represented at a coarser scale than the simulation model. The misfit objective function is constructed to keep the MS nature of the problem. The regularization term is represented at the simulation model (fine) scale, whereas the data misfit term is represented at the observed data (coarse) scale. The computational aspects of the method are investigated in a simple synthetic model, including an elaborate uncertainty quantification step, and compared to upscaling/downscaling strategies. The experiment shows that the MS strategy provides several potential advantages compared to more traditional scale conciliation strategies: (1) expensive operations are only performed at the coarse scale; (2) the matched uncertain parameter distribution is closer to the “truth”; (3) faster convergence behavior occurs due to faster gradient computation; and (4) better uncertainty quantification results are obtained. The proof-of-concept example considered in this paper sheds new lights on how one can reduce uncertainty within fine-scale geo-model parameters with coarse-scale data, without the necessity of upscaling/downscaling the data nor the geo-model. The developments demonstrate how to consistently formulate such a gradient-based MS data assimilation strategy in an algebraic framework which allows for implementation in available computational platforms.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {Adjoint method,Data assimilation,Gradient-based optimization,Multiscale inversion,Spatial observations,Uncertainty quantification}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/736YP9X3/de Moraes et al_2020_A multiscale method for data assimilation.pdf} +} + +@article{desroziers2005, + title = {Diagnosis of Observation, Background and Analysis-Error Statistics in Observation Space}, + author = {Desroziers, G. and Berre, L. and Chapnik, B. and Poli, P.}, + date = {2005-10-01}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + shortjournal = {Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.}, + volume = {131}, + number = {613}, + pages = {3385--3396}, + issn = {00359009, 1477870X}, + doi = {10.1256/qj.05.108}, + url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1256/qj.05.108}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {Most operational assimilation schemes rely on linear estimation theory. Under this assumption, it is shown how simple consistency diagnostics can be obtained for the covariances of observation, background and estimation errors in observation space. Those diagnostics are shown to be nearly cost-free since they only combine quantities available after the analysis, i.e. observed values and their background and analysis counterparts in observation space. A first application of such diagnostics is presented on analyses provided by the French 4D-Var assimilation. A procedure to refine background and observation-error variances is also proposed and tested in a simple toy analysis problem. The possibility to diagnose cross-correlations between observation errors is also investigated in this same simple framework. A spectral interpretation of the diagnosed covariances is finally presented, which allows us to highlight the role of the scale separation between background and observation errors.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/R4TA4TN2/Desroziers et al. - 2005 - Diagnosis of observation, background and analysis-.pdf} +} + +@article{dillon2016, + title = {Application of the {{WRF-LETKF Data Assimilation System}} over {{Southern South America}}: {{Sensitivity}} to {{Model Physics}}}, + shorttitle = {Application of the {{WRF-LETKF Data Assimilation System}} over {{Southern South America}}}, + author = {Dillon, María E. and Skabar, Yanina García and Ruiz, Juan and Kalnay, Eugenia and Collini, Estela A. and Echevarría, Pablo and Saucedo, Marcos and Miyoshi, Takemasa and Kunii, Masaru}, + date = {2016-02}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + shortjournal = {Wea. Forecasting}, + volume = {31}, + number = {1}, + pages = {217--236}, + issn = {0882-8156, 1520-0434}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-14-00157.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/WAF-D-14-00157.1}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {Improving the initial conditions of short-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is one of the main goals of the meteorological community. Development of data assimilation and ensemble forecast systems is essential in any national weather service (NWS). In this sense, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) is a methodology that can satisfy both requirements in an efficient manner. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with the LETKF, developed at the University of Maryland, College Park, have been implemented experimentally at the NWS of Argentina [Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN)], but at a somewhat lower resolution (40 km) than the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) at that time (27 km). The purpose of this work is not to show that the system presented herein is better than the higher-resolution GFS, but that its performance is reasonably comparable, and to provide the basis for a continued improved development of an independent regional data assimilation and forecasting system. The WRF-LETKF system is tested during the spring of 2012, using the prepared or quality controlled data in Binary Universal Form for Representation of Meteorological Data (PREPBUFR) observations from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and lateral boundary conditions from the GFS. To assess the effect of model error, a single-model LETKF system (LETKF-single) is compared with a multischeme implementation (LETKF-multi), which uses different boundary layer and cumulus convection schemes for the generation of the ensemble of forecasts. The performance of both experiments during the test period shows that the LETKF-multi usually outperforms the LETKF-single, evidencing the advantages of the use of the multischeme approach. Both data assimilation systems are slightly worse than the GFS in terms of the synoptic environment representation, as could be expected given their lower resolution. Results from a case study of a strong convective system suggest that the LETKF-multi improves the location of the most intense area of precipitation with respect to the LETKF-single, although both systems show an underestimation of the total accumulated precipitation. These preliminary results encourage continuing the development of an operational data assimilation system based on WRF-LETKF at the SMN.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/BK6S5VMD/Dillon et al. - 2016 - Application of the WRF-LETKF Data Assimilation Sys.pdf} +} + +@thesis{dillon2017, + title = {Asimilación de datos reales a escala regional en Argentina.}, + author = {Dillon, Lic María Eugenia}, + date = {2017}, + abstract = {One of the big challenges in numerical weather prediction is to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of the atmospheric state. This issue is addressed by different data assimilation methods, which are used operationally at the most important prediction centers of the world. In this thesis, the development of a regional data assimilation system in Argentina is proposed, using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The selection of this method is motivated not only by the favorable results obtained by many authors, but also by its computational efficiency and, very importantly, by the possibility of generating probabilistic forecasts from an ensemble of analyses.}, + langid = {spanish}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/Y7MBRX5F/Dillon - Asimilación de datos reales a escala regional en A.pdf} +} + +@article{dillon2019, + title = {Sensibilidad de un sistema de asimilación de datos por ensambles a diferentes configuraciones, implementado en el sur de Sudamérica}, + author = {Dillon, María E. and García Skabar, Yanina and Kalnay, Eugenia and Ruiz, Juan J. and Collini, Estela A.}, + date = {2019}, + journaltitle = {Meteorológica}, + volume = {44}, + number = {2}, + pages = {15--34}, + url = {http://www.meteorologica.org.ar/nota/sensibilidad-de-un-sistema-de-asimilacion-de-datos-por-ensambles-a-diferentes-configuraciones-implementado-en-el-sur-de-sudamerica/}, + urldate = {2020-06-23}, + abstract = {Uno de los mayores desafíos en la predicción numérica del tiempo es el de reducir la incertidumbre de las condiciones iniciales. Con el fin de abordar esta problemática, variados esfuerzos se están llevando a cabo en el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional de Argentina (SMN). En este artículo se presenta la evaluación del sistema regional de asimilación por ensambles WRF-LETKF (Weather Research and Forecasting model – Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter). El dominio cubre el Sur de Sudamérica con una resolución horizontal de 40 km, y el período de prueba utilizado es de dos meses (noviembre y diciembre de 2012). El sistema de asimilación consta de un ensamble de 40 miembros e incorpora observaciones tanto convencionales como provenientes de satélites. En este trabajo, se evaluó el impacto de utilizar un ensamble multi física incluyendo en sus miembros distintas opciones de parametrizaciones de cumulus y capa límite planetaria. Se halló que dicha estrategia generalmente produce resultados mejores comparada con un sistema de ensamble en el cual todos los miembros poseen las mismas parametrizaciones. También se exploró la inclusión de bordes perturbados, pero no se encontró un impacto significativo con la metodología propuesta. Otro experimento consistió en la inclusión de los perfiles verticales de temperatura y humedad de los AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounders) en la asimilación, cuya evaluación demostró un impacto positivo en los resultados. Finalmente, se comparó la media de los pronósticos por ensamble inicializados con los análisis de las diferentes variantes del sistema WRF-LETKF con un pronóstico determinístico del WRF inicializado con los análisis provistos por el GFS (Global Forecast System). Si bien generalmente dicha comparación mostró un impacto positivo de la asimilación de datos a escala regional, también mostró la necesidad de que el sistema regional mantenga la información de mayor escala provista por el modelo global.}, + langid = {spanish} +} + +@article{dillon2021, + title = {A Rapid Refresh Ensemble Based Data Assimilation and Forecast System for the {{RELAMPAGO}} Field Campaign}, + author = {Dillon, María Eugenia and Maldonado, Paula and Corrales, Paola and Skabar, Yanina García and Ruiz, Juan and Sacco, Maximiliano and Cutraro, Federico and Mingari, Leonardo and Matsudo, Cynthia and Vidal, Luciano and Rugna, Martin and Hobouchian, María Paula and Salio, Paola and Nesbitt, Stephen and Saulo, Celeste and Kalnay, Eugenia and Miyoshi, Takemasa}, + date = {2021-09-25}, + journaltitle = {Atmospheric Research}, + shortjournal = {Atmospheric Research}, + pages = {105858}, + issn = {0169-8095}, + doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105858}, + url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809521004142}, + urldate = {2021-09-28}, + abstract = {This paper describes the lessons learned from the implementation of a regional ensemble data assimilation and forecast system during the intensive observing period of the Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign (central Argentina, November–December 2018). This system is based on the coupling of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). It combines multiple data sources both global and locally available like high-resolution surface networks, AMDAR data from local aircraft flights, soundings, AIRS retrievals, high-resolution GOES-16 wind estimates, and local radar data. Hourly analyses with grid spacing of 10\,km are generated along with warm-start 36-h ensemble-forecasts, which are initialized from the rapid refresh analyses every three hours. A preliminary evaluation shows that a forecast error reduction is achieved due to the assimilated observations. However, cold-start forecasts initialized from the Global Forecasting System Analysis slightly outperform the ones initialized from the regional assimilation system discussed in this paper. The system uses a multi-physics approach, focused on the use of different cumulus and planetary boundary layer schemes allowing us to conduct an evaluation of different model configurations over central Argentina. We found that the best combinations for forecasting surface variables differ from the best ones for forecasting precipitation, and that differences among the schemes tend to dominate the forecast ensemble spread for variables like precipitation. Lessons learned from this experimental system are part of the legacy of the RELAMPAGO field campaign for the development of advanced operational data assimilation systems in South America.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {Regional data assimilation,Regional ensemble forecasts,RELAMPAGO} +} + +@article{ebert2001, + title = {Ability of a {{Poor Man}}'s {{Ensemble}} to {{Predict}} the {{Probability}} and {{Distribution}} of {{Precipitation}}}, + author = {Ebert, Elizabeth E.}, + date = {2001-10-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {129}, + number = {10}, + pages = {2461--2480}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2461:AOAPMS>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/129/10/1520-0493_2001_129_2461_aoapms_2.0.co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2022-03-10}, + abstract = {Abstract A poor man's ensemble is a set of independent numerical weather prediction (NWP) model forecasts from several operational centers. Because it samples uncertainties in both the initial conditions and model formulation through the variation of input data, analysis, and forecast methodologies of its component members, it is less prone to systematic biases and errors that cause underdispersive behavior in single-model ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). It is also essentially cost-free. Its main disadvantage is its relatively small size. This paper investigates the ability of a poor man's ensemble to provide forecasts of the probability and distribution of rainfall in the short range, 1–2 days. The poor man's ensemble described here consists of 24- and 48-h daily quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from seven operational NWP models. The ensemble forecasts were verified for a 28-month period over Australia using gridded daily rain gauge analyses. Forecasts of the probability of precipitation (POP) were skillful for rain rates up to 50 mm day−1 for the first 24-h period, exceeding the skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts EPS. Probabilistic skill was limited to lower rain rates during the second 24 h. The skill and accuracy of the ensemble mean QPF far exceeded that of the individual models for both forecast periods when standard measures such as the root-mean-square error and equitable threat score were used. Additional measures based on the forecast location and intensity of individual rain events substantiated the improvements associated with the ensemble mean QPF. The greatest improvement was seen in the location of the forecast rain pattern, as the mean displacement from the observations was reduced by 30\%. As a result the number of event forecasts that could be considered “hits” (forecast rain location and maximum intensity close to the observed) improved markedly. Averaging to produce the ensemble mean caused a large bias in rain area and a corresponding reduction in mean and maximum rain intensity. Several alternative deterministic ensemble forecasts were tested, with the most successful using probability matching to reassign the ensemble mean rain rates using the rain rate distribution of the component QPFs. This eliminated most of the excess rain area and increased the maximum rain rates, improving the event hit rate. The dependence of the POP and ensemble mean results on the number of members included in the ensemble was investigated using the 24-h model QPFs. When ensemble members were selected randomly the performance improved monotonically with increasing ensemble size, with verification statistics approaching their asymptotic limits for an ensemble size of seven. When the members were chosen according to greatest overall skill the ensemble performance peaked when only five or six members were used. This suggests that the addition of ensemble members with lower skill can degrade the overall product. Low values of the spread–skill correlation indicate that it is not possible to predict the forecast skill from the spread of the ensemble alone. However, the number of models predicting a particular rain event gives a good indication of the likelihood of the ensemble to envelop the location and magnitude of that event.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/VKDG7HYY/Ebert_2001_Ability of a Poor Man's Ensemble to Predict the Probability and Distribution of.pdf} +} + +@article{english2000, + title = {A Comparison of the Impact of {{TOVS}} Arid {{ATOVS}} Satellite Sounding Data on the Accuracy of Numerical Weather Forecasts}, + author = {English, S. J. and Renshaw, R. J. and Dibben, P. C. and Smith, A. J. and Rayer, P. J. and Poulsen, C. and Saunders, F. W. and Eyre, J. R.}, + date = {2000}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {126}, + number = {569}, + pages = {2911--2931}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.49712656915}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.49712656915}, + urldate = {2023-03-16}, + abstract = {The Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) was launched on the NOAA-15 satellite in May 1998. This provided a very significant improvement in the information available from meteorological polar-orbiting satellites compared with the previous TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder system, particularly for humidity and vertical resolution of temperature in cloudy areas. In preparation for assimilation of the observations into a three-dimensional analysis of atmospheric temperature and humidity, the observations have been compared with calculated top-of-atmosphere brightness temperatures computed from numerical weather prediction model profiles of temperature and humidity. Differences between observed and modelled brightness temperature are small. In some parts of the tropics and northern hemisphere the standard deviation of these differences for the tropospheric Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit sounding channels is only marginally higher than the radiometric noise of the observations. Early in 1999 a series of observation-system experiments were completed in which ATOVS observations were assimilated using a one-dimensional variational analysis. No use of the new humidity information could be made because of interference problems experienced by the microwave humidity sounder on ATOVS. Nonetheless, these experiments showed that the assimilation of the new temperature information provided by the radiance observations reduces forecast errors by as much as 20\% in the southern hemisphere and 5\% in the northern hemisphere. Further improvements have been found by assimilating more data over land. The major impact arises from the microwave channels. Whilst forward-model errors may be slightly lower for the microwave channels than the infrared channels the primary reason is the provision of sounding information in active weather systems, which are usually cloudy.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {1D-var,3D-var,ATOVS,Data assimilation,Numerical weather prediction,Satellite sounding}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/YAU6NBIZ/qj.html} +} + +@book{evensen2009, + title = {Data {{Assimilation}}}, + author = {Evensen, Geir}, + date = {2009}, + publisher = {{Springer}}, + location = {{Berlin, Heidelberg}}, + doi = {10.1007/978-3-642-03711-5}, + url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-642-03711-5}, + urldate = {2023-01-18}, + isbn = {978-3-642-03710-8 978-3-642-03711-5}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {bayesian statistics,Data assimilation,Ensemble Kalman Filter,Ensemble Kalman Smoother,inverse methods,Measure,parameter estimation}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/WVW3L5YK/Evensen_2009_Data Assimilation.pdf} +} + +@article{eyre2020, + title = {Assimilation of Satellite Data in Numerical Weather Prediction. {{Part I}}: {{The}} Early Years}, + shorttitle = {Assimilation of Satellite Data in Numerical Weather Prediction. {{Part I}}}, + author = {Eyre, J. R. and English, S. J. and Forsythe, M.}, + date = {2020}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {146}, + number = {726}, + pages = {49--68}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.3654}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3654}, + urldate = {2022-03-30}, + abstract = {Developments in the assimilation of satellite data in numerical weather prediction (NWP), from the first experiments in the late 1960s to the present day, are presented in a two-part review article. This first part reviews the early years, up to about the year 2000. It includes summaries of the relevant satellite remote sensing technologies, the theoretical and practical challenges faced when assimilating their data within NWP systems, and the impacts on forecast skill. An important part of this story concerns developments in the assimilation of information on atmospheric temperature and humidity provided by data from passive infrared and microwave radiometers. Following early successes with the assimilation of retrieved temperature profiles, there followed a problematic period, as other aspects of NWP systems improved and the impacts of satellite sounding data declined. Positive impacts were re-established in the 1990s through moves towards more direct assimilation of radiance information. Another important theme concerns developments in the assimilation of wind information via atmospheric motion vectors, which underwent a series of improvements during these years. Additional contributions were provided by information on ocean surface wind from scatterometers. Some contributions from other technologies during this period are also summarised.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {data assimilation,numerical weather prediction (NWP),observation,satellite} +} + +@article{eyre2022, + title = {Assimilation of Satellite Data in Numerical Weather Prediction. {{Part II}}: {{Recent}} Years}, + shorttitle = {Assimilation of Satellite Data in Numerical Weather Prediction. {{Part II}}}, + author = {Eyre, J. R. and Bell, W. and Cotton, J. and English, S. J. and Forsythe, M. and Healy, S. B. and Pavelin, E. G.}, + date = {2022}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {148}, + number = {743}, + pages = {521--556}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.4228}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.4228}, + urldate = {2022-03-30}, + abstract = {Developments in the assimilation of satellite data in numerical weather prediction (NWP), from the first experiments in the late 1960s to the present day, are presented in a two-part review article. This part, Part II, reviews the progress in recent years, from about 2000. It includes summaries of advances in the relevant satellite remote-sensing technologies and in methods to assimilate observations from these instruments into NWP systems. It also summarises impacts on forecast skill. Continued progress has been made on the assimilation of passive infrared (IR) sounding data and microwave (MW) sounding and imaging data. This has included data from hyperspectral IR sounders, which first became available during this period. Advances in the use of cloud-affected radiances, from both IR and MW instruments, have been made. In support of this progress, further developments have been made in fast radiative transfer models and in bias correction techniques, and work has continued to improve understanding and representation of observation uncertainties. Continued progress has also been made on the use of wind information from satellites, including atmospheric motion vectors and scatterometer data. A new source of temperature and humidity information, from radio occultation observations, has become available during the period and has been exploited by many NWP centres. The impact of satellite data on NWP accuracy is continually assessed using a range of methods and metrics. Some results from recent Observing System Experiments (OSEs) and Forecast Sensitivity to Observation Impact (FSOI) assessment are presented and other methods are discussed. The role of satellite data in NWP-based atmospheric reanalysis systems is also described.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {data assimilation,NWP,observation,satellite} +} + +@article{ferreira2017, + title = {Impacto da Assimilação de Dados de Radar em Sistemas Convectivos de Mesoescala: Um Estudo de Caso}, + shorttitle = {Impacto da Assimilação de Dados de Radar em Sistemas Convectivos de Mesoescala}, + author = {Ferreira, Rute Costa and Herdies, Dirceu Luis and Vendrasco, Éder Paulo and Beneti, César Augustus Assis and Biscaro, Thiago Souza}, + date = {2017-09}, + journaltitle = {Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia}, + shortjournal = {Rev. bras. meteorol.}, + volume = {32}, + number = {3}, + pages = {447--458}, + issn = {1982-4351, 0102-7786}, + doi = {10.1590/0102-77863230011}, + url = {http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0102-77862017000300447&tlng=pt}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {A study of a mesoscale convective system using radar data assimilation is presented. Simulations were made using reflectivity and radial velocity data from two radars (Cascavel and Asunción). Different initializations of the WRF-model were performed: without assimilation, with assimilation of conventional data, and with assimilation of radar. Results were compared with CoSch3 precipitation estimates. Reflectivity and radial velocity data were introduced to the model indirectly (by assimilating rain water mixing-ratio). Analysis generated from the data assimilation showed the impact of the radar data assimilation throughout the model vertical structure. We demonstrated that using cycles to initialize the model is fundamental to improve rainfall location forecasts. Assimilating radar data proved to be the best results to forecast intense precipitation cores. The results may contribute to improve early warning systems.}, + langid = {portuguese}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Ferreira/ferreira_2017_impact_of_radar_data_assimilation_in_a_mesoscale_convective_system_-_a_case_of.pdf;/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/JBIGDEZK/Ferreira et al. - 2017 - Impacto da Assimilação de Dados de Radar em Sistem.pdf} +} + +@article{ferreira2020, + title = {The {{Impact}} of {{Microphysics Parameterization}} on {{Precipitation Forecast Using Radar Data Assimilation}}}, + author = {Ferreira, Rute Costa and Alves Júnior, Mario Paulo and Vendrasco, éder Paulo and Aravéquia, José Antônio and Nolasco Junior, Luciano Ritter and Biscaro, Thiago Souza and Ferreira, Rute Costa and Alves Júnior, Mario Paulo and Vendrasco, éder Paulo and Aravéquia, José Antônio and Nolasco Junior, Luciano Ritter and Biscaro, Thiago Souza}, + date = {2020-03}, + journaltitle = {Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia}, + volume = {35}, + number = {1}, + pages = {123--134}, + publisher = {{Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia}}, + issn = {0102-7786}, + doi = {10.1590/0102-7786351005}, + url = {http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S0102-77862020000100123&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=pt}, + urldate = {2020-09-15}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Ferreira/ferreira_2020_impacto_das_parametrizações_de_microfísica_na_previsão_de_precipitação.pdf;/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Ferreira/ferreira_2020_the_impact_of_microphysics_parameterization_on_precipitation_forecast_using.pdf} +} + +@article{gao2015, + title = {Assimilation of Wind Speed and Direction Observations: Results from Real Observation Experiments}, + shorttitle = {Assimilation of Wind Speed and Direction Observations}, + author = {Gao, Feng and Huang, Xiang-Yu and Jacobs, Neil A. and Wang, Hongli}, + date = {2015-12-01}, + journaltitle = {Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography}, + volume = {67}, + number = {1}, + pages = {27132}, + publisher = {{Taylor \& Francis}}, + issn = {null}, + doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v67.27132}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27132}, + urldate = {2021-05-14}, + abstract = {The assimilation of wind observations in the form of speed and direction (asm\_sd) by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) was performed using real data and employing a series of cycling assimilation experiments for a 2-week period, as a follow-up for an idealised post hoc assimilation experiment. The satellite-derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) and surface dataset in Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) were assimilated. This new method takes into account the observation errors of both wind speed (spd) and direction (dir), and WRFDA background quality control (BKG-QC) influences the choice of wind observations, due to data conversions between (u,v) and (spd, dir). The impacts of BKG-QC, as well as the new method, on the wind analysis were analysed separately. Because the dir observational errors produced by different platforms are not known or tuned well in WRFDA, a practical method, which uses similar assimilation weights in comparative trials, was employed to estimate the spd and dir observation errors. The asm\_sd produces positive impacts on analyses and short-range forecasts of spd and dir with smaller root-mean-square errors than the u,v-based system. The bias of spd analysis decreases by 54.8\%. These improvements result partly from BKG-QC screening of spd and dir observations in a direct way, but mainly from the independent impact of spd (dir) data assimilation on spd (dir) analysis, which is the primary distinction from the standard WRFDA method. The potential impacts of asm\_sd on precipitation forecasts were evaluated. Results demonstrate that the asm\_sd is able to indirectly improve the precipitation forecasts by improving the prediction accuracies of key wind-related factors leading to precipitation (e.g. warm moist advection and frontogenesis).}, + keywords = {observation error,observation operator,quality control,variational assimilation,WRFDA}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/F8DUSNVH/Gao et al_2015_Assimilation of wind speed and direction observations.pdf} +} + +@misc{garcia2019, + title = {Argentina Mesonet Data. {{Version}} 1.1. {{UCAR}}/{{NCAR}} - Earth Observing Laboratory.}, + author = {Garcia, Fernando and Ruiz, Juan and Salio, Paola and Bechis, Hernan and Nesbitt, Steve}, + date = {2019}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.26023/JEXB-W6B6-E310} +} + +@thesis{garciaskabar1997, + title = {Análisis objetivo regional para inicializar un modelo de diez niveles en forma operativa. Tesis de licenciatura en ciencias de la atmósfera}, + author = {García Skabar, Yanina}, + date = {1997}, + institution = {{Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales}}, + langid = {spanish} +} + +@article{gasperoni2018, + title = {Assessing {{Impacts}} of the {{High-Frequency Assimilation}} of {{Surface Observations}} for the {{Forecast}} of {{Convection Initiation}} on 3 {{April}} 2014 within the {{Dallas}}–{{Fort Worth Test Bed}}}, + author = {Gasperoni, Nicholas A. and Wang, Xuguang and Brewster, Keith A. and Carr, Frederick H.}, + date = {2018-11-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {146}, + number = {11}, + pages = {3845--3872}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-18-0177.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/146/11/mwr-d-18-0177.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract The Nationwide Network of Networks (NNoN) concept was introduced by the National Research Council to address the growing need for a national mesoscale observing system and the continued advancement toward accurate high-resolution numerical weather prediction. The research test bed known as the Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) Urban Demonstration Network was created to experiment with many kinds of mesoscale observations that could be used in a data assimilation system. Many nonconventional observations, including Earth Networks and Citizen Weather Observer Program surface stations, are combined with conventional operational data to form the test bed network. A principal component of the NNoN effort is the quantification of observation impact from several different sources of information. In this study, the GSI-based EnKF system was used together with the WRF-ARW Model to examine impacts of observations assimilated for forecasting convection initiation (CI) in the 3 April 2014 hail storm case. Data denial experiments tested the impact of high-frequency (5 min) assimilation of nonconventional data on the timing and location of CI and subsequent storm evolution. Results showed nonconventional observations were necessary to capture details in the dryline structure causing localized enhanced convergence and leading to CI. Diagnosis of denial-minus-control fields showed the cumulative influence each observing network had on the resulting CI forecast. It was found that most of this impact came from the assimilation of thermodynamic observations in sensitive areas along the dryline gradient. Accurate metadata were found to be crucial toward the future application of nonconventional observations in high-resolution assimilation and forecast systems.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/H3SXIRPJ/Gasperoni et al_2018_Assessing Impacts of the High-Frequency Assimilation of Surface Observations.pdf} +} + +@inproceedings{goncalvesdegoncalves2015, + title = {A Rapid Update Data Assimilation Cycle over {{South America}} Using {{3DVar}} and {{EnKF}}}, + booktitle = {The 20th {{International TOVS Study Conference}} ({{ITSC-20}})}, + author = {Goncalves de Goncalves, Luis G. and Sapucci, Luiz and Vendrasco, Eder and family=Mattos, given=João Gerd, prefix=de, useprefix=true and Ferreira, Camila and Khamis, Eduardo and Cruz, Nicolas}, + date = {2015}, + publisher = {{The 20th International TOVS Study Conference (ITSC-20)}}, + location = {{Lake Geneva, Wisconsin, USA}} +} + +@unknown{goncalvesdegoncalves2015a, + title = {A Rapid Update Data Assimilation Cycle over {{South America}} Using {{3DVar}} and {{EnKF}}}, + author = {Goncalves de Goncalves, Luis Gustavo and Sapucci, Luiz and Vendrasco, Eder and family=Mattos, given=João Gerd, prefix=de, useprefix=true and Ferreira, Camila and Khamis, Eduardo and Cruz, Nicolas}, + date = {2015-10}, + journaltitle = {The 20th International TOVS Study Conference (ITSC-20)}, + location = {{Lake Geneva, Wisconsin, USA}}, + doi = {DOI:10.13140/RG.2.1.5143.7205}, + eventtitle = {The 20th {{International TOVS Study Conference}} ({{ITSC-20}})}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/SSLREC33/Goncalves de Goncalves et al_2015_A rapid update data assimilation cycle over South America using 3DVar and EnKF.pdf} +} + +@article{grell2013, + title = {A Scale and Aerosol Aware Stochastic Convective Parameterization for Weather and Air Quality Modeling}, + author = {Grell, G. A. and Freitas, S. R.}, + date = {2013-09-11}, + journaltitle = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions}, + shortjournal = {Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.}, + volume = {13}, + number = {9}, + pages = {23845--23893}, + issn = {1680-7375}, + doi = {10.5194/acpd-13-23845-2013}, + url = {https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/13/23845/2013/}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {Abstract. A convective parameterization is described and evaluated that may be used in high resolution non-hydrostatic mesoscale models as well as in modeling systems with unstructured varying grid resolutions and for convection aware simulations. This scheme is based on a stochastic approach originally implemented by Grell and Devenyi (2002). Two approaches are tested on resolutions ranging from 20 to 5 km. One approach is based on spreading subsidence to neighboring grid points, the other one on a recently introduced method by Arakawa et al. (2011). Results from model intercomparisons, as well as verification with observations indicate that both the spreading of the subsidence and Arakawa's approach work well for the highest resolution runs. Because of its simplicity and its capability for an automatic smooth transition as the resolution is increased, Arakawa's approach may be preferred. Additionally, interactions with aerosols have been implemented through a CCN dependent autoconversion of cloud water to rain as well as an aerosol dependent evaporation of cloud drops. Initial tests with this newly implemented aerosol approach show plausible results with a decrease in predicted precipitation in some areas, caused by the changed autoconversion mechanism. This change also causes a significant increase of cloud water and ice detrainment near the cloud tops. Some areas also experience an increase of precipitation, most likely caused by strengthened downdrafts.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/T8AD8U7L/Grell and Freitas - 2013 - A scale and aerosol aware stochastic convective pa.pdf} +} + +@article{gustafsson2018, + title = {Survey of Data Assimilation Methods for Convective‐scale Numerical Weather Prediction at Operational Centres}, + author = {Gustafsson, Nils and Janjić, Tijana and Schraff, Christoph and Leuenberger, Daniel and Weissmann, Martin and Reich, Hendrik and Brousseau, Pierre and Montmerle, Thibaut and Wattrelot, Eric and Bučánek, Antonín and Mile, Máté and Hamdi, Rafiq and Lindskog, Magnus and Barkmeijer, Jan and Dahlbom, Mats and Macpherson, Bruce and Ballard, Sue and Inverarity, Gordon and Carley, Jacob and Alexander, Curtis and Dowell, David and Liu, Shun and Ikuta, Yasutaka and Fujita, Tadashi}, + date = {2018-04}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + shortjournal = {Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.}, + volume = {144}, + number = {713}, + pages = {1218--1256}, + issn = {0035-9009, 1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.3179}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3179}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Gustafsson/gustafsson_2018_survey_of_data_assimilation_methods_for_convective‐scale_numerical_weather.pdf} +} + +@article{ha2014, + title = {Influence of {{Surface Observations}} in {{Mesoscale Data Assimilation Using}} an {{Ensemble Kalman Filter}}}, + author = {Ha, So-Young and Snyder, Chris}, + date = {2014-04-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {142}, + number = {4}, + pages = {1489--1508}, + issn = {0027-0644, 1520-0493}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-13-00108.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00108.1}, + urldate = {2021-03-19}, + abstract = {The assimilation of surface observations using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach was successfully performed in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) coupled with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) system. The mesoscale cycling experiment for the continuous ensemble data assimilation was verified against independent surface mesonet observations and demonstrated the positive impact on short-range forecasts over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) domain throughout the month-long period of June 2008. The EnKF assimilation of surface observations was found useful for systematically improving the simulation of the depth and the structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the reduction of surface bias errors. These benefits were extended above PBL and resulted in a better precipitation forecast for up to 12 h. With the careful specification of observation errors, not only the reliability of the ensemble system but also the quality of the following forecast was improved, especially in moisture. In this retrospective case study of a squall line, assimilation of surface observations produced analysis increments consistent with the structure and dynamics of the boundary layer. As a result, it enhanced the horizontal gradient of temperature and moisture across the frontal system to provide a favorable condition for the convective initiation and the following heavy rainfall prediction in the Oklahoma Panhandle. Even with the assimilation of upper-level observations, the analysis without the assimilation of surface observations simulated a surface cold front that was much weaker and slower than observed.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/LF84MK49/Ha and Snyder - 2014 - Influence of Surface Observations in Mesoscale Dat.pdf} +} + +@report{han2006, + title = {{{JCSDA Community Radiative Transfer Model}} ({{CRTM}})—Version 1}, + author = {Han, Y and Van Delst, Paul and Liu, Q and Weng, F. and Yan, B. and Treadon, Russ and Derber, John}, + date = {2006}, + pages = {40}, + location = {{Washington, D.C.}}, + url = {https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/1157/noaa_1157_DS1.pdf} +} + +@misc{heidinger2013, + title = {{{ABI Cloud Mask}}}, + author = {Heidinger, Andrew and Straka III, William C}, + date = {2013-06-11}, + url = {https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goesr/docs/ATBD/Cloud_Mask.pdf}, + urldate = {2023-05-27}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/WZ8PBXLE/Cloud_Mask.pdf} +} + +@article{hobouchian2018, + title = {Evaluación de estimaciones de precipitación por satélite en el sur de Sudamérica}, + author = {Hobouchian, María Paula and García Skabar, Yanina and Salio, Paola and Viale, Maximiliano and Matsudo, Cynthia Mariana}, + date = {2018-10}, + publisher = {{Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Gerencia de Investigación, Desarrollo y Capacitación. Departamento de Investigación y Desarrollo.}}, + url = {http://repositorio.smn.gob.ar/handle/20.500.12160/884}, + urldate = {2023-04-13}, + abstract = {La utilización y los avances de las estimaciones de precipitación por satélite motivan la validación diaria de los productos actuales de la misión Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) en un periodo común de 3 años. Se calcularon los índices estadísticos por regiones en el sur de Sudamérica en línea con la metodología utilizada en estudios previos, usando la red de estaciones disponible en el Servicio Meteorológico nacional (SMN) y otra red de pluviómetros sobre los Andes Subtropicales. Se observó una ventaja mínima de IMERG-LR sobre IMERG-ER y mayores limitaciones para GSMaP-NRT.}, + langid = {spanish}, + annotation = {Accepted: 2018-12-18T15:36:02Z}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/5NWAJRGV/Hobouchian et al_2018_Evaluación de estimaciones de precipitación por satélite en el sur de Sudamérica.pdf} +} + +@article{hohenegger2007, + title = {Atmospheric {{Predictability}} at {{Synoptic Versus Cloud-Resolving Scales}}}, + author = {Hohenegger, Cathy and Schar, Christoph}, + date = {2007-11-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {88}, + number = {11}, + pages = {1783--1794}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/BAMS-88-11-1783}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/88/11/bams-88-11-1783.xml}, + urldate = {2023-01-23}, + abstract = {The limited atmospheric predictability has been addressed by the development of ensemble prediction systems (EPS) that are now routinely applied for medium-range synoptic-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP). With the increase of computational power, interest is growing in the design of high-resolution (cloud resolving) NWP models and their associated short-range EPS. This development raises a series of fundamental questions, especially concerning the type of error growth and the validity of the tangent-linear approximation. To address these issues, a comparison between perturbed medium-range (10 day) synoptic-scale integrations (taken from the operational ECMWF EPS with a horizontal resolution of about 80 km) and short-range (1 day) high-resolution simulations (based on the Lokal Modell of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling with a grid spacing of 2.2 km) is conducted. The differences between the two systems are interpreted in a nondimensional sense and illustrated with the help of the Lorenz attractor. Typical asymptotic perturbation-doubling times of cloud-resolving and synoptic-scale simulations amount to about 4 and 40 h, respectively, and are primarily related to convective and baroclinic instability. Thus, in terms of growth rates, integrating a 1-day cloud-resolving forecast may be seen as equivalent to performing a 10-day synoptic-scale simulation. However, analysis of the prevailing linearity reveals that the two systems are fundamentally different in the following sense: the tangent-linear approximation breaks down at 1.5 h for cloud resolving against 54 h for synoptic-scale forecasts. In terms of nonlinearity, a 10-day synoptic-scale integration thus corresponds to a very short cloud-resolving simulation of merely about 7 h. The higher degree of nonlinearity raises questions concerning the direct application of standard synoptic-scale forecasting methodologies (e.g., optimal perturbations, 4D variational data assimilation, or targeted observations) to 1-day cloud-resolving forecasting.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/98UKPBSI/Hohenegger_Schar_2007_Atmospheric Predictability at Synoptic Versus Cloud-Resolving Scales.pdf} +} + +@article{honda2018, + title = {Assimilating {{All-Sky Himawari-8 Satellite Infrared Radiances}}: {{A Case}} of {{Typhoon Soudelor}} (2015)}, + shorttitle = {Assimilating {{All-Sky Himawari-8 Satellite Infrared Radiances}}}, + author = {Honda, Takumi and Miyoshi, Takemasa and Lien, Guo-Yuan and Nishizawa, Seiya and Yoshida, Ryuji and Adachi, Sachiho A. and Terasaki, Koji and Okamoto, Kozo and Tomita, Hirofumi and Bessho, Kotaro}, + date = {2018-01-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {146}, + number = {1}, + pages = {213--229}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-16-0357.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/146/1/mwr-d-16-0357.1.xml}, + urldate = {2023-03-30}, + abstract = {Abstract Japan’s new geostationary satellite Himawari-8, the first of a series of the third-generation geostationary meteorological satellites including GOES-16, has been operational since July 2015. Himawari-8 produces high-resolution observations with 16 frequency bands every 10 min for full disk, and every 2.5 min for local regions. This study aims to assimilate all-sky every-10-min infrared (IR) radiances from Himawari-8 with a regional numerical weather prediction model and to investigate its impact on real-world tropical cyclone (TC) analyses and forecasts for the first time. The results show that the assimilation of Himawari-8 IR radiances improves the analyzed TC structure in both inner-core and outer-rainband regions. The TC intensity forecasts are also improved due to Himawari-8 data because of the improved TC structure analysis.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/SVSL7ITJ/Honda et al. - 2018 - Assimilating All-Sky Himawari-8 Satellite Infrared.pdf} +} + +@article{hong2006, + title = {A {{New Vertical Diffusion Package}} with an {{Explicit Treatment}} of {{Entrainment Processes}}}, + author = {Hong, Song-You and Noh, Yign and Dudhia, Jimy}, + date = {2006-09}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {134}, + number = {9}, + pages = {2318--2341}, + issn = {0027-0644, 1520-0493}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR3199.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR3199.1}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {This paper proposes a revised vertical diffusion package with a nonlocal turbulent mixing coefficient in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Based on the study of Noh et al. and accumulated results of the behavior of the Hong and Pan algorithm, a revised vertical diffusion algorithm that is suitable for weather forecasting and climate prediction models is developed. The major ingredient of the revision is the inclusion of an explicit treatment of entrainment processes at the top of the PBL. The new diffusion package is called the Yonsei University PBL (YSU PBL). In a one-dimensional offline test framework, the revised scheme is found to improve several features compared with the Hong and Pan implementation. The YSU PBL increases boundary layer mixing in the thermally induced free convection regime and decreases it in the mechanically induced forced convection regime, which alleviates the well-known problems in the MediumRange Forecast (MRF) PBL. Excessive mixing in the mixed layer in the presence of strong winds is resolved. Overly rapid growth of the PBL in the case of the Hong and Pan is also rectified. The scheme has been successfully implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast model producing a more realistic structure of the PBL and its development. In a case study of a frontal tornado outbreak, it is found that some systematic biases of the large-scale features such as an afternoon cold bias at 850 hPa in the MRF PBL are resolved. Consequently, the new scheme does a better job in reproducing the convective inhibition. Because the convective inhibition is accurately predicted, widespread light precipitation ahead of a front, in the case of the MRF PBL, is reduced. In the frontal region, the YSU PBL scheme improves some characteristics, such as a double line of intense convection. This is because the boundary layer from the YSU PBL scheme remains less diluted by entrainment leaving more fuel for severe convection when the front triggers it.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/3QCV34KC/Hong et al. - 2006 - A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit .pdf} +} + +@article{hong2006a, + title = {The {{WRF Single Moment}} 6-{{Class Microphysics Scheme}} ({{WSM6}})}, + author = {Hong, Song-You and Kim, Ju-Hye and Lim, Jeong-ock and Dudhia, Jimy}, + date = {2006-03}, + journaltitle = {Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society}, + volume = {42}, + pages = {129--151} +} + +@article{hotta2017, + title = {Proactive {{QC}}: {{A Fully Flow-Dependent Quality Control Scheme Based}} on {{EFSO}}}, + shorttitle = {Proactive {{QC}}}, + author = {Hotta, Daisuke and Chen, Tse-Chun and Kalnay, Eugenia and Ota, Yoichiro and Miyoshi, Takemasa}, + date = {2017-08}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {145}, + number = {8}, + pages = {3331--3354}, + issn = {0027-0644, 1520-0493}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-16-0290.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0290.1}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + abstract = {Despite dramatic improvements over the last decades, operational NWP forecasts still occasionally suffer from abrupt drops in their forecast skill. Such forecast skill ‘‘dropouts’’ may occur even in a perfect NWP system because of the stochastic nature of NWP but can also result from flaws in the NWP system. Recent studies have shown that dropouts occur due not to a model’s deficiencies but to misspecified initial conditions, suggesting that they could be mitigated by improving the quality control (QC) system so that the observationminus-background (O-B) innovations that would degrade a forecast can be detected and rejected. The ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) technique enables for the quantification of how much each observation has improved or degraded the forecast. A recent study has shown that 24-h EFSO can detect detrimental O-B innovations that caused regional forecast skill dropouts and that the forecast can be improved by not assimilating them. Inspired by that success, a new QC method is proposed, termed proactive QC (PQC), that detects detrimental innovations 6 h after the analysis using EFSO and then repeats the analysis and forecast without using them. PQC is implemented and tested on a lower-resolution version of NCEP’s operational global NWP system. It is shown that EFSO is insensitive to the choice of verification and lead time (24 or 6 h) and that PQC likely improves the analysis, as attested to by forecast improvements of up to 5 days and beyond. Strategies for reducing the computational costs and further optimizing the observation rejection criteria are also discussed.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Hotta/hotta_2017_proactive_qc_-_a_fully_flow-dependent_quality_control_scheme_based_on_efso.pdf} +} + +@report{hu2018, + title = {Grid-Point {{Statistical Interpolation}} ({{GSI}}) {{User}}'s {{Guide Version}} 3.7}, + author = {Hu, Ming and Ge, Guoqing and Zhou, Chunhua and Stark, Don and Shao, Hui and Newman, Kathryn and Beck, Jeff and Zhang, Xin}, + date = {2018}, + pages = {149}, + institution = {{Developmental Testbed Center}}, + url = {https://dtcenter.org/community-code/gridpoint-statistical-interpolation-gsi/documentation} +} + +@article{hu2019, + title = {Remote {{Sensing}} of {{Tropical Cyclone Thermal Structure}} from {{Satellite Microwave Sounding Instruments}}: {{Impacts}} of {{Background Profiles}} on {{Retrievals}}}, + shorttitle = {Remote {{Sensing}} of {{Tropical Cyclone Thermal Structure}} from {{Satellite Microwave Sounding Instruments}}}, + author = {Hu, Hao and Weng, Fuzhong and Han, Yang and Duan, Yihong}, + date = {2019-02-01}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Meteorological Research}, + shortjournal = {J Meteorol Res}, + volume = {33}, + number = {1}, + pages = {89--103}, + issn = {2198-0934}, + doi = {10.1007/s13351-019-8094-1}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-019-8094-1}, + urldate = {2023-02-20}, + abstract = {A variational retrieval system often requires background atmospheric profiles and surface parameters in its minimization process. This study investigates the impacts of specific background profiles on retrievals of tropical cyclone (TC) thermal structure. In our Microwave Retrieval Testbed (MRT), the K-means clustering algorithm is utilized to generate a set of mean temperature and water vapor profiles according to stratiform and convective precipitation in hurricane conditions. The Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) observations are then used to select the profiles according to cloud type. It is shown that the cloud-based background profiles result in better hurricane thermal structures retrieved from ATMS observations. Compared to the Global Positioning System (GPS) dropsonde observations, the temperature and specific humidity errors in the TC inner region are less than 3 K and 2.5 g kg–1, respectively, which are significantly smaller than the retrievals without using the cloud-based profiles. Further experiments show that all the ATMS observations could retrieve well both temperature and humidity structures, especially within the inner core region. Thus, both temperature and humidity profiles derived from microwave sounding instruments in hurricane conditions can be reliably used for evaluation of the storm intensity with a high fidelity.}, + langid = {english} +} + +@article{hu2021, + title = {Comparing the {{Thermal Structures}} of {{Tropical Cyclones Derived From Suomi NPP ATMS}} and {{FY-3D Microwave Sounders}}}, + author = {Hu, Hao and Han, Yang}, + date = {2021-10}, + journaltitle = {IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing}, + volume = {59}, + number = {10}, + pages = {8073--8083}, + issn = {1558-0644}, + doi = {10.1109/TGRS.2020.3034262}, + abstract = {Accurate information on the thermal structures of tropical cyclones (TCs) is essential for monitoring and forecasting their intensity and location. In this study, a scene-dependent 1-D variation (SD1DVAR) algorithm is developed to retrieve atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles under all-weather conditions. In SD1DVAR, the background and observation error matrix varies according to the scattering intensity. Especially, the observation error matrix increases in precipitating atmospheres due to a larger uncertainty in the forward operator. With the data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite, SD1DVAR can retrieve better thermal structures in the storm life cycle than NOAA Microwave Integrated Retrieval System (MIRS). Comparing with the aircraft dropsonde observations, the temperature and humidity errors from SD1DVAR are about 3 K and 20\%, respectively, whereas those from MIRS are around 4 K–5 K and 30\%, respectively. SD1DVAR is also applied for Microwave Temperature Sounder (MWTS) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS) onboard FengYun-3D (FY-3D) satellite. The MWTS and MWHS data sets are first combined into a single Comprehensive MicroWave Suite (CMWS) data stream and then used to retrieve the hurricane thermal structures. It is shown that the hurricane structure from CMWS is very similar to that from ATMS. However, due to the availability of 118-GHz measurements from the CMWS, the hurricane temperature vertical structure is better resolved, and the humidity error is also reduced by about 5\%.}, + eventtitle = {{{IEEE Transactions}} on {{Geoscience}} and {{Remote Sensing}}}, + keywords = {1-D variation,Covariance matrices,Electromagnetic heating,Humidity,Microwave measurement,Microwave radiometry,Microwave sounding retrieval,Ocean temperature,Scattering,scene-dependent,tropical cyclone (TC)}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/PPW3H8QZ/9258412.html} +} + +@report{huffman2018, + title = {{{NASA Global Precipitation Measurement}} ({{GPM}}) {{Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals}} for {{GPM}} ({{IMERG}})}, + author = {Huffman, George and Bolvin, David and Braithwaite, Dan and Hsu, Kuolin and Joyce, Robert and Kidd, Christopher and Nelkin, Eric and Sorooshian, S. and Tan, J. and Xie,, Pingping}, + date = {2018-02-07}, + pages = {35}, + institution = {{National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)}}, + url = {https://docserver.gesdisc.eosdis.nasa.gov/public/project/GPM/IMERG_ATBD_V5.pdf}, + urldate = {2020-06-23}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/XU5K3YXN/IMERG_ATBD_V5.pdf} +} + +@article{hunt2007, + title = {Efficient Data Assimilation for Spatiotemporal Chaos: {{A}} Local Ensemble Transform {{Kalman}} Filter}, + shorttitle = {Efficient Data Assimilation for Spatiotemporal Chaos}, + author = {Hunt, Brian R. and Kostelich, Eric J. and Szunyogh, Istvan}, + date = {2007-06}, + journaltitle = {Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena}, + shortjournal = {Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena}, + volume = {230}, + number = {1-2}, + pages = {112--126}, + issn = {01672789}, + doi = {10.1016/j.physd.2006.11.008}, + url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0167278906004647}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + abstract = {Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system’s time evolution. Rather than solving the problem from scratch each time new observations become available, one uses the model to “forecast” the current state, using a prior state estimate (which incorporates information from past data) as the initial condition, then uses current data to correct the prior forecast to a current state estimate. This Bayesian approach is most effective when the uncertainty in both the observations and in the state estimate, as it evolves over time, are accurately quantified. In this article, we describe a practical method for data assimilation in large, spatiotemporally chaotic systems. The method is a type of “ensemble Kalman filter”, in which the state estimate and its approximate uncertainty are represented at any given time by an ensemble of system states. We discuss both the mathematical basis of this approach and its implementation; our primary emphasis is on ease of use and computational speed rather than improving accuracy over previously published approaches to ensemble Kalman filtering. We include some numerical results demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of our implementation for assimilating real atmospheric data with the global forecast model used by the US National Weather Service.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Hunt/hunt_2007_efficient_data_assimilation_for_spatiotemporal_chaos_-_a_local_ensemble.pdf;/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/472C7IRG/Hunt et al. - 2007 - Efficient data assimilation for spatiotemporal cha.pdf} +} + +@article{iacono2008, + title = {Radiative Forcing by Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases: {{Calculations}} with the {{AER}} Radiative Transfer Models}, + shorttitle = {Radiative Forcing by Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases}, + author = {Iacono, Michael J. and Delamere, Jennifer S. and Mlawer, Eli J. and Shephard, Mark W. and Clough, Shepard A. and Collins, William D.}, + date = {2008-07-02}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, + shortjournal = {J. Geophys. Res.}, + volume = {113}, + number = {D13}, + pages = {D13103}, + issn = {0148-0227}, + doi = {10.1029/2008JD009944}, + url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1029/2008JD009944}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/5QJDTM2M/Iacono et al. - 2008 - Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases .pdf} +} + +@article{iacovazzi2020, + title = {{{NOAA Operational Microwave Sounding Radiometer Data Quality Monitoring}} and {{Anomaly Assessment Using COSMIC GNSS Radio-Occultation Soundings}}}, + author = {Iacovazzi, Robbie and Lin, Lin and Sun, Ninghai and Liu, Quanhua}, + date = {2020-01}, + journaltitle = {Remote Sensing}, + volume = {12}, + number = {5}, + pages = {828}, + publisher = {{Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute}}, + issn = {2072-4292}, + doi = {10.3390/rs12050828}, + url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/5/828}, + urldate = {2023-02-20}, + abstract = {National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) data used in numerical weather prediction and climate analysis are essential to protect life and property and maintain safe and efficient commerce. Routine data quality monitoring and anomaly assessment is important to sustain data effectiveness. One valuable parameter used to monitor microwave sounder data quality is the antenna temperature (Ta) difference (O-B) computed between direct instrument Ta measurements and forward radiative transfer model (RTM) brightness temperature (Tb) simulations. This requires microwave radiometer data to be collocated with atmospheric temperature and moisture sounding profiles, so that representative boundary conditions are used to produce the RTM-simulated Tb values. In this study, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate/Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (COSMIC) Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Radio Occultation (RO) soundings over the ocean and equatorward of 60° latitude are used as input to the Community RTM (CRTM) to generate simulated NOAA-18, NOAA-19, Metop-A, and Metop-B AMSU-A and S-NPP and NOAA-20 ATMS Tb values. These simulated Tb values, together with observed Ta values that are nearly simultaneous in space and time, are used to compute Ta O-B statistics on monthly time scales for each instrument. In addition, the CRTM-simulated Tb values based on the COSMIC GNSS RO soundings can be used as a transfer standard to inter-compare Ta values from different microwave radiometer makes and models that have the same bands. For example, monthly Ta O-B statistics for NOAA-18 AMSU-A Channels 4–12 and NOAA-20 ATMS Channels 5–13 can be differenced to estimate the “double-difference” Ta biases between these two instruments for the corresponding frequency bands. This study reveals that the GNSS RO soundings are critical to monitoring and trending individual instrument O-B Ta biases and inter-instrument “double-difference” Ta biases and also to estimate impacts of some sensor anomalies on instrument Ta values.}, + issue = {5}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {advanced technology microwave sounder,COSMIC-1,data quality tracking,GNSS radio occultation,joint polar satellite system,remote sensing,satellite instrument performance monitoring and anomaly detection}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/MXERY35Z/Iacovazzi et al. - 2020 - NOAA Operational Microwave Sounding Radiometer Dat.pdf} +} + +@article{irving2016, + title = {A {{Minimum Standard}} for {{Publishing Computational Results}} in the {{Weather}} and {{Climate Sciences}}}, + author = {Irving, Damien}, + date = {2016-07-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {97}, + number = {7}, + pages = {1149--1158}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00010.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/97/7/bams-d-15-00010.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-07-21}, + abstract = {Abstract Weather and climate science has undergone a computational revolution in recent decades, to the point where all modern research relies heavily on software and code. Despite this profound change in the research methods employed by weather and climate scientists, the reporting of computational results has changed very little in relevant academic journals. This lag has led to something of a reproducibility crisis, whereby it is impossible to replicate and verify most of today’s published computational results. While it is tempting to simply decry the slow response of journals and funding agencies in the face of this crisis, there are very few examples of reproducible weather and climate research upon which to base new communication standards. In an attempt to address this deficiency, this essay describes a procedure for reporting computational results that was employed in a recent Journal of Climate paper. The procedure was developed to be consistent with recommended computational best practices and seeks to minimize the time burden on authors, which has been identified as the most important barrier to publishing code. It should provide a starting point for weather and climate scientists looking to publish reproducible research, and it is proposed that journals could adopt the procedure as a minimum standard.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/R2YI2G4U/Irving_2016_A Minimum Standard for Publishing Computational Results in the Weather and.pdf} +} + +@article{janjic1994, + title = {The {{Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model}}: {{Further Developments}} of the {{Convection}}, {{Viscous Sublayer}}, and {{Turbulence Closure Schemes}}}, + shorttitle = {The {{Step-Mountain Eta Coordinate Model}}}, + author = {Janjić, Zaviša I.}, + date = {1994-05-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {122}, + number = {5}, + pages = {927--945}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<0927:TSMECM>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/1520-0493%281994%29122%3C0927%3ATSMECM%3E2.0.CO%3B2}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {The step-mountain eta model has shown a surprising skill in forecasting severe storms. Much of the credit for this should be given to the Betts and Miller (hereafter referred to as BM) convection scheme and the Mellor-Yamada (hereafter referred to as MY) planetary boundary layer (PBL) formulation. However, the eta model was occasionally producing heavy spurious precipitation over warm water, as well as widely spread light precipitation over oceans. In addition, the convective forcing, particularly the shallow one, could lead to negative entropy changes. As the possible causes of the problems, the convection scheme, the processes at the air-water interface, and the MY level 2 and level 2.5 PBL schemes were reexamined. A major revision of the BM scheme was made, a new marine viscous sublayer scheme was designed, and the MY schemes were retuned. The deep convective regimes are postulated to be characterized by a parameter called “cloud efficiency.” The relaxation time is extended for low cloud efficiencies and vice versa. It is also postulated that there is a range of reference equilibrium states. The specific reference state is chosen depending on the cloud efficiency. The treatment of the shallow cloud tops was modified, and the shallow reference humidity profiles are specified requiring that the entropy change be nonnegative. Over the oceans there are two layers: (a) a viscous sublayer with the vertical transports determined by the molecular diffusion, and (b) a layer above it with the vertical transports determined by the turbulence. The viscous sublayer operates in different regimes depending on the roughness Reynolds number. The MY level 2.5 turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) is initialized from above in the PBL, so that excessive TKE is dissipated at most places during the PBL spinup. The method for calculating the MY level 2.5 master length scale was rectified. To demonstrate the effects of the new schemes for the deep convection and the viscous sublayer, tests were made using two summer cases: one with heavy spurious precipitation, and another with a successful 36-h forecast of a tropical storm. The new schemes had dramatic positive impacts on the case with the spurious precipitation. The results were also favorable in the tropical storm case. The developments presented here were incorporated into the eta model in 1990. The details of further research will be reported elsewhere. The eta model became operational at the National Meteorological Center, Washington, D.C., in June 1993.}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Janjić/janjić_1994_the_step-mountain_eta_coordinate_model_-_further_developments_of_the_convection,.pdf} +} + +@article{janjic2018, + title = {On the Representation Error in Data Assimilation}, + author = {Janjić, T. and Bormann, N. and Bocquet, M. and Carton, J. A and Cohn, S. E. and Dance, S. L. and Losa, S. N. and Nichols, N. K. and Potthast, R. and Waller, J. A. and Weston, P.}, + date = {2018}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {144}, + number = {713}, + pages = {1257--1278}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.3130}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3130}, + urldate = {2023-05-15}, + abstract = {Representation, representativity, representativeness error, forward interpolation error, forward model error, observation-operator error, aggregation error and sampling error are all terms used to refer to components of observation error in the context of data assimilation. This article is an attempt to consolidate the terminology that has been used in the earth sciences literature and was suggested at a European Space Agency workshop held in Reading in April 2014. We review the state of the art and, through examples, motivate the terminology. In addition to a theoretical framework, examples from application areas of satellite data assimilation, ocean reanalysis and atmospheric chemistry data assimilation are provided. Diagnosing representation-error statistics as well as their use in state-of-the-art data assimilation systems is discussed within a consistent framework.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {aggregation error,forward interpolation error,observation error,observation- operator error,representativeness error,representativity error}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/AX48XNR9/Janjić et al_2018_On the representation error in data assimilation.pdf} +} + +@article{jones2013, + title = {Assimilation of {{Satellite Infrared Radiances}} and {{Doppler Radar Observations}} during a {{Cool Season Observing System Simulation Experiment}}}, + author = {Jones, Thomas A. and Otkin, Jason A. and Stensrud, David J. and Knopfmeier, Kent}, + date = {2013-10}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {141}, + number = {10}, + pages = {3273--3299}, + issn = {0027-0644, 1520-0493}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-12-00267.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00267.1}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + abstract = {An observing system simulation experiment is used to examine the impact of assimilating water vapor–sensitive satellite infrared brightness temperatures and Doppler radar reflectivity and radial velocity observations on the analysis accuracy of a cool season extratropical cyclone. Assimilation experiments are performed for four different combinations of satellite, radar, and conventional observations using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation system. Comparison with the high-resolution ‘‘truth’’ simulation indicates that the joint assimilation of satellite and radar observations reduces errors in cloud properties compared to the case in which only conventional observations are assimilated. The satellite observations provide the most impact in the mid- to upper troposphere, whereas the radar data also improve the cloud analysis near the surface and aloft as a result of their greater vertical resolution and larger overall sample size. Errors in the wind field are also significantly reduced when radar radial velocity observations were assimilated. Overall, assimilating both satellite and radar data creates the most accurate model analysis, which indicates that both observation types provide independent and complimentary information and illustrates the potential for these datasets for improving mesoscale model analyses and ensuing forecasts.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Jones/jones_2013_assimilation_of_satellite_infrared_radiances_and_doppler_radar_observations.pdf} +} + +@article{jones2014, + title = {Forecast {{Evaluation}} of an {{Observing System Simulation Experiment Assimilating Both Radar}} and {{Satellite Data}}}, + author = {Jones, Thomas A. and Otkin, Jason A. and Stensrud, David J. and Knopfmeier, Kent}, + date = {2014-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {142}, + number = {1}, + pages = {107--124}, + issn = {0027-0644, 1520-0493}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-13-00151.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00151.1}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + abstract = {In the first part of this study, Jones et al. compared the relative skill of assimilating simulated radar reflectivity and radial velocity observations and satellite 6.95-mm brightness temperatures TB and found that both improved analyses of water vapor and cloud hydrometeor variables for a cool-season, high-impact weather event across the central United States. In this study, the authors examine the impact of the observations on 1–3-h forecasts and provide additional analysis of the relationship between simulated satellite and radar data observations to various water vapor and cloud hydrometeor variables. Correlation statistics showed that the radar and satellite observations are sensitive to different variables. Assimilating 6.95-mm TB primarily improved the atmospheric water vapor and frozen cloud hydrometeor variables such as ice and snow. Radar reflectivity proved more effective in both the lower and midtroposphere with the best results observed for rainwater, graupel, and snow. The impacts of assimilating both datasets decrease rapidly as a function of forecast time. By 1 h, the effects of satellite data become small on forecast cloud hydrometeor values, though it remains useful for atmospheric water vapor. The impacts of radar data last somewhat longer, sometimes up to 3 h, but also display a large decrease in effectiveness by 1 h. Generally, assimilating both satellite and radar data simultaneously generates the best analysis and forecast for most cloud hydrometeor variables.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Jones/jones_2014_forecast_evaluation_of_an_observing_system_simulation_experiment_assimilating.pdf} +} + +@article{jones2020, + title = {Assimilation of {{GOES-16 Radiances}} and {{Retrievals}} into the {{Warn-on-Forecast System}}}, + author = {Jones, Thomas A. and Skinner, Patrick and Yussouf, Nusrat and Knopfmeier, Kent and Reinhart, Anthony and Wang, Xuguang and Bedka, Kristopher and Smith, William and Palikonda, Rabindra}, + date = {2020-05-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {148}, + number = {5}, + pages = {1829--1859}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-19-0379.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/148/5/1829/346741/Assimilation-of-GOES-16-Radiances-and-Retrievals}, + urldate = {2020-09-16}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Jones/jones_2020_assimilation_of_goes-16_radiances_and_retrievals_into_the_warn-on-forecast.pdf} +} + +@article{kain2004, + title = {The {{Kain}}–{{Fritsch Convective Parameterization}}: {{An Update}}}, + author = {Kain, John S}, + date = {2004}, + journaltitle = {JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY}, + volume = {43}, + pages = {12}, + abstract = {Numerous modifications to the Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization have been implemented over the last decade. These modifications are described, and the motivating factors for the changes are discussed. Most changes were inspired by feedback from users of the scheme (primarily numerical modelers) and interpreters of the model output (mainly operational forecasters). The specific formulation of the modifications evolved from an effort to produce desired effects in numerical weather prediction while also rendering the scheme more faithful to observations and cloud-resolving modeling studies.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/AN75QC9M/Kain - 2004 - The Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization An U.pdf} +} + +@online{kalnay2002, + title = {Atmospheric {{Modeling}}, {{Data Assimilation}} and {{Predictability}}}, + author = {Kalnay, Eugenia}, + date = {2002-11-06}, + publisher = {{Cambridge University Press}}, + doi = {10.1017/CBO9780511802270}, + url = {https://www.cambridge.org/highereducation/books/atmospheric-modeling-data-assimilation-and-predictability/C5FD207439132836E85027754CE9BC1A}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {This comprehensive text and reference work on numerical weather prediction, first published in 2002, covers not only methods for numerical modeling, but also the important related areas of data assimilation and predictability. It incorporates all aspects of environmental computer modeling including an historical overview of the subject, equations of motion and their approximations, a modern and clear description of numerical methods, and the determination of initial conditions using weather observations (an important science known as data assimilation). Finally, this book provides a clear discussion of the problems of predictability and chaos in dynamical systems and how they can be applied to atmospheric and oceanic systems. Professors and students in meteorology, atmospheric science, oceanography, hydrology and environmental science will find much to interest them in this book, which can also form the basis of one or more graduate-level courses.}, + isbn = {9780511802270}, + langid = {english}, + organization = {{Higher Education from Cambridge University Press}} +} + +@article{kelly1978, + title = {Impact of {{Nimbus-6 Temperature Soundings}} on {{Australian Region Forecasts}}}, + author = {Kelly, G. a. M. and Mills, G. A. and Smith, W. L.}, + date = {1978-04-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {59}, + number = {4}, + pages = {393--406}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0477-59.4.393}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/59/4/1520-0477-59_4_393.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {To test the impact of high-resolution Nimbus-6 sounding data on Australian region forecasts, two parallel analysis/forecast cycling experiments were carried out, using data for 14 days during August and September 1975. In one of these cycles, only conventional data and manual interpretation of satellite imagery were used as input, while the other cycle used conventional and Nimbus-6 sounding data. A manual mean sea level pressure analysis was used in each cycle to provide reference level information over the oceans. Two series of 24 h limited area prognoses were prepared from these two sets of analyses, using the primitive equations prognosis model developed at the Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Centre. An average improvement in geopotential forecasts of more than 5 skill score points was achieved at all levels over the Australian continent when the Nimbus-6 data were included in the base analyses. Also, significant reductions were obtained in 24 h forecast root-mean-square (rms) temperature errors.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/YXKRJCXI/Kelly et al_1978_Impact of Nimbus-6 Temperature Soundings on Australian Region Forecasts.pdf} +} + +@article{kleist2009, + title = {Introduction of the {{GSI}} into the {{NCEP Global Data Assimilation System}}}, + author = {Kleist, Daryl T. and Parrish, David F. and Derber, John C. and Treadon, Russ and Wu, Wan-Shu and Lord, Stephen}, + date = {2009-12-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {24}, + number = {6}, + pages = {1691--1705}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0434, 0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/2009WAF2222201.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/24/6/2009waf2222201_1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-10-19}, + abstract = {Abstract At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a new three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) analysis system was implemented into the operational Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) on 1 May 2007. The new analysis system, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI), replaced the Spectral Statistical Interpolation (SSI) 3DVAR system, which had been operational since 1991. The GSI was developed at the Environmental Modeling Center at NCEP as part of an effort to create a more unified, robust, and efficient analysis scheme. The key aspect of the GSI is that it formulates the analysis in model grid space, which allows for more flexibility in the application of the background error covariances and makes it straightforward for a single analysis system to be used across a broad range of applications, including both global and regional modeling systems and domains. Due to the constraints of working with an operational system, the final GDAS package included many changes other than just a simple replacing of the SSI with the new GSI. The new GDAS package contained an upgrade to the Global Forecast System model, including a new vertical coordinate, as well as new features in the GSI that were never developed for the SSI. Some of these new features included changes to the observation selection, quality control, minimization algorithm, dynamic balance constraint, and assimilation of new observation types. The evaluation of the new system relative to the SSI-based system was performed for nearly an entire year of analyses and forecasts. The objective and subjective evaluations showed that the new package exhibited superior forecast performance relative to the old SSI-based system. The new system has been shown to improve forecast skill in the tropics and substantially reduce the short-term forecast error in the extratropics. This implementation has laid the groundwork for future scientific advancements in data assimilation at NCEP.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/X3P2GV93/Kleist et al_2009_Introduction of the GSI into the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System.pdf} +} + +@article{lazarus2010, + title = {Evaluation of {{Data Reduction Algorithms}} for {{Real-Time Analysis}}}, + author = {Lazarus, Steven M. and Splitt, Michael E. and Lueken, Michael D. and Ramachandran, Rahul and Li, Xiang and Movva, Sunil and Graves, Sara J. and Zavodsky, Bradley T.}, + date = {2010-06-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {25}, + number = {3}, + pages = {837--851}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0434, 0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/2010WAF2222296.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/25/3/2010waf2222296_1.xml}, + urldate = {2023-05-15}, + abstract = {Abstract Data reduction tools are developed and evaluated using a data analysis framework. Simple (nonadaptive) and intelligent (adaptive) thinning algorithms are applied to both synthetic and real data and the thinned datasets are ingested into an analysis system. The approach is motivated by the desire to better represent high-impact weather features (e.g., fronts, jets, cyclones, etc.) that are often poorly resolved in coarse-resolution forecast models and to efficiently generate a set of initial conditions that best describes the current state of the atmosphere. As a precursor to real-data applications, the algorithms are applied to one- and two-dimensional synthetic datasets. Information gleaned from the synthetic experiments is used to create a thinning algorithm that combines the best aspects of the intelligent methods (i.e., their ability to detect regions of interest) while reducing the impacts of spatial irregularities in the data. Both simple and intelligent thinning algorithms are then applied to Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature and moisture profiles. For a given retention rate, background, and observation error, the optimal 1D analyses (i.e., lowest MSE) tend to have observations that are near regions of large curvature and gradients. Observation error leads to the selection of spurious data in homogeneous regions of the intelligent algorithms. In the 2D experiments, simple thinning tends to perform better within the homogeneous data regions. Analyses produced using AIRS data demonstrate that observations selected via a combination of the simple and intelligent approaches reduce clustering, provide a more even distribution along the satellite swath edges, and, in general, have lower error and comparable computational requirements compared to standard operational thinning methodologies.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/RHGMLB5I/Lazarus et al_2010_Evaluation of Data Reduction Algorithms for Real-Time Analysis.pdf} +} + +@article{lee2019, + title = {{{ABI Water Vapor Radiance Assimilation}} in a {{Regional NWP Model}} by {{Accounting}} for the {{Surface Impact}}}, + author = {Lee, Jung-Rim and Li, Jun and Li, Zhenglong and Wang, Pei and Li, Jinlong}, + date = {2019}, + journaltitle = {Earth and Space Science}, + volume = {6}, + number = {9}, + pages = {1652--1666}, + issn = {2333-5084}, + doi = {10.1029/2019EA000711}, + url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EA000711}, + urldate = {2021-05-13}, + abstract = {There are a growing number of advanced imagers for geostationary meteorological satellites, which can provide water vapor radiance observations with high temporal and spatial resolutions. To assess the impact of those imagers, radiance assimilation experiments were conducted with the Advanced Baseline imager (ABI) on board the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16. The radiances from the three water vapor absorption bands of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 ABI were assimilated through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimilation system in a regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The forecast impacts for Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Harvey (2017) have been studied and analyzed in this work. Due to complicated surface situations (emissivity, terrain height, etc.) over land, the infrared (IR) radiance assimilation is still limited; thus, handling surface effects in radiance assimilation needs to be considered. By analyzing the Jacobian function of skin temperature in the ABI radiance assimilation process, it is shown that assimilating water vapor IR radiances over high elevation surfaces or in dry regions is problematic even where the bands are mostly sensitive to the upper level of the atmosphere such as Band 8 (6.19 μm). Additional quality control steps using skin temperature Jacobians to eliminate the contamination from the surface impact are developed and added for ABI radiance assimilation. The results show that ABI radiance assimilation with quality controls is able to improve tropical cyclone forecasts. The methodology used in this study can be applied to the assimilation of IR radiances from other geostationary satellites or polar-orbiting satellites.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/CPB5DF3B/Lee et al_2019_ABI Water Vapor Radiance Assimilation in a Regional NWP Model by Accounting for.pdf} +} + +@article{liang2019, + title = {Multi-{{Grid Nesting Ability}} to {{Represent Convections Across}} the {{Gray Zone}}}, + author = {Liang, Xin-Zhong and Li, Qi and Mei, Haixia and Zeng, Mingjian}, + date = {2019}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems}, + volume = {11}, + number = {12}, + pages = {4352--4376}, + issn = {1942-2466}, + doi = {10.1029/2019MS001741}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019MS001741}, + urldate = {2022-08-22}, + abstract = {This study investigated the multi-grid nesting ability of a limited area model to effectively represent convections across the gray zone, the resolution around 1–10 km where both cumulus parameterization and explicit convection are problematic. It evaluated the sensitivity of Meiyu rainfall forecasts in Jiangsu, China to model configurations of grid nesting and convection treatment. These configurations consisted of grid spacings from 30, 15, 9, 5, 3 to 1 km, single or double or triple nested grids, and the traditional Kain-Fritsch (KF) or scale-aware Grell-Freitas cumulus parameterization or the explicit convection in the outer domain [O]. In single nesting [O], coarse grids ({$>$}3–5 km) required parameterization to represent organized cumuli, while explicitly resolving convections in finer grids were necessary to improve forecasts. In double nesting [O] using cumulus parameterization at 30–9 km with the inner domain [I] using explicit convection at 1 km, the nesting ratio could be as large as 30 without significantly impacting [I] forecasts. This suggests a pragmatic approach to avoid the challenge in representing convections across the gray zone. Using Grell-Freitas may improve mean [O] rainfall distributions, but this was not true for [I] forecasts due to counter errors in space and time, which were larger than using KF and at coarser grids. Triple nesting with a middle 3- or 5-km grid was unnecessary and could even degrade [I] forecasts. Nesting [O] using KF to parameterize cumuli at 15 km with [I] explicitly resolving convections at 1 km achieved the best overall rainfall forecast in Jiangsu.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {cumulus parameterization,explicit convection,gray zone,grid nesting,precipitation forecast skill,scale-aware}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/GID8LID6/Liang et al_2019_Multi-Grid Nesting Ability to Represent Convections Across the Gray Zone.pdf} +} + +@article{lim2014, + title = {Assimilation of Clear Sky {{Atmospheric Infrared Sounder}} Radiances in Short-Term Regional Forecasts Using Community Models}, + author = {Lim, Agnes H. and Jung, James A. and Huang, Hung-Lung A. and Ackerman, Steven A. and Otkin, Jason A.}, + date = {2014-04}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Applied Remote Sensing}, + shortjournal = {JARS}, + volume = {8}, + number = {1}, + pages = {083655}, + publisher = {{SPIE}}, + issn = {1931-3195, 1931-3195}, + doi = {10.1117/1.JRS.8.083655}, + url = {https://www.spiedigitallibrary.org/journals/journal-of-applied-remote-sensing/volume-8/issue-1/083655/Assimilation-of-clear-sky-Atmospheric-Infrared-Sounder-radiances-in-short/10.1117/1.JRS.8.083655.full}, + urldate = {2022-08-24}, + abstract = {Regional assimilation experiments of clear-sky Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances were performed using the gridpoint statistical interpolation three-dimensional variational assimilation system coupled to the weather research and forecasting model. The data assimilation system and forecast model used in this study are separate community models; it cannot be assumed that the coupled systems work optimally. Tuning was performed on the data assimilation system and forecast model. Components tuned included the background error covariance matrix, the satellite radiance bias correction, the quality control procedures for AIRS radiances, the forecast model resolution, and the infrared channel selection. Assimilation metrics and diagnostics from the assimilation system were used to identify problems when combining separate systems. Forecasts initiated from analyses after assimilation were verified with model analyses, rawinsondes, nonassimilated satellite radiances, and 24 h–accumulated precipitation. Assimilation of clear sky AIRS radiances showed the largest improvement in temperature and radiance brightness temperature bias when compared with rawinsondes and satellite observations, respectively. Precipitation skill scores displayed minor changes with AIRS radiance assimilation. The 00 and 12 coordinated universal time (UTC) forecasts were typically of better quality than the 06 and 18 UTC forecasts, possibly due to the amount of AIRS data available for each assimilation cycle.} +} + +@article{lin2017, + title = {Radiance {{Preprocessing}} for {{Assimilation}} in the {{Hourly Updating Rapid Refresh Mesoscale Model}}: {{A Study Using AIRS Data}}}, + shorttitle = {Radiance {{Preprocessing}} for {{Assimilation}} in the {{Hourly Updating Rapid Refresh Mesoscale Model}}}, + author = {Lin, Haidao and Weygandt, Stephen S. and Lim, Agnes H. N. and Hu, Ming and Brown, John M. and Benjamin, Stanley G.}, + date = {2017-10-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + shortjournal = {Wea. Forecasting}, + volume = {32}, + number = {5}, + pages = {1781--1800}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-17-0028.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/32/5/1781/41189/Radiance-Preprocessing-for-Assimilation-in-the}, + urldate = {2020-06-19}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Lin/lin_2017_radiance_preprocessing_for_assimilation_in_the_hourly_updating_rapid_refresh.pdf} +} + +@article{lin2017a, + title = {Satellite {{Radiance Data Assimilation}} within the {{Hourly Updated Rapid Refresh}}}, + author = {Lin, Haidao and Weygandt, Stephen S. and Benjamin, Stanley G. and Hu, Ming}, + date = {2017-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + shortjournal = {Wea. Forecasting}, + volume = {32}, + number = {4}, + pages = {1273--1287}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-16-0215.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/waf/article/32/4/1273/41099/Satellite-Radiance-Data-Assimilation-within-the}, + urldate = {2020-06-18}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Lin/lin_2017_satellite_radiance_data_assimilation_within_the_hourly_updated_rapid_refresh.pdf} +} + +@inproceedings{liu2008, + title = {Community {{Radiative Transfer Model}} for {{Scattering Transfer}} and {{Applications}}}, + booktitle = {{{IGARSS}} 2008 - 2008 {{IEEE International Geoscience}} and {{Remote Sensing Symposium}}}, + author = {Liu, Quanhua and Weng, Fuzhong and Han, Yong and family=Delst, given=Paul, prefix=van, useprefix=true}, + date = {2008-07}, + volume = {4}, + pages = {IV - 1193-IV - 1196}, + issn = {2153-7003}, + doi = {10.1109/IGARSS.2008.4779942}, + abstract = {The community radiative transfer model (CRTM), developed at U. S. Joint center for satellite data assimilation (JCSDA), has been used for infrared and microwave satellite radiance simulations and their derivatives to the surface/atmospheric parameters in the physical retrieval, data assimilation, and many others. CRTM has been become a key component in U. S. data assimilation for weather forecasting at the national center for environmental prediction (NCEP). This paper presents a new extension of the CRTM to ultraviolet (UV) and visible radiation for ozone and aerosol applications. This paper also demonstrates scattering effects on microwave radiative transfer.}, + eventtitle = {{{IGARSS}} 2008 - 2008 {{IEEE International Geoscience}} and {{Remote Sensing Symposium}}}, + keywords = {Aerosols,Atmospheric modeling,Community Radiative Transfer Model,Data assimilation,Equations,Light scattering,Microwave theory and techniques,Optical polarization,Satellites,Scattering,Solar radiation,Springs} +} + +@unpublished{liu2019, + title = {Evaluation of {{GOES-16 Clear-sky Radiance Data}} and {{Preliminary Assimilation Results}} at {{NCEP}}}, + author = {Liu, Haixia and Collard, Andrew and Derber, John and Nebuda, Sharon and Jung, James A.}, + date = {2019}, + url = {http://bluebook.meteoinfo.ru/uploads/2019/docs/01_Liu_Haixia_CSRassimilation.pdf}, + urldate = {2021-04-20}, + langid = {english}, + pagetotal = {2}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/668XDRV8/01_Liu_Haixia_CSRassimilation.pdf} +} + +@article{lorenz1965, + title = {A Study of the Predictability of a 28-Variable Atmospheric Model}, + author = {Lorenz, Edward N.}, + date = {1965}, + journaltitle = {Tellus}, + volume = {17}, + number = {3}, + pages = {321--333}, + issn = {2153-3490}, + doi = {10.1111/j.2153-3490.1965.tb01424.x}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1965.tb01424.x}, + urldate = {2023-05-24}, + abstract = {A 28-variable model of the atmosphere is constructed by expanding the equations of a two-level geostrophic model in truncated double-Fourier series. The model includes the nonlinear interactions among disturbances of three different wave lengths. Nonperiodic time-dependent solutions are determined by numerical integration. By comparing separate solutions with slightly different initial conditions, the growth rate of small initial errors is studied. The time required for errors comparable to observational errors in the atmosphere to grow to intolerable errors is strongly dependent upon the current circulation pattern, and varies from a few days to a few weeks. Some statistical predictability of certain quantities seems to be present even after errors in the complete circulation pattern are no longer small. The feasibility of performing similar studies with much larger atmospheric models is considered.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ZX88JTN7/Lorenz_1965_A study of the predictability of a 28-variable atmospheric model.pdf} +} + +@article{maejima2019, + title = {Impact of {{Dense}} and {{Frequent Surface Observations}} on 1-{{Minute-Update Severe Rainstorm Prediction}}: {{A Simulation Study}}}, + shorttitle = {Impact of {{Dense}} and {{Frequent Surface Observations}} on 1-{{Minute-Update Severe Rainstorm Prediction}}}, + author = {Maejima, Yasumitsu and Miyoshi, Takemasa and Kunii, Masaru and Seko, Hiromu and Sato, Kae}, + date = {2019}, + journaltitle = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II}, + volume = {97}, + number = {1}, + pages = {253--273}, + doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2019-014}, + abstract = {This study aims to investigate the potential impact of surface observations with a high spatial and temporal density on a local heavy rainstorm prediction. A series of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter with the Japan Meteorological Agency non-hydrostatic model at 1-km resolution and with 1-minute update cycles. For the nature run of the OSSEs, a 100-m resolution simulation is performed for the heavy rainstorm case that caused five fatalities in Kobe, Japan on July 28, 2008. Synthetic radar observation data, both reflectivity and Doppler velocity, are generated at 1-km resolution every minute from the 100-m resolution nature run within a 60-km range, simulating the phased array weather radar (PAWR) at Osaka University. The control experiment assimilates only the radar data, and two sensitivity experiments are performed to investigate the impact of additional surface observations obtained every minute at 8 and 167 stations in Kobe. The results show that the dense and frequent surface observations have a significant positive impact on the analyses and forecasts of the local heavy rainstorm, although the number of assimilated observations is three orders of magnitude less than the PAWR data. Equivalent potential temperature and convergence at the low levels are improved, contributing to intensified convective cells and local heavy rainfalls.}, + keywords = {local ensemble transform Kalman filter,rainfall prediction,surface data assimilation}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/UARWIH3E/Maejima et al_2019_Impact of Dense and Frequent Surface Observations on 1-Minute-Update Severe.pdf} +} + +@article{maldonado2020, + title = {Parameter {{Sensitivity}} of the {{WRF}}–{{LETKF System}} for {{Assimilation}} of {{Radar Observations}}: {{Imperfect-Model Observing System Simulation Experiments}}}, + shorttitle = {Parameter {{Sensitivity}} of the {{WRF}}–{{LETKF System}} for {{Assimilation}} of {{Radar Observations}}}, + author = {Maldonado, Paula and Ruiz, Juan and Saulo, Celeste}, + date = {2020-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {35}, + number = {4}, + pages = {1345--1362}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0434, 0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-19-0161.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/4/wafD190161.xml}, + urldate = {2022-07-12}, + abstract = {Abstract Specification of suitable initial conditions to accurately forecast high-impact weather events associated with intense thunderstorms still poses a significant challenge for convective-scale forecasting. Radar data assimilation has been showing encouraging results to produce an accurate estimate of the state of the atmosphere at the mesoscale, as it combines high-spatiotemporal-resolution observations with convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models. However, many open questions remain regarding the configuration of state-of-the-art data assimilation systems at the mesoscale and their potential impact upon short-range weather forecasts. In this work, several observing system simulation experiments of a mesoscale convective system were performed to assess the sensitivity of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter to both relaxation-to-prior spread (RTPS) inflation and horizontal localization of the error covariance matrix. Realistic large-scale forcing and model errors have been taken into account in the simulation of reflectivity and Doppler velocity observations. Overall, the most accurate analyses in terms of RMSE were produced with a relatively small horizontal localization cutoff radius (\textasciitilde 3.6–7.3 km) and large RTPS inflation parameter (\textasciitilde 0.9–0.95). Additionally, the impact of horizontal localization on short-range ensemble forecast was larger compared to inflation, almost doubling the lead times up to which the effect of using a more accurate state to initialize the forecast persisted.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/A2AZWDJI/Maldonado et al_2020_Parameter Sensitivity of the WRF–LETKF System for Assimilation of Radar.pdf} +} + +@article{maldonado2021, + title = {Sensitivity to {{Initial}} and {{Boundary Perturbations}} in {{Convective-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation}}: {{Imperfect-Model OSSEs}}}, + shorttitle = {Sensitivity to {{Initial}} and {{Boundary Perturbations}} in {{Convective-Scale Ensemble-Based Data Assimilation}}}, + author = {Maldonado, Paula and Ruiz, Juan and Saulo, Celeste}, + date = {2021}, + journaltitle = {SOLA}, + shortjournal = {SOLA}, + volume = {17}, + number = {0}, + pages = {96--102}, + issn = {1349-6476}, + doi = {10.2151/sola.2021-015}, + url = {https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/17/0/17_2021-015/_article}, + urldate = {2021-06-24}, + abstract = {This study investigates the impact of applying different types of initial and boundary perturbations for convective-scale ensemble data assimilation systems. Several observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were performed with a 2-km horizontal resolution, considering a realistic environment, taking model error into account, and combining different perturbations’ types with warm/cold start initialization. Initial perturbations produce a longlasting impact on the analysis’s quality, particularly for variables not directly linked to radar observations. Warm-started experiments provide the most accurate analysis and forecasts and a more consistent ensemble spread across the different spatial scales. Random small-scale perturbations exhibit similar results, although a longer convergence time is required to up-and-downscale the initial perturbations to obtain a similar error reduction. Adding random large-scale perturbations reduce the error in the first assimil­ ation cycles but produce a slightly detrimental effect afterward.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/23UW93FF/Maldonado et al. - 2021 - Sensitivity to Initial and Boundary Perturbations .pdf} +} + +@article{mallick2020, + title = {Assimilation of {{GOES-16}} Satellite Derived Winds into the Warn-on-Forecast System}, + author = {Mallick, Swapan and Jones, Thomas A.}, + date = {2020-11-15}, + journaltitle = {Atmospheric Research}, + shortjournal = {Atmospheric Research}, + volume = {245}, + pages = {105131}, + issn = {0169-8095}, + doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105131}, + url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016980952031067X}, + urldate = {2022-04-10}, + abstract = {The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-R series of geostationary satellites provides an opportunity to generate high-resolution satellite derived wind vectors over continental United States not possible from previous satellites. This study investigates the quality and the impact of assimilating satellite-derived winds (or Atmospheric Motion Vectors, AMVs) from the GOES-16 geostationary satellite on high-impact weather forecasts using the NOAA's ensemble based Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS). The WoFS runs at convection allowing scales (\textasciitilde 3~km) with a 15-min cycling frequency assimilating all available observations including conventional, radar and GOES-16 cloud water path retrievals over a limited area domain. Four severe weather events during 2018 are considered in this study to assess the potential impacts of assimilating GOES-16 AMVs into the WoFS. A total of eight experiments performed, four that assimilate AMV data and the remaining four do not with all including conventional, radar, and other satellite data. This research represents the first step to assimilated high-resolution satellite derived winds into the convective-allowing ensemble data assimilation system. The results show that the overall impact of assimilation of AMVs is small, but positive for probabilistic forecasts of reflectivity objects.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {Atmospheric Motion Vectors,Data Assimilation,GOES-R,Numerical Weather Prediction,Warn-on-Forecast} +} + +@incollection{markowski2010, + title = {Organization of {{Isolated Convection}}}, + booktitle = {Mesoscale {{Meteorology}} in {{Midlatitudes}}}, + author = {Markowski, Paul and Richardson, Yvette}, + date = {2010}, + pages = {201--244}, + publisher = {{John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd}}, + doi = {10.1002/9780470682104.ch8}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/9780470682104.ch8}, + urldate = {2021-07-19}, + abstract = {This chapter contains sections titled: Role of vertical wind shear Single-cell convection Multicellular convection Supercellular convection}, + isbn = {978-0-470-68210-4}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {convective storms,linear theory of midlevel mesocyclogenesis,multicellular convection,organization of isolated convection,organized in a variety of ways,role of vertical wind shear,single-cell convection,spectrum of storm types - as a function of vertical wind shear,supercellular convection,the most common form of convection in midlatitudes} +} + +@article{matsudo2015, + title = {Verification of {{WRF-ARW}} Convective-Resolving Forecasts over {{Southeastern South America}}}, + author = {Matsudo, C. and García Skabar, Yanina and Ruiz, Juan and Vidal, Luciano and Salio, Paola}, + date = {2015-07-01}, + journaltitle = {Mausam}, + shortjournal = {Mausam}, + volume = {66}, + pages = {445--456}, + abstract = {During November-December 2012, high-resolution (4 km-38 vertical levels), convection-allowing 48 hours WRF-ARW forecasts were produced at the National Weather Service of Argentina. The aim of this paper is to evaluate hourly quantitative precipitation forecasts to assess the model performance on representing its location, intensity, spatial variability and diurnal cycle. The focus is on the central-east region of Argentina and south of Brazil. The study is based on a combination of visual comparison of forecasted and estimates accumulated precipitation fields and objective scores calculated employing 8-km resolution CMORPH (CPC MORPHing technique) satellite rainfall estimations. Additional insight is gained by examining an organized convective event occurred during 6th and 7th December, 2012. As a complement, radar data is considered to evaluate convective features using simulated model reflectivity. Results show that WHIP model forecast captures quite well the position and timing of the major convective events, even though the magnitude of events was underestimated. Total amounts averaged over the verification domain are underestimated as well as the areal coverage for small thresholds. In general, results suggest that convection-allowing WRF-ARW model has the potential to improve short range forecasts over the region although it should be evaluated over a longer period of time.}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/2AKX9SDX/Matsudo et al_2015_Verification of WRF-ARW convective-resolving forecasts over Southeastern South.pdf} +} + +@article{matsudo2021, + title = {Verificación de los pronósticos del esquema determinístico del modelo WRF para el año 2020}, + author = {Matsudo, Cynthia and Salles, María Alejandra and García Skabar, Yanina}, + date = {2021-07}, + publisher = {{Servicio Meteorológico Nacional. Dirección de Productos de Modelación Ambiental y Sensores Remotos. Dirección Nacional de Ciencia e Innovación en Productos y Servicios}}, + url = {http://repositorio.smn.gob.ar/handle/20.500.12160/1595}, + urldate = {2022-07-26}, + abstract = {Esta nota técnica se desarrolla en el marco del Plan de Verificación Transversal de pronóstico del SMN. Aquí se presentan los resultados de la verificación de los pronósticos operativos del modelo WRF del esquema determinístico correspondientes al año 2020. Las variables que se verifican son las siguientes: temperatura a 2m, temperatura de rocío a 2m, temperatura mínima y máxima diaria, precipitación acumulada en 24 horas y magnitud del viento a 10m. Las observaciones para la verificación provienen de la red de estaciones de superficie del SMN. Se comparan los resultados con los correspondientes al modelo GFS. En líneas generales todas las variables pronosticadas muestran un desempeño similar o superior a los pronósticos obtenidos con GFS. La calibración de las temperaturas demuestra una mejora respecto de las mismas sin calibrar. Asimismo se puede ver que la calidad del pronóstico de la temperatura máxima es mejor que la de la temperatura mínima. Por otro lado, esta verificación contribuyó a detectar errores importantes en el pronóstico de la temperatura de rocío así como los de la magnitud del viento.}, + langid = {spanish}, + annotation = {Accepted: 2021-07-05T19:26:04Z}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/T8ES8VZS/Matsudo et al_2021_Verificación de los pronósticos del esquema determinístico del modelo WRF para.pdf} +} + +@article{miyoshi2012a, + title = {Using {{AIRS}} Retrievals in the {{WRF-LETKF}} System to Improve Regional Numerical Weather Prediction}, + author = {Miyoshi, Takemasa and Kunii, Masaru}, + date = {2012-12-01}, + journaltitle = {Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography}, + volume = {64}, + number = {1}, + pages = {18408}, + publisher = {{Taylor \& Francis}}, + issn = {null}, + doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18408}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18408}, + urldate = {2020-10-20}, + abstract = {In addition to conventional observations, atmospheric temperature and humidity profile data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Version 5 retrieval products are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, using the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). Although a naive assimilation of all available quality-controlled AIRS retrieval data yields an inferior analysis, the additional enhancements of adaptive inflation and horizontal data thinning result in a general improvement of numerical weather prediction skill due to AIRS data. In particular, the adaptive inflation method is enhanced so that it no longer assumes temporal homogeneity of the observing network and allows for a better treatment of the temporally inhomogeneous AIRS data. Results indicate that the improvements due to AIRS data are more significant in longer-lead forecasts. Forecasts of Typhoons Sinlaku and Jangmi in September 2008 show improvements due to AIRS data.}, + keywords = {data assimilation,ensemble Kalman filter,numerical weather prediction,satellite sounding data}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Miyoshi/miyoshi_2012_using_airs_retrievals_in_the_wrf-letkf_system_to_improve_regional_numerical.pdf} +} + +@article{mlawer1997, + title = {Radiative Transfer for Inhomogeneous Atmospheres: {{RRTM}}, a Validated Correlated-k Model for the Longwave}, + shorttitle = {Radiative Transfer for Inhomogeneous Atmospheres}, + author = {Mlawer, Eli J. and Taubman, Steven J. and Brown, Patrick D. and Iacono, Michael J. and Clough, Shepard A.}, + date = {1997}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, + volume = {102}, + number = {D14}, + pages = {16663--16682}, + issn = {2156-2202}, + doi = {10.1029/97JD00237}, + url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/97JD00237}, + urldate = {2021-06-24}, + abstract = {A rapid and accurate radiative transfer model (RRTM) for climate applications has been developed and the results extensively evaluated. The current version of RRTM calculates fluxes and cooling rates for the longwave spectral region (10–3000 cm−1) for an arbitrary clear atmosphere. The molecular species treated in the model are water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide, and the common halocarbons. The radiative transfer in RRTM is performed using the correlated-k method: the k distributions are attained directly from the LBLRTM line-by-line model, which connects the absorption coefficients used by RRTM to high-resolution radiance validations done with observations. Refined methods have been developed for treating bands containing gases with overlapping absorption, for the determination of values of the Planck function appropriate for use in the correlated-k approach, and for the inclusion of minor absorbing species in a band. The flux and cooling rate results of RRTM are linked to measurement through the use of LBLRTM, which has been substantially validated with observations. Validations of RRTM using LBLRTM have been performed for the midlatitude summer, tropical, midlatitude winter, subarctic winter, and four atmospheres from the Spectral Radiance Experiment campaign. On the basis of these validations the longwave accuracy of RRTM for any atmosphere is as follows: 0.6 W m−2 (relative to LBLRTM) for net flux in each band at all altitudes, with a total (10–3000 cm−1) error of less than 1.0 W m−2 at any altitude; 0.07 K d−1 for total cooling rate error in the troposphere and lower stratosphere, and 0.75 K d−1 in the upper stratosphere and above. Other comparisons have been performed on RRTM using LBLRTM to gauge its sensitivity to changes in the abundance of specific species, including the halocarbons and carbon dioxide. The radiative forcing due to doubling the concentration of carbon dioxide is attained with an accuracy of 0.24 W m−2, an error of less than 5\%. The speed of execution of RRTM compares favorably with that of other rapid radiation models, indicating that the model is suitable for use in general circulation models.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ED4X4RVI/Mlawer et al_1997_Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres.pdf} +} + +@article{nakanishi2009, + title = {Development of an {{Improved Turbulence Closure Model}} for the {{Atmospheric Boundary Layer}}}, + author = {Nakanishi, Mikio and Niino, Hiroshi}, + date = {2009}, + journaltitle = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan}, + shortjournal = {JMSJ}, + volume = {87}, + number = {5}, + pages = {895--912}, + issn = {0026-1165}, + doi = {10.2151/jmsj.87.895}, + url = {http://joi.jlc.jst.go.jp/JST.JSTAGE/jmsj/87.895?from=CrossRef}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {An improved Mellor–Yamada (MY) turbulence closure model (MYNN model: Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino model) that we have developed is summarized and its performance is demonstrated against a large-eddy simulation (LES) of a convective boundary layer. Unlike the original MY model, the MYNN model considers e¤ects of buoyancy on pressure covariances and e¤ects of stability on the turbulent length scale, with model constants determined from a LES database. One-dimensional simulations of Day 33 of the Wangara field experiment, which was conducted in a flat area of southeastern Australia in 1967, are made by the MY and MYNN models and the results are compared with horizontal-average statistics obtained from a threedimensional LES. The MYNN model improves several weak points of the MY model such as an insu‰cient growth of the convective boundary layer, and underestimates of the turbulent kinetic energy and the turbulent length scale; it reproduces fairly well the results of the LES including the vertical distributions of the mean and turbulent quantities. The improved performance of the MYNN model relies mainly on the new formulation of the turbulent length scale that realistically increases with decreasing stability, and partly on the parameterization of the pressure covariances and the expression for stability functions for third-order turbulent fluxes.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/MKCKAPSC/Nakanishi and Niino - 2009 - Development of an Improved Turbulence Closure Mode.pdf} +} + +@article{necker2020, + title = {A Convective‐scale 1,000‐member Ensemble Simulation and Potential Applications}, + author = {Necker, Tobias and Geiss, Stefan and Weissmann, Martin and Ruiz, Juan and Miyoshi, Takemasa and Lien, Guo‐Yuan}, + date = {2020-04}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + shortjournal = {Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc}, + volume = {146}, + number = {728}, + pages = {1423--1442}, + issn = {0035-9009, 1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.3744}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.3744}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/7KKXQVDK/Necker et al. - 2020 - A convective‐scale 1,000‐member ensemble simulatio.pdf} +} + +@article{nesbitt2021, + title = {A Storm Safari in {{Subtropical South America}}: Proyecto {{RELAMPAGO}}}, + shorttitle = {A Storm Safari in {{Subtropical South America}}}, + author = {Nesbitt, Stephen W. and Salio, Paola V. and Ávila, Eldo and Bitzer, Phillip and Carey, Lawrence and Chandrasekar, V. and Deierling, Wiebke and Dominguez, Francina and Dillon, Maria Eugenia and Garcia, C. Marcelo and Gochis, David and Goodman, Steven and Hence, Deanna A. and Kosiba, Karen A. and Kumjian, Matthew R. and Lang, Timothy and Luna, Lorena Medina and Marquis, James and Marshall, Robert and McMurdie, Lynn A. and Nascimento, Ernani Lima and Rasmussen, Kristen L. and Roberts, Rita and Rowe, Angela K. and Ruiz, Juan José and Sabbas, Eliah F. M. T. São and Saulo, A. Celeste and Schumacher, Russ S. and Skabar, Yanina Garcia and Machado, Luiz Augusto Toledo and Trapp, Robert J. and Varble, Adam and Wilson, James and Wurman, Joshua and Zipser, Edward J. and Arias, Ivan and Bechis, Hernán and Grover, Maxwell A.}, + date = {2021-04-19}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {-1}, + pages = {1--64}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0029.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-20-0029.1/BAMS-D-20-0029.1.xml}, + urldate = {2021-05-12}, + abstract = {{$<$}section class="abstract"{$><$}h2 class="abstractTitle text-title my-1" id="d125981809e494"{$>$}Abstract{$<$}/h2{$><$}p{$>$}This article provides an overview of the experimental design, execution, education and public outreach, data collection, and initial scientific results from the Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations (RELAMPAGO) field campaign. RELAMPAGO was a major field campaign conducted in Córdoba and Mendoza provinces in Argentina, and western Rio Grande do Sul State in Brazil in 2018-2019 that involved more than 200 scientists and students from the US, Argentina, and Brazil. This campaign was motivated by the physical processes and societal impacts of deep convection that frequently initiates in this region, often along the complex terrain of the Sierras de Córdoba and Andes, and often grows rapidly upscale into dangerous storms that impact society. Observed storms during the experiment produced copious hail, intense flash flooding, extreme lightning flash rates and other unusual lightning phenomena, but few tornadoes. The 5 distinct scientific foci of RELAMPAGO: convection initiation, severe weather, upscale growth, hydrometeorology, and lightning and electrification are described, as are the deployment strategies to observe physical processes relevant to these foci. The campaign’s international cooperation, forecasting efforts, and mission planning strategies enabled a successful data collection effort. In addition, the legacy of RELAMPAGO in South America, including extensive multi-national education, public outreach, and social media data-gathering associated with the campaign, is summarized.{$<$}/p{$><$}/section{$>$}}, + issue = {aop}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/R9GX7TSP/Nesbitt et al_2021_A storm safari in Subtropical South America.pdf} +} + +@article{ohring1979, + title = {Impact of {{Satellite Temperature Sounding Data}} on {{Weather Forecasts}}}, + author = {Ohring, George}, + date = {1979-10-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {60}, + number = {10}, + pages = {1142--1147}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0477(1979)060<1142:IOSTSD>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/60/10/1520-0477_1979_060_1142_iostsd_2_0_co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {The concept of radiometric sounding of atmospheric temperature profiles from satellites was first demonstrated with data gathered by infrared spectrometers on the Nimbus-3 satellite in 1969. Operational satellite sounding over oceanic areas was introduced by the VTPR (Vertical Temperature Profile Radiometer) instrument on the NOAA 2 satellite in 1972. Early evaluations of these new observational data centered on their accuracy compared to data obtained from the conventional radiosonde system. More recent evaluations have focused on the impact of the satellite temperature soundings on numerical weather forecasts. In this paper, we review the results of such impact tests in several countries. On the average, the inclusion of satellite sounding data leads to a small improvement in the numerical forecasts.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/EH5SNPUZ/Ohring_1979_Impact of Satellite Temperature Sounding Data on Weather Forecasts.pdf} +} + +@article{orlanski1975, + title = {A {{Rational Subdivision}} of {{Scales}} for {{Atmospheric Processes}}}, + author = {Orlanski, Isidoro}, + date = {1975}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {56}, + number = {5}, + eprint = {26216020}, + eprinttype = {jstor}, + pages = {527--530}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0003-0007}, + url = {https://www.jstor.org/stable/26216020}, + urldate = {2023-01-26}, + abstract = {Some atmospheric scale definitions are reviewed and a proposed new subdivision of scales that covers the entire spectrum is described.} +} + +@article{otsuka2015, + title = {Assimilation {{Experiments}} of {{MTSAT Rapid Scan Atmospheric Motion Vectors}} on a {{Heavy Rainfall Event}}}, + author = {Otsuka, Michiko and Kunii, Masaru and Seko, Hiromu and Shimoji, Kazuki and Hayashi, Masahiro and Yamashita, Koji}, + date = {2015}, + journaltitle = {Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II}, + volume = {93}, + number = {4}, + pages = {459--475}, + doi = {10.2151/jmsj.2015-030}, + abstract = {Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) derived from 5-min rapid scan (RS) imagery of the Multi-functional Transport Satellite are expected to capture small-scale distributions of airflows better than typical AMVs derived from 30-min imagery because the observation interval of RS-AMV is shorter. The impact of these high-frequency data on the numerical forecasting of a heavy rainfall near a stationary front was investigated by conducting data assimilation experiments. As a part of preparation for the assimilation, RS-AMVs were compared with the first-guess field obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) nonhydrostatic model (NHM). The comparison result indicated that the RS-AMVs were of good quality and could be used in the JMA’s operational NHM with 4D variational data assimilation (JNoVA). Assimilation experiments investigating a heavy rainfall event were conducted using different lengths of assimilation time slot and time intervals of spatial thinning for the assimilation of the RS-AMV data. The assimilation of RS-AMVs caused the initial wind fields to enhance the upper-level divergence and low-level convergence around the front. Consequently, the forecast of the rainfall amount was increased near the front, and the verification scores were slightly improved over the control experiment in the early forecast hours.}, + keywords = {atmospheric motion vector (AMV),data assimilation,rapid scan data,satellite}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/X9CPP65N/Otsuka et al_2015_Assimilation Experiments of MTSAT Rapid Scan Atmospheric Motion Vectors on a.pdf} +} + +@article{ouaraini2015, + title = {Sensitivity of Regional Ensemble Data Assimilation Spread to Perturbations of Lateral Boundary Conditions}, + author = {Ouaraini, Rachida El and Berre, Loïk and Fischer, Claude and Sayouty, El Hassan}, + date = {2015-12-01}, + journaltitle = {Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography}, + volume = {67}, + number = {1}, + pages = {28502}, + publisher = {{Taylor \& Francis}}, + issn = {null}, + doi = {10.3402/tellusa.v67.28502}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.28502}, + urldate = {2021-06-24}, + abstract = {The implementation of a regional ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system requires the specification of appropriate perturbations of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), in order to simulate associated errors. The sensitivity of analysis and 6-h forecast ensemble spread to these perturbations is studied here formally and experimentally by comparing three different LBC configurations for the ensemble data assimilation system of the ALADIN-France limited-area model (LAM). While perturbed initial LBCs are provided by the perturbed LAM analyses in each ensemble, the three ensemble configurations differ with respect to LBCs used at 3- and 6-h forecast ranges, which respectively correspond to: (1) perturbed LBCs provided by the operational global ensemble data assimilation system (GLBC), which is considered as a reference configuration; (2) unperturbed LBCs (ULBC) obtained from the global deterministic model; (3) perturbed LBCs obtained by adding random draws of an error covariance model (PLBC) to the global deterministic system. A formal analysis of error and perturbation equations is first carried out, in order to provide an insight of the relative effects of observation perturbations and of LBC perturbations at different ranges, in the various ensemble configurations. Horizontal variations of time-averaged ensemble spread are then examined for 6-h forecasts. Despite the use of perturbed initial LBCs, the regional ensemble ULBC is underdispersive not only near the lateral boundaries, but also in approximately one-third of the inner area, due to advection during the data assimilation cycle. This artefact is avoided in PLBC through the additional use of non-zero LBC perturbations at 3- and 6-h ranges, and the sensitivity to the amplitude scaling of the covariance model is illustrated for this configuration. Some aspects of the temporal variation of ensemble spread and associated sensitivities to LBC perturbations are also studied. These results confirm the importance of LBC perturbations for regional ensemble data assimilation. They also indicate that perturbing initial LBC is not sufficient to obtain realistic ensemble spread, whereas this can be achieved approximately by using random covariance draws for simulating LBC errors during the forecast and associated data assimilation cycling.}, + keywords = {data assimilation,ensemble spread,lateral boundary conditions,regional ensemble}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/3LY464P7/Ouaraini et al_2015_Sensitivity of regional ensemble data assimilation spread to perturbations of.pdf} +} + +@article{patil2001, + title = {Local {{Low Dimensionality}} of {{Atmospheric Dynamics}}}, + author = {Patil, D. J. and Hunt, Brian R. and Kalnay, Eugenia and Yorke, James A. and Ott, Edward}, + date = {2001-06-25}, + journaltitle = {Physical Review Letters}, + shortjournal = {Phys. Rev. Lett.}, + volume = {86}, + number = {26}, + pages = {5878--5881}, + publisher = {{American Physical Society}}, + doi = {10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.5878}, + url = {https://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.5878}, + urldate = {2023-01-18}, + abstract = {A statistic, the BV (bred vector) dimension, is introduced to measure the effective local finite-time dimensionality of a spatiotemporally chaotic system. It is shown that the Earth’s atmosphere often has low BV dimension, and the implications for improving weather forecasting are discussed.}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/XAJGID5H/Patil et al_2001_Local Low Dimensionality of Atmospheric Dynamics.pdf} +} + +@article{pondeca2011, + title = {The {{Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis}} at {{NOAA}}’s {{National Centers}} for {{Environmental Prediction}}: {{Current Status}} and {{Development}}}, + shorttitle = {The {{Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis}} at {{NOAA}}’s {{National Centers}} for {{Environmental Prediction}}}, + author = {Pondeca, Manuel S. F. V. De and Manikin, Geoffrey S. and DiMego, Geoff and Benjamin, Stanley G. and Parrish, David F. and Purser, R. James and Wu, Wan-Shu and Horel, John D. and Myrick, David T. and Lin, Ying and Aune, Robert M. and Keyser, Dennis and Colman, Brad and Mann, Greg and Vavra, Jamie}, + date = {2011-10-01}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {26}, + number = {5}, + pages = {593--612}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0434, 0882-8156}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-10-05037.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/26/5/waf-d-10-05037_1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-10-19}, + abstract = {Abstract In 2006, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) implemented the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) in collaboration with the Earth System Research Laboratory and the National Environmental, Satellite, and Data Information Service (NESDIS). In this work, a description of the RTMA applied to the 5-km resolution conterminous U.S. grid of the National Digital Forecast Database is given. Its two-dimensional variational data assimilation (2DVAR) component used to analyze near-surface observations is described in detail, and a brief discussion of the remapping of the NCEP stage II quantitative precipitation amount and NESDIS Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sounder effective cloud amount to the 5-km grid is offered. Terrain-following background error covariances are used with the 2DVAR approach, which produces gridded fields of 2-m temperature, 2-m specific humidity, 2-m dewpoint, 10-m U and V wind components, and surface pressure. The estimate of the analysis uncertainty via the Lanczos method is briefly described. The strength of the 2DVAR is illustrated by (i) its ability to analyze a June 2007 cold temperature pool over the Washington, D.C., area; (ii) its fairly good analysis of a December 2008 mid-Atlantic region high-wind event that started from a very weak first guess; and (iii) its successful recovery of the finescale moisture features in a January 2010 case study over southern California. According to a cross-validation analysis for a 15-day period during November 2009, root-mean-square error improvements over the first guess range from 16\% for wind speed to 45\% for specific humidity.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/UU7XBUE2/Pondeca et al_2011_The Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental.pdf} +} + +@article{purser2003, + title = {Numerical {{Aspects}} of the {{Application}} of {{Recursive Filters}} to {{Variational Statistical Analysis}}. {{Part I}}: {{Spatially Homogeneous}} and {{Isotropic Gaussian Covariances}}}, + shorttitle = {Numerical {{Aspects}} of the {{Application}} of {{Recursive Filters}} to {{Variational Statistical Analysis}}. {{Part I}}}, + author = {Purser, R. James and Wu, Wan-Shu and Parrish, David F. and Roberts, Nigel M.}, + date = {2003-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {131}, + number = {8}, + pages = {1524--1535}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175//1520-0493(2003)131<1524:NAOTAO>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/131/8/_1520-0493_2003_131_1524_naotao_2.0.co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2022-10-19}, + abstract = {Abstract The construction and application of efficient numerical recursive filters for the task of convolving a spatial distribution of “forcing” terms with a quasi-Gaussian self-adjoint smoothing kernel in two or three dimensions are described. In the context of variational analysis, this smoothing operation may be interpreted as the convolution of a covariance function of background error with the given forcing terms, which constitutes one of the most computationally intensive components of the iterative solution of a variational analysis problem. Among the technical aspects of the recursive filters, the problems of achieving acceptable approximations to horizontal isotropy and the implementation of both periodic and nonperiodic boundary conditions that avoid the appearance of spurious numerical artifacts are treated herein. A multigrid approach that helps to minimize numerical noise at filtering scales greatly in excess of the grid step is also discussed. It is emphasized that the methods are not inherently limited to the construction of purely Gaussian shapes, although the detailed elaboration of methods by which a more general set of possible covariance profiles may be synthesized is deferred to the companion paper ().}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/YHCISXUI/Purser et al_2003_Numerical Aspects of the Application of Recursive Filters to Variational.pdf} +} + +@article{purser2003a, + title = {Numerical {{Aspects}} of the {{Application}} of {{Recursive Filters}} to {{Variational Statistical Analysis}}. {{Part II}}: {{Spatially Inhomogeneous}} and {{Anisotropic General Covariances}}}, + shorttitle = {Numerical {{Aspects}} of the {{Application}} of {{Recursive Filters}} to {{Variational Statistical Analysis}}. {{Part II}}}, + author = {Purser, R. James and Wu, Wan-Shu and Parrish, David F. and Roberts, Nigel M.}, + date = {2003-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {131}, + number = {8}, + pages = {1536--1548}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175//2543.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/131/8/_2543.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-10-19}, + abstract = {Abstract In this second part of a two-part study of recursive filter techniques applied to the synthesis of covariances in a variational analysis, methods by which non-Gaussian shapes and spatial inhomogeneities and anisotropies for the covariances may be introduced in a well-controlled way are examined. These methods permit an analysis scheme to possess covariance structures with adaptive variations of amplitude, scale, profile shape, and degrees of local anisotropy, all as functions of geographical location and altitude. First, it is shown how a wider and more useful variety of covariance shapes than just the Gaussian may be obtained by the positive superposition of Gaussian components of different scales, or by further combinations of these operators with the application of Laplacian operators in order for the products to possess negative sidelobes in their radial profiles. Then it is shown how the techniques of recursive filters may be generalized to admit the construction of covariances whose characteristic scales relative to the grid become adaptive to geographical location, while preserving the necessary properties of self-adjointness and positivity. Special attention is paid to the problems of amplitude control for these spatially inhomogeneous filters and an estimate for the kernel amplitude is proposed based upon an asymptotic analysis of the problem. Finally, a further generalization of the filters that enables fully anisotropic and geographically adaptive covariances to be constructed in a computationally efficient way is discussed.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/UNSSB5ZS/Purser et al_2003_Numerical Aspects of the Application of Recursive Filters to Variational.pdf} +} + +@article{rabier2002, + title = {Channel Selection Methods for {{Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer}} Radiances}, + author = {Rabier, Florence and Fourrié, Nadia and Chafäi, Djalil and Prunet, Pascal}, + date = {2002}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {128}, + number = {581}, + pages = {1011--1027}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1256/0035900021643638}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1256/0035900021643638}, + urldate = {2023-03-17}, + abstract = {Advanced infrared sounders will provide thousands of radiance data at every observation location. The number of individual pieces of information is not usable in an operational numerical weather-prediction context, and we have investigated the possibilities of choosing an ‘optimal’ subset of data. These issues have been addressed in the context of optimal linear estimation theory, using simulated Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer data. Several methods have been tried to select a set of the most useful channels for each individual atmospheric profile. These are two methods based on the data resolution matrix, one method based on the Jacobian matrix, and one iterative method selecting sequentially the channels with largest information content. The Jacobian method and the iterative method were found to be the most suitable for the problem. The iterative method was demonstrated to always produce the best results, but at a larger cost than the Jacobian method. To test the robustness of the iterative method, a variant has been tried. It consists in building a mean channel selection aimed at optimizing the results over the whole database, and then applying to each profile this ‘constant’ selection. Results show that this ‘constant’ iterative method is very promising, with results of intermediate quality between the ones obtained for the optimal iterative method and the Jacobian method. The practical advantage of this method for operational purposes is that the same set of channels can be used for various atmospheric profiles. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {High spectral measurements,IASI,Remote sensing}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/IVFPSYNU/0035900021643638.html} +} + +@article{rasmussen2014, + title = {Severe Convection and Lightning in Subtropical {{South America}}}, + author = {Rasmussen, Kristen L. and Zuluaga, Manuel D. and Houze, Robert A.}, + date = {2014}, + journaltitle = {Geophysical Research Letters}, + volume = {41}, + number = {20}, + pages = {7359--7366}, + issn = {1944-8007}, + doi = {10.1002/2014GL061767}, + url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2014GL061767}, + urldate = {2021-05-14}, + abstract = {Satellite radar and radiometer data show that subtropical South America has the world's deepest convective storms, robust mesoscale convective systems, and very frequent large hail. We determine severe weather characteristics for the most intense precipitation features seen by satellite in this region. In summer, hail and lightning concentrate over the foothills of western Argentina. Lightning has a nocturnal maximum associated with storms having deep and mesoscale convective echoes. In spring, lightning is maximum to the east in association with storms having mesoscale structure. A tornado alley is over the Pampas, in central Argentina, distant from the maximum hail occurrence, in association with extreme storms. In summer, flash floods occur over the Andes foothills associated with storms having deep convective cores. In spring, slow-rise floods occur over the plains with storms of mesoscale dimension. This characterization of high-impact weather in South America provides crucial information for socioeconomic implications and public safety.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {extreme storms,flooding,hail,lightning,tornadoes,TRMM satellite}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/58GMVR74/Rasmussen et al_2014_Severe convection and lightning in subtropical South America.pdf} +} + +@misc{robel2014, + title = {{{NOAA KLM Users Guide}}}, + author = {Robel, Jeffrey and Graumann, Axel}, + date = {2014-04}, + url = {https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/mirs/documents/0.0_NOAA_KLM_Users_Guide.pdf}, + urldate = {2023-05-17}, + langid = {english}, + organization = {{NOAA}}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/UAWQ5ZKH/0.0_NOAA_KLM_Users_Guide.pdf} +} + +@article{roberts2008, + title = {Assessing the Spatial and Temporal Variation in the Skill of Precipitation Forecasts from an {{NWP}} Model}, + author = {Roberts, Nigel}, + date = {2008}, + journaltitle = {Meteorological Applications}, + volume = {15}, + number = {1}, + pages = {163--169}, + issn = {1469-8080}, + doi = {10.1002/met.57}, + url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/met.57}, + urldate = {2020-05-26}, + abstract = {It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale-selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer-resolution models and DA techniques. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {forecasts,precipitation,scale-selective,verification}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Roberts/roberts_2008_assessing_the_spatial_and_temporal_variation_in_the_skill_of_precipitation.pdf} +} + +@article{roberts2020, + title = {What {{Does}} a {{Convection-Allowing Ensemble}} of {{Opportunity Buy Us}} in {{Forecasting Thunderstorms}}?}, + author = {Roberts, Brett and Gallo, Burkely T. and Jirak, Israel L. and Clark, Adam J. and Dowell, David C. and Wang, Xuguang and Wang, Yongming}, + date = {2020-12}, + journaltitle = {Weather and Forecasting}, + volume = {35}, + number = {6}, + pages = {2293--2316}, + issn = {0882-8156, 1520-0434}, + doi = {10.1175/WAF-D-20-0069.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/35/6/WAF-D-20-0069.1.xml}, + urldate = {2021-08-31}, + abstract = {The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast v2.1 (HREFv2.1), an operational convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble, is an ‘‘ensemble of opportunity’’ wherein forecasts from several independently designed deterministic CAMs are aggregated and postprocessed together. Multiple dimensions of diversity in the HREFv2.1 ensemble membership contribute to ensemble spread, including model core, physics parameterization schemes, initial conditions (ICs), and time lagging. In this study, HREFv2.1 forecasts are compared against the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE) and the Multiscale data Assimilation and Predictability (MAP) ensemble, two experimental CAM ensembles that ran during the 5-week Spring Forecasting Experiment (SFE) in spring 2018. The HRRRE and MAP are formally designed ensembles with spread achieved primarily through perturbed ICs. Verification in this study focuses on composite radar reflectivity and updraft helicity to assess ensemble performance in forecasting convective storms. The HREFv2.1 shows the highest overall skill for these forecasts, matching subjective real-time impressions from SFE participants. Analysis of the skill and variance of ensemble member forecasts suggests that the HREFv2.1 exhibits greater spread and more effectively samples model uncertainty than the HRRRE or MAP. These results imply that to optimize skill in forecasting convective storms at 1–2-day lead times, future CAM ensembles should employ either diverse membership designs or sophisticated perturbation schemes capable of representing model uncertainty with comparable efficacy.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/H532LDRN/Roberts et al. - 2020 - What Does a Convection-Allowing Ensemble of Opport.pdf} +} + +@article{ruiz2010, + title = {{{WRF Model Sensitivity}} to {{Choice}} of {{Parameterization}} over {{South America}}: {{Validation}} against {{Surface Variables}}}, + shorttitle = {{{WRF Model Sensitivity}} to {{Choice}} of {{Parameterization}} over {{South America}}}, + author = {Ruiz, Juan J. and Saulo, Celeste and Nogués-Paegle, Julia}, + date = {2010-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {138}, + number = {8}, + pages = {3342--3355}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/2010MWR3358.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/mwr/article/138/8/3342/71137/WRF-Model-Sensitivity-to-Choice-of}, + urldate = {2020-06-23}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Ruiz/ruiz_2010_wrf_model_sensitivity_to_choice_of_parameterization_over_south_america_-2.pdf} +} + +@thesis{saucedo2015, + title = {Estudio de los efectos de diferentes fuentes de error sobre la calidad de los análisis generados por un sistema de asimilación por filtros de Kalman}, + author = {Saucedo, Marcos Adolfo}, + date = {2015}, + abstract = {The pr esent w or k pr oposes t he r ealizat ion of idealized dat a assim ilat ion exper im ent s based on an Ensem ble Kalm an Filt er ( EnKF) in a r egional dom ain cent er ed in Sout h Am er ica. I n par t icular , t he Local Ensem ble Tr ansform Kalm an Filt er ( LETKF) coupled w it h t he Weat her Resear ch and For ecast ing ( WRF) m odel is em ployed. These exper im ent s explor e t he sensit ivit y of t he assim ilation system to the m odel and lateral boundary condition errors.}, + langid = {spanish}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/FF5SRCWK/Saucedo - Estudio de los efectos de diferentes fuentes de er.pdf} +} + +@article{sawada2019, + title = {Impacts of {{Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors Derived}} from {{Himawari-8}} on {{Tropical Cyclone Forecast}} in {{HWRF}}}, + author = {Sawada, Masahiro and Ma, Zaizhong and Mehra, Avichal and Tallapragada, Vijay and Oyama, Ryo and Shimoji, Kazuki}, + date = {2019-10-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {147}, + number = {10}, + pages = {3721--3740}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-18-0261.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/147/10/mwr-d-18-0261.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract The impact of the assimilation of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts has been investigated. The high-resolution AMVs are derived from the full disk scan of the new generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8. Forecast experiments for three TCs in 2016 in a western North Pacific basin are performed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF). Two different ensemble–variational hybrid data assimilation configurations (using background error covariance created by global ensemble forecast and HWRF ensemble forecast), based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI), are used for the sensitivity experiments. The results show that the inclusion of high-resolution Himawari-8 AMVs (H8AMV) can benefit the track forecast skill, especially for long-range lead times. The diagnosis of optimal steering flow indicates that the improved track forecast seems to be attributed to the improvement of initial steering flow surrounding the TC. However, the assimilation of H8AMV increases the negative intensity bias and error, especially for short-range forecast lead times. The investigation of the structural change from the assimilation of H8AMV revealed that the following two factors are likely related to this degradation: 1) an increase of inertial stability outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW), which weakens the boundary layer inflow; and 2) a drying around and outside the RMW. Assimilating H8AMV using background error covariance created from HWRF ensemble forecast contributes to a significant reduction in negative intensity bias and error, and there is a significant benefit to TC size forecast.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/X6K6R6LD/Sawada et al_2019_Impacts of Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors Derived from.pdf} +} + +@article{shao2016, + title = {Bridging {{Research}} to {{Operations Transitions}}: {{Status}} and {{Plans}} of {{Community GSI}}}, + shorttitle = {Bridging {{Research}} to {{Operations Transitions}}}, + author = {Shao, Hui and Derber, John and Huang, Xiang-Yu and Hu, Ming and Newman, Kathryn and Stark, Donald and Lueken, Michael and Zhou, Chunhua and Nance, Louisa and Kuo, Ying-Hwa and Brown, Barbara}, + date = {2016-08-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {97}, + number = {8}, + pages = {1427--1440}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00245.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00245.1}, + urldate = {2021-03-13}, + abstract = {Abstract With a goal of improving operational numerical weather prediction (NWP), the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) has been working with operational centers, including, among others, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the U.S. Air Force, to support numerical models/systems and their research, perform objective testing and evaluation of NWP methods, and facilitate research-to-operations transitions. This article introduces the first attempt of the DTC in the data assimilation area to help achieve this goal. Since 2009, the DTC, NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), and other developers have made significant progress in transitioning the operational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system into a community-based code management framework. Currently, GSI is provided to the public with user support and is open for contributions from internal developers as well as the broader research community, following the same code transition procedures. This article introduces measures and steps taken during this community GSI effort followed by discussions of encountered challenges and issues. The purpose of this article is to promote contributions from the research community to operational data assimilation capabilities and, furthermore, to seek potential solutions to stimulate such a transition and, eventually, improve the NWP capabilities in the United States.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/2RZ78BLE/Shao et al. - 2016 - Bridging Research to Operations Transitions Statu.pdf} +} + +@article{singh2016, + title = {Impact of the Assimilation of {{INSAT-3D}} Radiances on Short-Range Weather Forecasts: {{Assimilation}} of {{INSAT-3D Radiances}}}, + shorttitle = {Impact of the Assimilation of {{INSAT-3D}} Radiances on Short-Range Weather Forecasts}, + author = {Singh, Randhir and Ojha, Satya P. and Kishtawal, C. M. and Pal, P. K. and Kiran Kumar, A. S.}, + date = {2016-01}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + shortjournal = {Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc.}, + volume = {142}, + number = {694}, + pages = {120--131}, + issn = {00359009}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.2636}, + url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/qj.2636}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Singh/singh_2016_impact_of_the_assimilation_of_insat-3d_radiances_on_short-range_weather.pdf} +} + +@inproceedings{skabar2018, + title = {Implementación del modelo WRF en alta resolución en el Servicio Meteorológico Nacional}, + author = {Skabar, Yanina GARCÍA and Matsudo, Cynthia and Hobouchian, María Paula and Ruiz, Juan and Righetti, Silvina}, + date = {2018}, + pages = {2}, + publisher = {{Servicio Meteorológico Nacional}}, + location = {{Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina}}, + abstract = {This work describes the operational implementation of a High Resolution version of Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in the National Meteorological Service. Validation of the temperature and precipitation forecasts generated from July 2017 to June 2018 is shown, adding a comparison with the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts. Results indicate that WRF model generally perform better than GFS.}, + eventtitle = {XIII CONGREMET}, + langid = {spanish}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/BQK582TR/Skabar et al. - IMPLEMENTACIÓN DEL MODELO WRF EN ALTA RESOLUCIÓN E.pdf} +} + +@report{skamarock2008, + title = {A {{Description}} of the {{Advanced Research WRF Version}} 3}, + author = {Skamarock, William C and Klemp, Joseph B and Dudhia, Jimy and Gill, David O and Barker, Dale M and Duda, Michael G and Huang, Xiang-Yu and Wang, Wei and Powers, Jordan G}, + date = {2008-06}, + pages = {125}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/VIG7N39R/Skamarock et al. - A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version.pdf} +} + +@article{sobash2015, + title = {Assimilating {{Surface Mesonet Observations}} with the {{EnKF}} to {{Improve Ensemble Forecasts}} of {{Convection Initiation}} on 29 {{May}} 2012}, + author = {Sobash, Ryan A. and Stensrud, David J.}, + date = {2015-09-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {143}, + number = {9}, + pages = {3700--3725}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-14-00126.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/143/9/mwr-d-14-00126.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract Surface data assimilation (DA) has the potential to improve forecasts of convection initiation (CI) and short-term forecasts of convective evolution. Since the processes driving CI occur on scales inadequately observed by conventional observation networks, mesoscale surface networks could be especially beneficial given their higher temporal and spatial resolution. This work aims to assess the impact of high-frequency assimilation of mesonet surface DA on ensemble forecasts of CI initialized with ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses of the 29 May 2012 convective event over the southern Great Plains. Mesonet and conventional surface observations were assimilated every 5 min for 3 h from 1800 to 2100 UTC and 3-h ensemble forecasts were produced. Forecasts of CI timing and location were improved by assimilating the surface datasets in comparison to experiments where mesonet data were withheld. This primarily occurred due to a more accurate representation of the boundary layer moisture profile across the domain, especially in the vicinity of a dryline and stationary boundary. Ensemble forecasts produced by assimilating surface observations at hourly intervals, instead of every 5 min, showed only minor improvements in CI. The 5-min assimilation of mesonet data improved forecasts of the placement and timing of CI for this particular event due to the ability of mesonet data to capture rapidly evolving mesoscale features and to constrain model biases, particularly surface moisture errors, during the cycling period.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/A2WH2P64/Sobash_Stensrud_2015_Assimilating Surface Mesonet Observations with the EnKF to Improve Ensemble.pdf} +} + +@misc{sondeos, + title = {Multi-Network Composite Highest Resolution Radiosonde Data. {{Version}} 1.3. {{UCAR}}/{{NCAR}} - Earth Observing Laboratory.}, + author = {UCAR/NCAR - Earth Observing Laboratory}, + date = {2020}, + url = {https://doi.org/10.26023/GKFF-YNBJ-BV14} +} + +@article{stensrud2013, + title = {Progress and Challenges with {{Warn-on-Forecast}}}, + author = {Stensrud, David J. and Wicker, Louis J. and Xue, Ming and Dawson, Daniel T. and Yussouf, Nusrat and Wheatley, Dustan M. and Thompson, Therese E. and Snook, Nathan A. and Smith, Travis M. and Schenkman, Alexander D. and Potvin, Corey K. and Mansell, Edward R. and Lei, Ting and Kuhlman, Kristin M. and Jung, Youngsun and Jones, Thomas A. and Gao, Jidong and Coniglio, Michael C. and Brooks, Harold E. and Brewster, Keith A.}, + date = {2013-04-01}, + journaltitle = {Atmospheric Research}, + shortjournal = {Atmospheric Research}, + series = {6th {{European Conference}} on {{Severe Storms}} 2011. {{Palma}} de {{Mallorca}}, {{Spain}}}, + volume = {123}, + pages = {2--16}, + issn = {0169-8095}, + doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.004}, + url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016980951200110X}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast—a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations—are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {Ensemble forecasts,Real-time analyses,Warnings}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/J9BB2T4Z/Stensrud et al_2013_Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast.pdf} +} + +@article{sun2014, + title = {Use of {{NWP}} for {{Nowcasting Convective Precipitation}}: {{Recent Progress}} and {{Challenges}}}, + shorttitle = {Use of {{NWP}} for {{Nowcasting Convective Precipitation}}}, + author = {Sun, Juanzhen and Xue, Ming and Wilson, James W. and Zawadzki, Isztar and Ballard, Sue P. and Onvlee-Hooimeyer, Jeanette and Joe, Paul and Barker, Dale M. and Li, Ping-Wah and Golding, Brian and Xu, Mei and Pinto, James}, + date = {2014-03-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + volume = {95}, + number = {3}, + pages = {409--426}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00263.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/95/3/bams-d-11-00263.1.xml}, + urldate = {2021-05-14}, + abstract = {{$<$}section class="abstract"{$><$}p{$>$}Traditionally, the nowcasting of precipitation was conducted to a large extent by means of extrapolation of observations, especially of radar ref lectivity. In recent years, the blending of traditional extrapolation-based techniques with high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) is gaining popularity in the nowcasting community. The increased need of NWP products in nowcasting applications poses great challenges to the NWP community because the nowcasting application of high-resolution NWP has higher requirements on the quality and content of the initial conditions compared to longer-range NWP. Considerable progress has been made in the use of NWP for nowcasting thanks to the increase in computational resources, advancement of high-resolution data assimilation techniques, and improvement of convective-permitting numerical modeling. This paper summarizes the recent progress and discusses some of the challenges for future advancement.{$<$}/p{$><$}/section{$>$}}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ZNDHGDTG/Sun et al_2014_Use of NWP for Nowcasting Convective Precipitation.pdf} +} + +@article{tong2020, + title = {Multiple {{Hydrometeors All-Sky Microwave Radiance Assimilation}} in {{FV3GFS}}}, + author = {Tong, Mingjing and Zhu, Yanqiu and Zhou, Linjiong and Liu, Emily and Chen, Ming and Liu, Quanhua and Lin, Shian-Jiann}, + date = {2020-07-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {148}, + number = {7}, + pages = {2971--2995}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-19-0231.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/148/7/mwrD190231.xml}, + urldate = {2023-02-20}, + abstract = {Abstract Motivated by the use of the GFDL microphysics scheme in the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core Global Forecast System (FV3GFS), the all-sky radiance assimilation framework has been expanded to include precipitating hydrometeors. Adding precipitating hydrometeors allows the assimilation of precipitation-affected radiance in addition to cloudy radiance. In this upgraded all-sky framework, the five hydrometeors, including cloud liquid water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel, are the new control variables, replacing the original cloud water control variable. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) was interfaced with the newly added precipitating hydrometeors. Subgrid cloud variability was considered by using the average cloud overlap scheme. Multiple scattering radiative transfer was activated in the upgraded framework. Radiance observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) over ocean were assimilated in all-sky approach. This new constructed all-sky framework shows neutral to positive impact on overall forecast skill. Improvement was found in 500-hPa geopotential height forecast in both Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Temperature forecast was also improved at 850 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere and the tropics.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/XYRCF23I/Tong et al. - 2020 - Multiple Hydrometeors All-Sky Microwave Radiance A.pdf} +} + +@inproceedings{toshioinouye2017, + title = {Impact of Radar Data Assimilation on a Severe Storm Study in Brazil}, + author = {Toshio Inouye, Rafael and Calvetti, Leonardo and Gonçalves, J. and Maske, Bianca and Neundorf, R. and Beneti, Cesar and Diniz, Fábio and Vendrasco, Eder and Herdies, Dirceu and family=goncalves, given=luis, prefix=gustavo, useprefix=true}, + date = {2017-01}, + location = {{Seattle, WA}}, + url = {https://www.researchgate.net/publication/313040194_Impact_of_Radar_Data_Assimilation_on_a_Severe_Storm_Study_in_Brazil/link/5bf7d30b299bf1a0202cbcc0/download}, + eventtitle = {97th {{American Meteorological Meeting Annual Meeting}}} +} + +@article{vendrasco2020, + title = {Potential Use of the {{GLM}} for Nowcasting and Data Assimilation}, + author = {Vendrasco, Eder P. and Machado, Luiz A. T. and Araujo, Carolina S. and Ribaud, Jean-François and Ferreira, Rute C.}, + date = {2020-09-15}, + journaltitle = {Atmospheric Research}, + shortjournal = {Atmospheric Research}, + volume = {242}, + pages = {105019}, + issn = {0169-8095}, + doi = {10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105019}, + url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809519308622}, + urldate = {2020-09-16}, + abstract = {Based on the relationship between lightning and thunderstorm microphysics, this paper aims to determine the averaged vertical profiles of polarimetric variables for different classes of lightning density according to the GLM grid and then evaluate the potential use of these profiles for data assimilation in models with high spatial and temporal resolutions. Polarimetric variables from an X-band radar located in Campinas-SP and data from the Brazilian Network were used to detect the microphysics properties and atmospheric discharges of clouds (GLM proxy). The main differences between the lightning density class-averaged profiles for the four variables of ZH, ZDR, KDP and ρHV were observed in the region above the melting layer. For the most intense lightning classes, the signatures associated with high concentrations of ice particles at high altitudes, the presence of supercooled drops above the freezing level and the occurrence of large and more oblate raindrops were observed. To analyze the possible use of reflectivity profiles as a way to indirectly assimilate GLM information into forecast models, two case studies were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The analyses and forecasts obtained with the assimilation of radar data (reflectivity factor and Doppler winds) and with the indirect assimilation of GLM lightning density rates through mean reflectivity profiles were evaluated against a control run assimilating no data. Overall, the two assimilation experiments offered substantial improvements over the control run in terms of short-term forecasts of reflectivity patterns and storm motion. These encouraging results supports the ability of the GLM data to positively contribute to nowcasting and forecasting of convective-scale systems, especially over the vast regions of the South American continent currently suffering from limited and, even, an utter lack of observations.}, + langid = {english} +} + +@thesis{vera1992, + type = {Tesis Doctoral}, + title = {Un sistema de asimilación de datos para la región extratropical de Sudamérica}, + author = {Vera, Carolina Susana}, + date = {1992}, + institution = {{Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales}}, + url = {https://bibliotecadigital.exactas.uba.ar/collection/tesis/document/tesis_n2498_Vera}, + urldate = {2022-04-25}, + abstract = {Con el fin de proporcionar una nueva herramienta que permitiera una mejora del pronóstico numérico en la región sur de Sudamérica y al mismo tiempo realizara un uso óptimo de la datos de datos (SADI) adecuado a las posibilidades computacionales existentes hasta el momento en los centros de pronóstico numérico operativos en la Argentina. El SADI conta de: un proceso de preanálisis, un esquema de análisis objetivo y un modelo de pronóstico. En la presente tesis se desarrollaron las primeras dos etapas del sistema y se acopló al mismo un modelo cuasigeostrófico de seis niveles adaptado a la región en el Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera de la Universidad de Buenos Aires. El esquema de análisis objetivo se basa en el método de interpolación optimal (IO) y en forma tridimensional y multivariada proporciona campos analizados de geopotencial en los seis niveles del modelo de pronóstico a partir de observaciones de geopotencial, viento y espesor de geopotencial. Con el fin de verificar la calidad del análisis proporcionado por el esquema desarrollado, se diseñó un experimento numérico que realiza el análisis de geopotencial en dos niveles verticales a partir d conjuntos de datos simulados en la región con diferentes densidades y con datos de diferentes fuentes de medición. Estas experiencias permitieron visualizar principalmente el grado de deterioro que el análisis puede sufrir cuando la información observacional no es suficiente. Se realizó un estudio en particular sobre la forma de incluir a los datos de espesor de geopotencial en el análisis. Se observó que ésta debería depender de las caractarísticas particulares de cada esquema de análisis y en especial del procedimiento de selección de los datos. estas experiencias también mostraron que el valor óptimo de la longitud característica de la función de autocorrelación de los errores del geopotencial depende fuertemente de la separación media que existe entre las observaciones. Así mismo se obtuvo que variaciones del cociente entre los errores de observación y los de pronóstico (€\^0) tienen un impacto considerable en las regiones donde la información es interpolada o bien extrapolada. Las verificaciones realizadas de los campos del SADI tanto cualitativas, a través de la comparaciones con otros análisis, como cuantitativas fueron satisfactorias. Se desarrolló una nueva metodología de verificación del análisis (SVA). La misma, sencillamente se basa en realizar el análisis sobre cada una de las posiciones de las observaciones pero sin incluirlas y luego comparar los valores analizados obtenidos con los observados. Esta metodología fue comparada con la desarrollada por Hollingsworth y Lonnberg (1989) (HL). Estas metodologías se aplicaron en una primera etapa a verificar los campos analizados por el sistema de asimilación de datos global (GDAS) del NMC. Los resultados de las mismas si bién fueron globalmente satisfactorios, mostraron diferentes resultados según las regiones. Se observó que en la regiones ralas en datos existe una sobreestimación del GDAS de los correspon- dientes errores teóricos de predicción mientras que lo opuesto se encontró en regiones densas en datos. Se sugiere que estos resultados pueden deberse a una falta de regionalización en la determinación de la tasa de crecimiento de los errores de pronóstico, o bien a una falta de variación regional de las funciones de autocorrelación del geopotencial. De la comparación de entre los resultados obtenidos con las dos metodologías de verificación surge que ambas tuvieron un comportamiento comparable aunque el SVA resultó más sensible a los cambios propuestos. Ambas metodologías finalmente fueron aplicadas para verificar el análisis del SADI. Se puso especial énfasis en la verificación de una nueva función de autocorrelación del geopotencial. Debido a las deficiencias de la función gaussiana se decidió modelar la función de autocorrelación con una serie de Fourier Bessel, lo que equivale a representarla con una estimación de su espectro de potencias. Ambas representaciones de la función de autocorrelación del geopotencial fueron verificadas en la región aplicando las dos metodologías previamente descriptas. Los resultados de ambas coinciden en señalar que los análisis realizados con la serie de Fourier Bessel permitieron una mayor consistencia entre las estadísticas observadas y las estimadas en el análisis. De la comparación entre ambas metodologías de verificación del análisis, surge que la metodología SVA sería la más apropiada para utilizar en la región.\textbackslash n}, + langid = {spanish}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/HK38XB6I/Vera_1992_Un sistema de asimilación de datos para la región extratropical de Sudamérica.pdf} +} + +@article{vera2006, + title = {The {{South American Low-Level Jet Experiment}}}, + author = {Vera, C. and Baez, J. and Douglas, M. and Emmanuel, C. B. and Marengo, J. and Meitin, J. and Nicolini, M. and Nogues-Paegle, J. and Paegle, J. and Penalba, O. and Salio, P. and Saulo, C. and Silva Dias, M. A. and Dias, P. Silva and Zipser, E.}, + date = {2006-01}, + journaltitle = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, + shortjournal = {Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.}, + volume = {87}, + number = {1}, + pages = {63--78}, + issn = {0003-0007, 1520-0477}, + doi = {10.1175/BAMS-87-1-63}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-87-1-63}, + urldate = {2020-05-07}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Vera/vera_2006_the_south_american_low-level_jet_experiment.pdf} +} + +@article{wang2021, + title = {The {{Impact}} of {{Assimilating Satellite Radiance Observations}} in the {{Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis}} ({{CERRA}})}, + author = {Wang, Zheng Qi and Randriamampianina, Roger}, + date = {2021-01}, + journaltitle = {Remote Sensing}, + volume = {13}, + number = {3}, + pages = {426}, + publisher = {{Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute}}, + issn = {2072-4292}, + doi = {10.3390/rs13030426}, + url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/13/3/426}, + urldate = {2022-04-05}, + abstract = {The assimilation of microwave and infrared (IR) radiance satellite observations within numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been an important component in the effort of improving the accuracy of analysis and forecast. Such capabilities were implemented during the development of the high-resolution Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA), funded by the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The CERRA system couples the deterministic system with the ensemble data assimilation to provide periodic updates of the background error covariance matrix. Several key factors for the assimilation of radiances were investigated, including appropriate use of variational bias correction (VARBC), surface-sensitive AMSU-A observations and observation error correlation. Twenty-one-day impact studies during the summer and winter seasons were conducted. Generally, the assimilation of radiances has a small impact on the analysis, while greater impacts are observed on short-range (12 and 24-h) forecasts with an error reduction of 1–2\% for the mid and high troposphere. Although, the current configuration provided less accurate forecasts from 09 and 18 UTC analysis times. With the increased thinning distances and the rejection of IASI observation over land, the errors in the analyses and 3 h forecasts on geopotential height were reduced up to 2\%.}, + issue = {3}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S),data assimilation,limited area model,radiance observations,regional reanalysis,satellite observations}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/U5KI4AXX/Wang_Randriamampianina_2021_The Impact of Assimilating Satellite Radiance Observations in the Copernicus.pdf} +} + +@article{weng2013, + title = {Calibration of {{Suomi}} National Polar-Orbiting Partnership Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder}, + author = {Weng, Fuzhong and Zou, Xiaolei and Sun, Ninghai and Yang, Hu and Tian, Miao and Blackwell, William J. and Wang, Xiang and Lin, Lin and Anderson, Kent}, + date = {2013}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres}, + volume = {118}, + number = {19}, + pages = {11,187--11,200}, + issn = {2169-8996}, + doi = {10.1002/jgrd.50840}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jgrd.50840}, + urldate = {2023-02-20}, + abstract = {The Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite was launched on 28 October 2011 and carries the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) on board. ATMS is a cross-track scanning instrument observing in 22 channels at frequencies ranging from 23 to 183 GHz, permitting the measurements of the atmospheric temperature and moisture under most weather conditions. In this study, the ATMS radiometric calibration algorithm used in the operational system is first evaluated through independent analyses of prelaunch thermal vacuum data. It is found that the ATMS peak nonlinearity for all the channels is less than 0.5 K, which is well within the specification. For the characterization of the ATMS instrument sensitivity or noise equivalent differential temperatures (NEDT), both standard deviation and Allan variance of warm counts are computed and compared. It is shown that NEDT derived from the standard deviation is about three to five times larger than that from the Allan variance. The difference results from a nonstationary component in the standard deviation of warm counts. The Allan variance is better suited than the standard deviation for describing NEDT. In the ATMS sensor brightness temperature data record (SDR) processing algorithm, the antenna gain efficiencies of main beam, cross-polarization beam, and side lobes must be derived accurately from the antenna gain distribution function. However, uncertainties remain in computing the efficiencies at ATMS high frequencies. Thus, ATMS antenna brightness temperature data records (TDR) at channels 1 to 15 are converted to SDR with the actual beam efficiencies whereas those for channels 16 to 22 are only corrected for the near-field sidelobe contributions. The biases of ATMS SDR measurements to the simulations are consistent between GPS RO and NWP data and are generally less than 0.5 K for those temperature-sounding channels where both the forward model and input atmospheric profiles are reliable.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {ATMS,calibration}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ACEGYEGG/Weng et al. - 2013 - Calibration of Suomi national polar-orbiting partn.pdf;/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/BNSHL2BK/jgrd.html} +} + +@online{weston2019, + title = {Investigations into the Assimilation of {{AMSU-A}} in the Presence of Cloud and Precipitation}, + author = {Weston, Peter and Geer, Alan and Bormann, Niels and Bormann, Niels}, + date = {2019}, + series = {{{EUMETSAT}}/{{ECMWF Fellowship Programme Research Report}}}, + publisher = {{ECMWF}}, + issn = {50}, + doi = {10.21957/ewahn9ce}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Weston/weston_2019_investigations_into_the_assimilation_of_amsu-a_in_the_presence_of_cloud_and.pdf} +} + +@article{wheatley2010, + title = {The {{Impact}} of {{Assimilating Surface Pressure Observations}} on {{Severe Weather Events}} in a {{WRF Mesoscale Ensemble System}}}, + author = {Wheatley, Dustan M. and Stensrud, David J.}, + date = {2010-05-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {138}, + number = {5}, + pages = {1673--1694}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/2009MWR3042.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/138/5/2009mwr3042.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract Surface pressure observations are assimilated into a Weather Research and Forecast ensemble using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach and the results are compared with observations for two severe weather events. Several EnKF experiments are performed to evaluate the relative impacts of two very different pressure observations: altimeter setting (a total pressure field) and 1-h surface pressure tendency. The primary objective of this study is to determine the surface pressure observation that is most successful in producing realistic mesoscale features, such as convectively driven cold pools, which often play an important role in future convective development. Results show that ensemble-mean pressure analyses produced from the assimilation of surface temperature, moisture, and winds possess significant errors in regard to mesohigh strength and location. The addition of surface pressure tendency observations within the assimilation yields limited ability to constrain such errors, while the assimilation of altimeter setting yields accurate depictions of the mesoscale pressure patterns associated with mesoscale convective systems. The mesoscale temperature patterns produced by all the ensembles are quite similar and tend to reproduce the observed features. Results suggest that even though surface pressure observations can have large cross covariances with temperature and the wind components, the resulting analyses fail to improve upon the EnKF temperature and wind analyses that exclude the surface pressure observations. Ensemble forecasts following the assimilation period show the potential to improve short-range forecasting of surface pressure.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/JYZL7XUK/Wheatley_Stensrud_2010_The Impact of Assimilating Surface Pressure Observations on Severe Weather.pdf} +} + +@article{whitaker2002, + title = {Ensemble {{Data Assimilation}} without {{Perturbed Observations}}}, + author = {Whitaker, Jeffrey S. and Hamill, Thomas M.}, + date = {2002-07-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {130}, + number = {7}, + pages = {1913--1924}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<1913:EDAWPO>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/130/7/1520-0493_2002_130_1913_edawpo_2.0.co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2022-10-19}, + abstract = {Abstract The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a data assimilation scheme based on the traditional Kalman filter update equation. An ensemble of forecasts are used to estimate the background-error covariances needed to compute the Kalman gain. It is known that if the same observations and the same gain are used to update each member of the ensemble, the ensemble will systematically underestimate analysis-error covariances. This will cause a degradation of subsequent analyses and may lead to filter divergence. For large ensembles, it is known that this problem can be alleviated by treating the observations as random variables, adding random perturbations to them with the correct statistics. Two important consequences of sampling error in the estimate of analysis-error covariances in the EnKF are discussed here. The first results from the analysis-error covariance being a nonlinear function of the background-error covariance in the Kalman filter. Due to this nonlinearity, analysis-error covariance estimates may be negatively biased, even if the ensemble background-error covariance estimates are unbiased. This problem must be dealt with in any Kalman filter–based ensemble data assimilation scheme. A second consequence of sampling error is particular to schemes like the EnKF that use perturbed observations. While this procedure gives asymptotically correct analysis-error covariance estimates for large ensembles, the addition of perturbed observations adds an additional source of sampling error related to the estimation of the observation-error covariances. In addition to reducing the accuracy of the analysis-error covariance estimate, this extra source of sampling error increases the probability that the analysis-error covariance will be underestimated. Because of this, ensemble data assimilation methods that use perturbed observations are expected to be less accurate than those which do not. Several ensemble filter formulations have recently been proposed that do not require perturbed observations. This study examines a particularly simple implementation called the ensemble square root filter, or EnSRF. The EnSRF uses the traditional Kalman gain for updating the ensemble mean but uses a “reduced” Kalman gain to update deviations from the ensemble mean. There is no additional computational cost incurred by the EnSRF relative to the EnKF when the observations have independent errors and are processed one at a time. Using a hierarchy of perfect model assimilation experiments, it is demonstrated that the elimination of the sampling error associated with the perturbed observations makes the EnSRF more accurate than the EnKF for the same ensemble size.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/DL5WMS4G/Whitaker_Hamill_2002_Ensemble Data Assimilation without Perturbed Observations.pdf} +} + +@article{whitaker2008, + title = {Ensemble {{Data Assimilation}} with the {{NCEP Global Forecast System}}}, + author = {Whitaker, Jeffrey S. and Hamill, Thomas M. and Wei, Xue and Song, Yucheng and Toth, Zoltan}, + date = {2008-02-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {136}, + number = {2}, + pages = {463--482}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/2007MWR2018.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/136/2/2007mwr2018.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract Real-data experiments with an ensemble data assimilation system using the NCEP Global Forecast System model were performed and compared with the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS). All observations in the operational data stream were assimilated for the period 1 January–10 February 2004, except satellite radiances. Because of computational resource limitations, the comparison was done at lower resolution (triangular truncation at wavenumber 62 with 28 levels) than the GDAS real-time NCEP operational runs (triangular truncation at wavenumber 254 with 64 levels). The ensemble data assimilation system outperformed the reduced-resolution version of the NCEP three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR), with the biggest improvement in data-sparse regions. Ensemble data assimilation analyses yielded a 24-h improvement in forecast skill in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics relative to the NCEP 3DVAR system (the 48-h forecast from the ensemble data assimilation system was as accurate as the 24-h forecast from the 3DVAR system). Improvements in the data-rich Northern Hemisphere, while still statistically significant, were more modest. It remains to be seen whether the improvements seen in the Southern Hemisphere will be retained when satellite radiances are assimilated. Three different parameterizations of background errors unaccounted for in the data assimilation system (including model error) were tested. Adding scaled random differences between adjacent 6-hourly analyses from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis to each ensemble member (additive inflation) performed slightly better than the other two methods (multiplicative inflation and relaxation-to-prior).}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/EQY8CLIE/Whitaker et al_2008_Ensemble Data Assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System.pdf} +} + +@article{whitaker2012, + title = {Evaluating {{Methods}} to {{Account}} for {{System Errors}} in {{Ensemble Data Assimilation}}}, + author = {Whitaker, Jeffrey S. and Hamill, Thomas M.}, + date = {2012-09}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {140}, + number = {9}, + pages = {3078--3089}, + issn = {0027-0644, 1520-0493}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-11-00276.1}, + url = {http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00276.1}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {Inflation of ensemble perturbations is employed in ensemble Kalman filters to account for unrepresented error sources. The authors propose a multiplicative inflation algorithm that inflates the posterior ensemble in proportion to the amount that observations reduce the ensemble spread, resulting in more inflation in regions of dense observations. This is justified since the posterior ensemble variance is more affected by sampling errors in these regions. The algorithm is similar to the ‘‘relaxation to prior’’ algorithm proposed by Zhang et al., but it relaxes the posterior ensemble spread back to the prior instead of the posterior ensemble perturbations.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/DWJEFIUQ/Whitaker and Hamill - 2012 - Evaluating Methods to Account for System Errors in.pdf} +} + +@book{wilks2011, + title = {Statistical {{Methods}} in the {{Atmospheric Sciences}}}, + author = {Wilks, Daniel S.}, + date = {2011}, + edition = {3rd}, + volume = {100}, + isbn = {978-0-12-385022-5}, + pagetotal = {676} +} + +@article{wu2002, + title = {Three-{{Dimensional Variational Analysis}} with {{Spatially Inhomogeneous Covariances}}}, + author = {Wu, Wan-Shu and Purser, R. James and Parrish, David F.}, + date = {2002-12-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {130}, + number = {12}, + pages = {2905--2916}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2905:TDVAWS>2.0.CO;2}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/130/12/1520-0493_2002_130_2905_tdvaws_2.0.co_2.xml}, + urldate = {2022-10-19}, + abstract = {Abstract In this study, a global three-dimensional variational analysis system is formulated in model grid space. This formulation allows greater flexibility (e.g., inhomogeneity and anisotropy) for background error statistics. A simpler formulation, inhomogeneous only in the latitude direction, was chosen for these initial tests. The background error statistics are defined as functions of the latitudinal grid and are estimated with the National Meteorological Center (NMC) method. The horizontal scales of the variables are obtained through the variances of the variables and of their Laplacian. The vertical scales are estimated through the statistics of the vertical correlation of each variable and are applied locally using recursive filters. For the multivariate correlation between wind and mass fields, a statistical linear relationship between the streamfunction and the balanced part of temperature and surface pressure is assumed. A localized correlation between the velocity potential and the streamfunction is also used to account for the positive correlation between the vorticity and divergence in the planetary boundary layer. Horizontally, the global domain is divided into three pieces so that efficient spatial recursive filters can be used to spread out the information from the observation locations. This analysis system is tested against the operational Spectral Statistical-Interpolation analysis system used at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The results indicate that 3DVAR in physical space is as effective as 3DVAR in spectral space in the extratropics and yields superior results in the Tropics as a result of the latitude dependence of the background error statistics.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/M8VJ2ZKE/Wu et al_2002_Three-Dimensional Variational Analysis with Spatially Inhomogeneous Covariances.pdf} +} + +@article{wu2014, + title = {Influence of {{Assimilating Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vector Observations}} on {{Numerical Analyses}} and {{Forecasts}} of {{Tropical Cyclone Track}} and {{Intensity}}}, + author = {Wu, Ting-Chi and Liu, Hui and Majumdar, Sharanya J. and Velden, Christopher S. and Anderson, Jeffrey L.}, + date = {2014-01-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {142}, + number = {1}, + pages = {49--71}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-13-00023.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/142/1/mwr-d-13-00023.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-04-04}, + abstract = {Abstract The influence of assimilating enhanced atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) on mesoscale analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones (TC) is investigated. AMVs from the geostationary Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) are processed by the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS, University of Wisconsin–Madison) for the duration of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008), which included a rapid intensification phase and a slow, meandering track. The ensemble Kalman filter and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are utilized within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed. In addition to conventional observations, three different groups of AMVs are assimilated in parallel experiments: CTL, the same dataset assimilated in the NCEP operational analysis; CIMSS(h), hourly datasets processed by CIMSS; and CIMSS(h+RS), the dataset including AMVs from the rapid-scan mode. With an order of magnitude more AMV data assimilated, the CIMSS(h) analyses exhibit a superior track, intensity, and structure to CTL analyses. The corresponding 3-day ensemble forecasts initialized with CIMSS(h) yield smaller track and intensity errors than those initialized with CTL. During the period when rapid-scan AMVs are available, the CIMSS(h+RS) analyses offer additional modifications to the TC and its environment. In contrast to many members in the ensemble forecasts initialized from the CTL and CIMSS(h) analyses that predict an erroneous landfall in China, the CIMSS(h+RS) members capture recurvature, albeit prematurely. The results demonstrate the promise of assimilating enhanced AMV data into regional TC models. Further studies to identify optimal strategies for assimilating integrated full-resolution multivariate data from satellites are under way.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/HTGLS9FD/Wu et al_2014_Influence of Assimilating Satellite-Derived Atmospheric Motion Vector.pdf} +} + +@article{zhao2021, + title = {Impact of {{Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors}} on {{Convective Scale Short-Term Forecasts}}: 1. {{Observing System Simulation Experiment}} ({{OSSE}})}, + shorttitle = {Impact of {{Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors}} on {{Convective Scale Short-Term Forecasts}}}, + author = {Zhao, J. and Gao, Jidong and Jones, Thomas A. and Hu, Junjun}, + date = {2021}, + journaltitle = {Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems}, + volume = {13}, + number = {10}, + pages = {e2021MS002484}, + issn = {1942-2466}, + doi = {10.1029/2021MS002484}, + url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2021MS002484}, + urldate = {2022-04-10}, + abstract = {This research investigates to what extent the high-spatiotemporal-resolution Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) product derived from the new-generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-Series R can benefit convective-scale data assimilation (DA) and forecasts of potential high impact weather events. In the first part of this two-part study, the impact of AMV DA on convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) is evaluated with an idealized supercell storm. The simulated AMV observations are synthesized from the idealized supercell storm generated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model and then the data are assimilated with a three-dimensional variational analysis and forecast system. A baseline DA experiment demonstrates that the wind errors within and around the storms are remarkably reduced by assimilating the AMV data, consequently enhancing the storm top-level divergence and low-level convergence signatures associated with two strong splitting supercells. Three sets of sensitivity experiments are then performed to test the impact of observation resolution, DA cycling frequency and horizontal correlation length scale respectively. Generally, assimilating higher-spatial-resolution AMVs at higher cycling frequency is able to produce reasonable divergence analysis as well as the subsequent 90 min forecasts. However, too frequent DA cycling tends to produce a warm bias and overestimate nonprecipitating hydrometeor and storm-relative helicity features, resulting in more spurious cells in the short-term forecasts. It is also found that the correlation length scale of 20 km produces the best results when assimilating the AMV data.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {Atmospheric Motion Vectors,GOES-R,Numerical Weather Prediction,OSSE}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/YBVGSRQN/Zhao et al_2021_Impact of Assimilating High-Resolution Atmospheric Motion Vectors on Convective.pdf} +} + +@article{zhu2008, + title = {Observation {{Sensitivity Calculations Using}} the {{Adjoint}} of the {{Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation}} ({{GSI}}) {{Analysis System}}}, + author = {Zhu, Yanqiu and Gelaro, Ronald}, + date = {2008-01-01}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + volume = {136}, + number = {1}, + pages = {335--351}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {1520-0493, 0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR3525.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/136/1/mwr3525.1.xml}, + urldate = {2022-10-19}, + abstract = {Abstract The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides an efficient way of estimating sensitivities of analysis or forecast measures with respect to observations. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed an exact adjoint of the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis scheme developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The development approach is unique in that the adjoint is derived from a line-by-line tangent linear version of the GSI. Availability of the tangent linear scheme provides an explicit means of assessing not only the fidelity of the adjoint, but also the effects of nonlinear processes in the GSI itself. In this paper, the development of the tangent linear and adjoint versions of the GSI are discussed and observation sensitivity results for a near-operational version of the system are shown. Results indicate that the GSI adjoint provides accurate assessments of the sensitivities with respect to observations of wind, temperature, satellite radiances, and, to a lesser extent, moisture. Sensitivities with respect to ozone observations are quite linear for the ozone fields themselves, but highly nonlinear for other variables. The sensitivity information provided by the adjoint is used to estimate the contribution, or impact, of various observing systems on locally defined response functions based on the analyzed increments of temperature and zonal wind. It is shown, for example, that satellite radiances have the largest impact of all observing systems on the temperature increments over the eastern North Pacific, while conventional observations from rawinsondes and aircraft dominate the impact on the zonal wind increments over the continental United States. The observation impact calculations also provide an additional means of validating the observation sensitivities produced by the GSI adjoint.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/MCPV2IVZ/Zhu_Gelaro_2008_Observation Sensitivity Calculations Using the Adjoint of the Gridpoint.pdf} +} + +@article{zhu2014, + title = {Enhanced Radiance Bias Correction in the {{National Centers}} for {{Environmental Prediction}}'s {{Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation}} Data Assimilation System}, + author = {Zhu, Yanqiu and Derber, John and Collard, Andrew and Dee, Dick and Treadon, Russ and Gayno, George and Jung, James A.}, + date = {2014}, + journaltitle = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society}, + volume = {140}, + number = {682}, + pages = {1479--1492}, + issn = {1477-870X}, + doi = {10.1002/qj.2233}, + url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/qj.2233}, + urldate = {2020-06-04}, + abstract = {Radiance bias correction is an important and necessary step in the proper use of satellite observations in a data assimilation system. The original radiance bias-correction scheme used in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system consists of two components: a variational air-mass dependent component and a scan-angle component. The air-mass component is updated within the GSI, while the scan-angle component is updated outside the GSI. This study examines and enhances several aspects of the radiance bias-correction problem. First, a modified pre-conditioning is applied to the bias-correction coefficients and the analysis variables to speed up convergence of the minimization process. A new procedure for applying the modified pre-conditioning in the GSI is utilized. Second, capabilities for detecting any new/missing/recovering radiance data and initializing the bias correction for new radiance data are implemented. A new scheme is proposed and employed to adjust the background-error variances for the bias-correction coefficients automatically, using an approximation of the analysis-error variances from the previous cycle, and to remove the pre-specified predictor scaling parameters. Finally, the capability to perform bias correction for passive channels within the GSI is developed with a new approach. The two-step bias-correction procedure originally used is replaced with a one-step variational bias-correction scheme within the GSI. Experiment results with the GSI-based hybrid ensemble-variational system show that using the modified pre-conditioning leads to a better convergence rate. Moreover, with the one-step scheme, the anomaly correlation of geopotential height at 500 mb is neutral in the Northern Hemisphere but improved in the Southern Hemisphere. The root-mean-square (RMS) error of wind is comparable to that of the two-step scheme and the biases of the global temperature 24 h and 48 h forecasts fitted to the rawinsonde are reduced.}, + langid = {english}, + keywords = {data assimilation,GSI,radiance bias correction}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Zhu/zhu_2014_enhanced_radiance_bias_correction_in_the_national_centers_for_environmental.pdf} +} + +@article{zhu2016, + title = {All-{{Sky Microwave Radiance Assimilation}} in {{NCEP}}’s {{GSI Analysis System}}}, + author = {Zhu, Yanqiu and Liu, Emily and Mahajan, Rahul and Thomas, Catherine and Groff, David and Van Delst, Paul and Collard, Andrew and Kleist, Daryl and Treadon, Russ and Derber, John C.}, + date = {2016-09-15}, + journaltitle = {Monthly Weather Review}, + shortjournal = {Mon. Wea. Rev.}, + volume = {144}, + number = {12}, + pages = {4709--4735}, + publisher = {{American Meteorological Society}}, + issn = {0027-0644}, + doi = {10.1175/MWR-D-15-0445.1}, + url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0445.1}, + urldate = {2020-06-04}, + abstract = {The capability of all-sky microwave radiance assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system has been developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This development effort required the adaptation of quality control, observation error assignment, bias correction, and background error covariance to all-sky conditions within the ensemble–variational (EnVar) framework. The assimilation of cloudy radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) microwave radiometer for ocean fields of view (FOVs) is the primary emphasis of this study.In the original operational hybrid 3D EnVar Global Forecast System (GFS), the clear-sky approach for radiance data assimilation is applied. Changes to data thinning and quality control have allowed all-sky satellite radiances to be assimilated in the GSI. Along with the symmetric observation error assignment, additional situation-dependent observation error inflation is employed for all-sky conditions. Moreover, in addition to the current radiance bias correction, a new bias correction strategy has been applied to all-sky radiances. In this work, the static background error variance and the ensemble spread of cloud water are examined, and the levels of cloud variability from the ensemble forecast in single- and dual-resolution configurations are discussed. Overall, the all-sky approach provides more realistic simulated brightness temperatures and cloud water analysis increments, and improves analysis off the west coasts of the continents by reducing a known bias in stratus. An approximate 10\% increase in the use of AMSU-A channels 1–5 and a 12\% increase for channel 15 are also observed. The all-sky AMSU-A radiance assimilation became operational in the 4D EnVar GFS system upgrade of 12 May 2016.}, + file = {/home/pao/Dropbox/Papers Zotero/Zhu/zhu_2016_all-sky_microwave_radiance_assimilation_in_ncep’s_gsi_analysis_system.pdf;/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/M3GVHDTE/Zhu et al_2016_All-Sky Microwave Radiance Assimilation in NCEP’s GSI Analysis System.pdf} +} + +@article{zhu2019, + title = {The {{Impact}} of {{Satellite Radiance Data Assimilation}} within a {{Frequently Updated Regional Forecast System Using}} a {{GSI-based Ensemble Kalman Filter}}}, + author = {Zhu, Kefeng and Xue, Ming and Pan, Yujie and Hu, Ming and Benjamin, Stanley G. and Weygandt, Stephen S. and Lin, Haidao}, + date = {2019-12}, + journaltitle = {Advances in Atmospheric Sciences}, + shortjournal = {Adv. Atmos. Sci.}, + volume = {36}, + number = {12}, + pages = {1308--1326}, + issn = {0256-1530, 1861-9533}, + doi = {10.1007/s00376-019-9011-3}, + url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00376-019-9011-3}, + urldate = {2020-05-21}, + abstract = {A regional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (DA) and forecast system was recently established based on the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system. The EnKF DA system was tested with continuous threehourly updated cycles followed by 18-h deterministic forecasts from every three-hourly ensemble mean analysis. Initial tests showed negative to neutral impacts of assimilating satellite radiance data due to the improper bias correction procedure. In this study, two bias correction schemes within the established EnKF DA system are investigated and the impact of assimilating additional polar-orbiting satellite radiance is also investigated. Two group experiments are conducted. The purpose of the first group is to evaluate the bias correction procedure. Two online bias correction methods based on GSI 3DVar and EnKF algorithms are used to assimilate AMSU-A radiance data. Results show that both variational and EnKF-based bias correction procedures effectively reduce the observation and background radiance differences, achieving positive impacts on forecasts. With proper bias correction, we assimilate full radiance observations including AMSU-A, AMSU-B, AIRS, HIRS3/4, and MHS in the second group. The relative percentage improvements (RPIs) for all forecast variables compared to those without radiance data assimilation are mostly positive, with the RPI of upper-air relative humidity being the largest. Additionally, precipitation forecasts on a downscaled 13-km grid from 40-km EnKF analyses are also improved by radiance assimilation for almost all forecast hours.}, + langid = {english}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/RQFFCFEQ/Zhu et al. - 2019 - The Impact of Satellite Radiance Data Assimilation.pdf} +} + +@online{zotero-743, + title = {Curso: 188 - Visualización de la Información, Tema: Informe 1}, + shorttitle = {Curso}, + url = {https://campus.unab.edu.ar/course/view.php?id=264§ion=16}, + urldate = {2023-03-19}, + langid = {spanish}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/ELKY4R9P/view.html} +} + +@online{zotero-748, + title = {Correo: {{Paola Corrales}} - {{Outlook}}}, + url = {https://outlook.live.com/mail/0/}, + urldate = {2023-02-20}, + file = {/home/pao/Zotero/zotero-library/storage/JEPULZ4T/0.html} +}